Leading Off:
● While the devastation all progressives feel over Tuesday night's presidential results cannot be overstated, we also cannot overlook the many bright spots for Democrats that these elections brought us. In a piece you'll want to read and share with your friends, David Beard walks us through these positive developments, including strong Democratic performances downballot out west that featured the pickups of several legislative chambers; the passage of many progressive ballot measures like those increasing the minimum wage and mandating medical leave; and the election of many reform-minded prosecutors in some of the nation's largest counties. In addition, notorious Maricopa County Sheriff Joe Arpaio, America's worst lawman, was finally turned out by voters in Arizona after decades in office.
This isn't about trying to put a positive spin on awful electoral developments (though there's nothing wrong with seeking solace). Rather, if Democrats are ever to regain our strength, it has to happen far from the spotlight, in the kinds of contests that are too easy to ignore because they simply aren't as sexy and exciting as the federal races that dominate the news. In other words, the kinds of contests Beard describes. We have to start rebuilding somewhere, and this is where.
Gubernatorial:
● CA-Gov: On Thursday, former Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa announced that he would run to succeed termed-out Gov. Jerry Brown in 2018. (Yes, it's time for 2018 for reals now!) Villaraigosa is the third major Democrat to kick off a bid. All the way back in 2015, Lt. Gov. Gavin Newsom made his campaign official, and state Treasurer John Chiang announced earlier this year. Ex-state schools Superintendent Delaine Eastin, who left office in 2003, also is running, though it doesn't seem likely that she has the connections to raise enough money to win in this expensive state.
And despite the already-crowded field, several other Democrats could also run here. Billionaire environmentalist Tom Steyer didn't rule anything out on Thursday, though he said that his "thinking has changed" now that Donald Trump has won, and he's considering focusing on fighting Trump's policies instead of seeking office. Venture capitalist Steve Westley, a former state controller who narrowly lost the 2006 primary, also has talked about getting in, while the San Francisco Chronicle calls state Senate leader Kevin de León a "rumored gubernatorial contender."
On the GOP side, San Diego Mayor Kevin Faulconer would almost certainly be Team Red's best get. In May, Faulconer said that he would serve out his entire four-year term if he was re-elected mayor, which he was weeks later. However, Faulconer wouldn't be first politician to break such a pledge, and he continues to get the Great Mentioner treatment to this day. All the candidates will compete on one ballot in June of 2018, and the top two vote-getters will advance to the November general.
By the way, you'll be hearing a lot about this Great Mentioner fellow in the coming year. Who is he? Why, he's that mysterious personage that reporters always seem to be channeling when they say that so-and-so candidate has been "mentioned" as a possible contender for such-and-such office. By whom exactly, we never quite know. All we can say is that we've heard about these folks … from the Great Mentioner!
● NM-Gov: Republican Gov. Susana Martinez is termed-out in 2018, and several prominent New Mexico politicians are eyeing her seat. Democratic Sen. Tom Udall confirmed on Wednesday that he's mulling a bid, saying he hopes to decide "very soon." Rep. Michelle Lujan Grisham, a Democrat who represents Albuquerque in the House, also said she was considering. Lujan Grisham didn't rule out running against Udall either, saying, "I certainly haven't been shy about jumping into primaries that are tough." The Santa Fe New Mexican also mentions state Attorney General Hector Balderas and Alan Webber, a businessman who lost the 2014 gubernatorial primary, as possible candidates.
On the GOP side, Rep. Steve Pearce told the Albuquerque Journal that he's considering, and that he'll "sit down and start looking at that sometime next year." Last year, Lt. Gov. John Sanchez talked about running to succeed his boss, though he doesn't seem to have said much since then. Albuquerque Mayor Richard Berry has also been mentioned as a possible candidate, though he doesn't appear to have publicly expressed interest yet.
