There is every reason to believe that HRC WILL out perform her current national poll advantage. Take a look at this RCP chart (link below). On this date of October 22, 2012, Romney actually held a .4 % point lead over O in the RCP national polling aggregate: R: 47.6 O: 47.2. The national average on RCP went back and forth between the two men until election day with neither candidate having a lead of more than 1% over the other. Both men had strong, enthusiastic support within their respective parties. Though arguably O’s ground game was superior to R’s, the latter certainly had a complete, competent and professional group on the ground throughout the campaign. On election day, O, the favorite according to RCP’s average by a mere .7%, won the election going away by 3.86%.
It is also interesting to note that, despite Kellyanne Conway’s taunt calling HRC Mrs. 45%, the RCP average has her at 48%. As such, she is outperforming O who stood at 47.6% on this date. In fact, the final polling average number for O on election day was only 48.8%, yet he won at 51.01%. He obviously overperformed the national polling. And unlike HRC, O did not have a significant third party candidate taking a bite out of the electorate pie. Also remember, to many grass roots D’s, O’s first term was a disappointment and, therefore, they were not fired up and ready to go like they were in ‘08. Many D Congressional candidates ran away from his record. The R’s were amped to make him a one term president. Thus, O’s outperformance can’t be easily explained by reasons other than a superior ground game and GOTV operation.
If we compare the present political climate to that of O’s in 2012, we see the perfect storm brewing for HRC to dramatically outperform her present polling advantage of 6.1. HRC has succeeded in generating enthusiastic support for her within the D party as opposed to gaining votes simply to stop T. The entire D party is coalescing behind her candidacy and the days of Bernie or bust and Debra Wasserman Schultz are a distant, bad memory. On the other hand, the R’s are a fractured party with their coalitions crumbling, especially and dramatically, among suburban women. T’s base of uneducated white men may very well not show up in the numbers needed to sustain T’s ceiling of 42% given that they have been told and believe that the entire system is “rigged” against them. Simply put, it appears that the HRC D coalition is coming together with great ferocity and the R’s coalition is disintegrating in historic ways. All this is before we get to HRC’s cutting edge ground and GOTV operation advantage over T’s non-existent, we don’t need one ‘cause we have rally’s, ground and GOTV operation.
I intuit, furthermore, that the vast majority of Americans have had it up to their eyeballs with the Orange Haired bile spewing freak and will let out a massive, cataclysmic primal scream when rejecting him on November 8, 2016.
My prediction is the final numbers will be something like H: 54 T 39 J 5 S 2.
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