Ok, here is the latest Pollster.com topline. They are incredibly bullish on Hillary winning the presidency as of just a minute ago, also on the Senate switching hands:
Trump is dropping like a rock. Now down to a 1.3% chance of winning, while Hillary Clinton has surged all the way to 98.6%. Both of these measures are new highs and lows for Pollster.com Projections (for Hillary and Trump, respectively.)
Pollster.com gets into the calculations of how they reached these findings to come up with their election forecast, here:
FORECAST PRESIDENT SENATE
When you vote, you don’t elect the president: You tell your state’s electoral-college electors how to vote. In most states, all electors vote with the state’s popular opinion. If 51 percent of voters in California choose Hillary Clinton, all 55 of California’s electors will vote for Clinton — and none will vote for Donald Trump.
(Historically, a few so-called faithless electors have voted against popular opinion. They never changed the outcome of an election, so we don’t model them.)
We simulated a Nov. 8 election 10 million times using our state-by-state averages. In 9.9 million simulations, Hillary Clinton ended up with at least 270 electoral votes. Therefore, we say Clinton has a 98.6 percent chance of becoming president.
For the Senate:
Possible Seat Count
We simulated a Nov. 8 election 100 million times using our state-by-state probabilities. In 69.6 million simulations, Democrats ended up with at least 51 seats. Therefore, we say Democrats have a 69.6 percent chance of gaining control of the Senate.
Note that in the above graph Democrats are given a 70% chance of winning the Senate with a 51 seat majority. If we assume that Hillary wins the presidency (and at 98.6% that’s a very good bet) we are also looking at an additional 25% of a chance of getting at least 50 Senate seats with Tim Kaine holding the tie-breaker vote. That’s a chance of 95% of us getting to at least 50 Senate seats.
Here is the graph on the 10 Million computer simulations for why the model arrived at these new, for Democrats awesome, numbers so strongly over the last 3 days (remember, just 3 days ago Pollster.com’s projections gave Democrats only a 34% chance of winning 51 seats or more, but an overall chance of 64% to get to at least a 50-50 tie):
Further explanation why Pollster.com is so bullish on Hillary’s chances of winning the election is here:
New Polls Show Hillary Clinton Leading In Most Key States
Plenty of people seem ready to freak out, but the race remains as it was.
Okay, it’s not just about ratings. The polls do show that some states are close. But the level of panic that threatened to ensue if one poll showed Trump up in one state was baffling ― especially considering the other high-quality polls out on Wednesday. It shows just how uncertain politicos think this election is.
Yet Clinton is in a better place than Barack Obama was at this point in 2012. In theHuffPost Pollster chart, Obama widened his lead to just 1.5 percentage points over Mitt Romney nationally ― but that was good enough for Simon Jackman’s HuffPost model and Nate Silver’s FiveThirtyEight model to give Obama a 91 percent chance of winning. Obama’s odds in the states were good enough that he was predicted to get 332 electoral votes (which is what he got).
Clinton is currently about 6 points ahead of Trump in the HuffPost Pollster national chart, and our predictions give her 341 electoral votes. Assuming the polls haven’t become fundamentally more error-prone than in 2012, a 98 percent certainty of her election makes sense ― especially when compared with Obama’s 91 percent certainty with only a fraction of that lead. Maybe there are reasons to think 2016 is more uncertain than 2012 was; it certainly has been an unconventional year. But we’re trusting that pollsters have captured opinions reasonably well on average.
…..
So, even without Marquette, it would have been a decent day for Clinton ― nothing to imply that the race had dramatically turned toward Trump, which would have to happen soon if Trump is to win. The race remains as it was: Clinton is leading, with a very strong chance of winning. Could there be an upset? Sure. But the polls indicate a solid Clinton lead, and I see no reason to think they’re all wrong.
Meanwhile, over at Sam Wang’s site Princeton Election Consortium we are seeing Hillary’s numbers move all the way to virtually, almost, >< this close to 100% now in the Bayesian model, whereas random drift has been upgraded to 98%, also this morning:
Princeton Election Consortium
The Bayesian number actually read 100% in the wee hours this morning, but has been now updated to “>99%”, greater than 99%, because of a rounding glitch in the software.
Both of these projection sites moved stronger towards the position that Hillary wins this election than before yesterday, or the day before.
DK Elections is at 92%, which, with 5 days to go, is also excellent. DK Elections has also moved the Senate race to a 51 to 49 seat majority for Democrats, as of yesterday, at a 72% confidence level.
Meanwhile, the majority of fresh, latest polls shows good news for us this morning:
Aside from that ABC poll now at +2% for Hillary (was +1% for Trump 2 days ago) the latest Morning Consult poll shows a 5% lead for Hillary. UP 2% from their previous 3% on Monday:
These Senate polls as of a few minutes ago:
McGinty has been doing well against imcumbent Toomey in all PA polls (even those that showed a tight race for Hillary).
Ross’ strength against Burr in the Q poll is great to see. Burr is faltering, partly due to his own mistakes at the tail end of the campaign season.
Q has Hillary up in Florida by 1% (as per yesterday) but shows Rubio with a 6% lead against Murphy. However, the Opinion Savvy poll from just a few minutes ago shows Hillary leading Florida by 4% and the Rubio/Murphy race exactly tied — 45.2% for each.
On the downer side, Strickland is probably a lost cause against Portman in OH.
Things are looking good. Don’t let yourself be led astray by polls from strongly conservative sources with a strong R bias (like Dixie Strategies and Remington/Axiom.) Look at the overall trajectory of the race, look at the fact that there are 5 days to go.
GOTV is crucial, let’s get every last vote we can turning out. But, I am very confident about this election, optimistic and confident, more so than I was in 2012 when Obama went up against Romney, although I was also pretty confident then, too.
Just more so now.