House:
● AL-02: Republican Rep. Martha Roby's 49-41 win against Some Dude Nathan Mathis wasn't exactly a nail biter, but it was very weak for such a Trump-friendly area. That's largely because there were 22,000 write-in votes, or 11 percent of the total vote, that were cast in this Montgomery seat. AL.com reports that a write-in campaign was started by angry conservatives after Roby announced that she wouldn't vote for Trump after the Access Hollywood tape was released. Roby has more than a year before she needs to face primary voters again but if the grassroots remain pissed at her, she could have an interesting 2018.
● 2016 Tossups: We recently took a look at the dozen House races that flipped from one party to the other on Tuesday (Democrats won nine, the GOP took three). We're now taking a glance at the 14 House races that we rated as Tossups that didn't flip (one additional seat, CA-49, has not yet been called).
● CA-10: Republican Rep. Jeff Denham defeated Democrat Michael Eggman 52-48, though late ballots could shift the margin. Both parties spent heavily here late in the game, and Democrats hoped that Trump would be a liability for Denham in this seat, which is home to a large Hispanic population. However, it looks like, at the very least, Trump improved on Romney's 51-47 defeat. Almost three-quarters of the 10th is located in Modesto's Stanislaus County, which is entirely contained within the seat. While Obama won Stanislaus 50-47, Trump currently leads 48-47 there.
● CA-25: Democrats spent heavily here against GOP Rep. Steve Knight in the final month of the contest, but Knight nevertheless managed a 54-46 win against Democratic attorney Bryan Caforio.
● CO-06: Democrats hoped that Trump would be a drag in this affluent suburban Denver seat, but Republican Rep. Mike Coffman ended up turning in a decisive 51-42 win against Democratic state Sen. Morgan Carroll. During the 2014 GOP wave, Coffman pulled off a similar 52-43 victory in another race that attracted heavy spending from both sides.
● FL-26: While Democrats hoped that redistricting and Trump would give them a shot at this Miami seat, Republican Rep. Carlos Curbelo crushed ex-Rep. Joe Garcia 53-41. Garcia narrowly defeated the DCCC's favored candidate in the August primary, and the GOP quickly began reminding voters that his former campaign manager had gone to prison for a 2012 voter fraud scheme.
Garcia's own behavior made things worse: In September, he actually said that Hillary Clinton "is under no illusions that you want to have sex with her, or that she's going to seduce you." Garcia has been the Democratic nominee for a version of this seat every cycle beginning in 2008, winning just once (in 2012), and hopefully his double-digit loss convinces him to call it a career.
● IA-01: Republican Rep. Rod Blum narrowly won during the 2014 GOP wave in an eastern Iowa seat that Obama carried 56-43, and it originally looked like he was in real trouble this year. Instead, Blum turned in a strong 54-46 win against Democrat Monica Vernon. This is definitely one seat where Trump was an asset: Our preliminary data says that Trump carried this seat 49-45.
● ME-02: Republican Rep. Bruce Poliquin beat Emily Cain 55-45 in their rematch for this northern Maine seat. Democrats touted polls showing a tight race and both sides spent heavily here. But with Trump winning the 2nd District, there probably wasn't much of a path to victory for Cain here.
● MI-01: Republican Jack Bergman beat Democrat Lon Johnson 55-40 in this northern Michigan seat. This is a very conservative area, but it's been willing to back Democrats downballot before. Team Blue hoped that the well-funded Johnson could beat Bergman, a retired Marine lieutenant general who had little money and fairly weak ties to the area. But Trump did incredibly well in northern Michigan, and there may just not be enough local ticket-splitting here anymore to have given Johnson a good shot.
● MN-02: Republican Jason Lewis defeated Democrat Angie Craig 47-45 in this suburban Twin Cities seat. Democrats hoped that Trump would doom the GOP in this affluent seat, and Team Blue ran ad after ad using Lewis' many racist and sexist statements to link him to Trump. However, Trump actually carried this seat 46-45, so he was hardly the drag that Democrats wanted him to be.
● MN-08: For the second cycle in a row, Democratic Rep. Rick Nolan narrowly beat Republican Stewart Mills under horrific conditions. This time, Nolan prevailed 50.3-49.7 as Trump was carrying this Iron Range seat by a brutal 54-38. In 2014, Nolan beat Mills 49-47 during the GOP wave.
● NY-19: Republican John Faso beat Democrat Zephyr Teachout 55-45 in an expensive race for this Hudson Valley seat. This area is friendly to Republicans downballot, and Trump performed well upstate.
● NY-22: Republican Claudia Tenney survived the three-way race and beat Democrat Kim Myers 47-40. Wealthy independent Martin Babinec, who said he would caucus with the GOP if he won, grabbed the remaining 13 percent.
● PA-08: In one of the most expensive House races in the nation, Republican Brian Fitzpatrick beat Democrat Steve 54.5-45.5 to succeed his brother, Rep. Mike Fitzpatrick. This is another well-off suburban seat where Trump wasn't the drag that Democrats needed him to be, and the Fitzpatrick name didn't make things any easier.
● TX-23: Republican Rep. Will Hurd defeated Democrat Pete Gallego 49-47 in their rematch. This seat, which stretches from El Paso to San Antonio, has a large Hispanic population, but Hurd survived whatever damage Trump did to the ticket.
● VA-10: Republican Rep. Barbara Comstock beat Democrat LuAnn Bennett 53-47 in another suburban seat where Trump wasn't the liability Democrats needed him to be.
● 2016 Close Shaves: There were a few races where Democratic incumbents we rated as Safe won, but by a far closer margin than we expected.
● MN-01: Democratic Rep. Tim Walz beat Republican Jim Hagedorn just 50.4-49.6, just two years after Walz defeated him 54-46 during the GOP wave. Trump carried this southern Minnesota 53-38, a very different result than Obama's 50-48 win in 2012. Walz hasn't ruled out a 2018 bid to succeed retiring Gov. Mark Dayton, and it's unclear what impact his close call will have on his plans. The GOP wasn't able to find a credible candidate against Walz this year, but at the very least, their recruiting should go a lot better for 2018 after this.
● MN-07: Democratic Rep. Collin Peterson's 52-47 win against Some Dude Dave Hughes wasn't entirely suspenseful, but it's a bit closer than his 54-46 victory against a well-funded Republican during the 2014 GOP wave. Trump won this rural western Minnesota seat 61-31, far better than Romney's already-strong 54-44 performance. Peterson consistently flirts with retirement, and when he finally leaves, Democrats will have a very tough—if not impossible—time holding on here. However, Peterson told Roll Call a few weeks ago that he's enjoying his time in Congress more than before, and added, "As long as I think I'm making a difference, I'll probably keep going," so he may stick around a while longer. Still, it's a good bet that Team Red will look hard for a viable candidate for 2018.
● NH-02: Democratic Rep. Annie Kuster defeated underfunded ex-state Rep. Jim Lawrence 50-46. New Hampshire is a volatile state, and it's a good reminder that Kuster could be in for a tough fight in the future if the GOP can find a viable candidate and conditions are right.
Other Races:
● Bailing on D.C.: Three members of the House retired to run for positions other than senator this year, and all appear to have been successful.
● Democratic Rep. John Carney, who represents Delaware's lone House seat, handily defeated state Sen. Colin Bonini 58-39 to succeed term-limited Gov. Jack Markell. Carney's seat, meanwhile, will be filled by former state Labor Secretary Lisa Blunt Rochester, a Democrat who will become both the first woman and the first African-American to serve the state in Congress.
● Rather than seek re-election, Democratic Rep. Janice Hahn chose to run for the Los Angeles County Board of Supervisors, which might sound like an unusual choice. But the board is very powerful, and with 9.8 million people, Los Angeles is by far the largest county in the nation. Its members also recently became subject to term limits, creating an opportunity for Hahn, who currently has a wide 56-44 lead on Republican Steve Napolitano. While many mail ballots remain to be counted, Hahn's lead should hold up. If it does, that would give liberals a four-member supermajority on the officially nonpartisan five-member board.
Hahn's House seat (California's 44th District) was won by Hermosa Beach City Councilor Nanette Barragán in a narrow upset over state Sen. Isadore Hall, who had Hahn's backing.
● Republican Rep. Candice Miller of Michigan decided to leave Congress and seek a seemingly even more obscure position: Macomb County Public Works Commissioner. But the fight became hugely expensive, as Miller and the 24-year incumbent she was challenging, Democrat Anthony Marrocco, combined to spend $2.6 million. In the end, Miller beat Marrocco by a 55-45 spread, aided by Donald Trump's strength in this suburban Detroit county. Four years ago, Barack Obama carried it 51-47, but this time out, Trump won Macomb 52-42. Miller's 10th District was easily held by Republican Paul Mitchell.
● Don't Call It a Comeback, Dept.: At least three former House members who lost their seats earlier this decade tried to restart their careers on Tuesday by running for a different office, and none of them appear to have won.
● In 2008, Republican Joseph Cao defeated indicted Democratic Rep. Bill Jefferson in a low-turnout December race in an overwhelmingly blue New Orleans seat, then decisively lost re-election in 2010 to Democrat Cedric Richmond. For some reason, perhaps with John Boehner's 2008 declaration that "the future is Cao" still ringing in his ears, Cao ran for Louisiana's open Senate seat this year. But he raised very little money and took just 1 percent of the vote in the jungle primary.
● In 2012, redistricting threw Russ Carnahan into the same St. Louis district as fellow Democratic Rep. Lacy Clay, and Carnahan lost the primary 63-34. Carnahan decided to run for lieutenant governor this year, and while some polls showed a close race against Republican state Sen. Mike Parson, Carnahan lost 53-42 in the end.
● Ex-GOP Rep. David Rivera appears to have lost his bid for a Florida state House seat by 68 votes to Democrat Robert Asencio, though an automatic recount will begin on Friday. Rivera served one term in the House and got tossed 54-43 in 2012 after he was linked with an illegal effort to prop up one Justin Lamar Sternad, a ringer who was running in the Democratic primary. (Rivera hoped to face Rivera rather than a stronger foe like Joe Garcia, who went on to beat him.) Rivera ran for his old Miami-area congressional seat the next cycle, but he took just 7 percent in the primary. The former congressman has plenty of other ethical black clouds, and it's actually pretty dismaying this race was this close.
● Secretaries of State: A number of states (including some that have their gubernatorial elections in midterm years) held secretary of state elections on Tuesday, with four Democratic-held seats (mostly in red states) going Republican and just one heading in the opposite direction. The Democratic pickup was in New Mexico, where Bernalillo County Clerk Maggie Toulouse Oliver defeated state Rep. Nora Espinoza. This was a special election for an open seat, after GOP incumbent Dianna Duran resigned and was indicted in 2015 for misusing campaign contributions; Toulouse Oliver will serve the remaining two years of Duran's term.
The most unusual Republican pickup, meanwhile, came in Oregon, where ex-state Rep. Dennis Richardson defeated Labor Commissioner Brad Avakian. Richardson is the first Republican secretary of state elected in the Beaver State since 1980; the first Republican elected to any statewide downballot office since 1998; and the first Republican elected statewide at all since 2002 (when Gordon Smith was re-elected senator).
This may reflect an electorate seeking to give a consolation prize to Richardson, who lost the 2014 gubernatorial race by a narrower-than-expected margin to Democrat John Kitzhaber, who then promptly resigned amidst a scandal. (This was a regularly scheduled election, but it was an open seat because then-Secretary of State Kate Brown succeeded Kitzhaber as governor.) Richardson won't be able to single-handedly undo Oregon's revolutionary new automatic voter registration law passed by the legislature, but we'll have to see what obstacles Richardson, who's skeptical of the law, can create for it.
The GOP gained another secretary of state in West Virginia, where Democratic incumbent Natalie Tennant lost to Andrew Warner. (You may remember Tennant from 2014, when she got flattened in that year's Senate race.) The others were open seats in Montana, won by Corey Stapleton (last seen losing the state's Republican House primary in 2014 to now-Rep. Ryan Zinke), and Missouri, won by Jay Ashcroft, son of ex-Sen. John Ashcroft.
Mayoral:
● Atlanta, GA Mayor: Democratic Mayor Kasim Reed is termed out, and 2017's race to succeed him has already attracted several candidates. This week, state Sen. Vincent Fort announced he would run. The Atlanta Journal-Constitution says that, while Fort has a reputation for fighting with GOP Gov. Nathan Deal, he also has a horrible relationship with Reed. Fort also pissed off the state establishment earlier this year when he switched his support from Hillary Clinton to Bernie Sanders. Fort is making it clear that he won't be making nice with Reed anytime soon, declaring that "the establishment of Atlanta is the status quo. It is time for a change."
The mayoral race has been underway for well over a year, and Fort will have a lot of company on the ballot. City Councilor Mary Norwood, who lost the 2009 runoff to Reed by 600 votes, announced last month that she would try again. Norwood identifies as an independent in this heavily Democratic city; while city races are officially non-partisan, the state party sent out a mailer against her in her 2013 council race accusing her of trying to cover up her Republican past.
Several other notable candidates are also in, including city Council President Ceasar Mitchell; city Councilor Keisha Lance Bottoms; ex-City Council President Cathy Woolard, who would be the city's first openly gay mayor; Peter Aman, who served as Reed's chief operating officer; and Michael Sterling, who was Atlanta Workforce Development Agency head under Reed and also flirted with a U.S. Senate bid last year. Others could yet join.
Racial politics might also play a role in how this contest turns out: Fort, Mitchell, Bottoms, and Sterling are African-Americans, while Norwood, Woolard, or Aman would be the city's first white mayor since the mid-1970s. All the candidates will compete in November of next year; in the likely event that no one secures a majority, there will be a December runoff.
● Fresno, CA Mayor: Democrats were hoping that they could win this office for the first time in decades, but this was not their year. Republican Councilor Lee Brand holds a 53-46 lead over Democrat Henry R. Perea; while there are still ballots left to count, Perea has conceded.
● Honolulu, HI Mayor: Democratic Mayor Kirk Caldwell defeated ex-GOP Rep. Charles Djou 52-48 to win a second term in Tuesday's officially nonpartisan race. While partisan politics played a role (Caldwell earned an endorsement from President Obama), the dominant issue was Honolulu's controversial $8.6 billion rail project. Djou had acknowledged that it was too late to halt the project, but he argued that Caldwell was mismanaging it, an argument that fell just short.
● Richmond, VA Mayor: Virginia's capital city avoided a major embarrassment on Tuesday, as scandal-tarred ex-state Del. Joe Morrissey took a distant third place in the mayoral race. The winner was former Secretary of the Commonwealth Levar Stoney, a well-funded Democrat backed by Gov. Terry McAuliffe. Stoney narrowly outpaced ex-Venture Richmond executive Jack Berry 36-34, with Morrissey taking 21. Under Richmond's bizarre electoral system, a candidate can win without a runoff by taking a plurality in at least five of the nine city wards, and Stoney did just that.
Grab Bag:
● Where Are They Now?: Former Rep. Aaron Schock, a Republican who represented Illinois in the House until he resigned in 2015, has been indicted on 24 counts of violating federal law, including theft of government funds and filing false tax returns. Schock, first elected in 2008 at just 27, is accused, among other things, of submitting false requests to the government for reimbursement for mileage he never drove.
Schock's undoing began with a report early last year in the Washington Post that detailed his incredibly lavish congressional office inspired by the TV show "Downton Abbey." Questions about Schock's spending immediately followed, spurring the federal investigation that has now led to these criminal charges, some of which could carry sentences of up to 20 years.
The Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir, Jeff Singer, and Stephen Wolf, with additional contributions from David Jarman, Steve Singiser, Daniel Donner, and James Lambert.
