Latino electorate both on track for historic turnout and routinely undercounted in polls

Daily Kos Staff

Thursday November 03, 2016 · 11:38 AM PDT

2016/11/03 · 11:38

JERSEY CITY, NJ - SEPTEMBER 17: One hundred immigrants become American citizens during a naturalization ceremony at Liberty State Park on September 17, 2015 in Jersey City, New Jersey. The group, representing 30 countries, took the oath of allegiance to the United States on U.S. Citizenship Day. They are part of some 36,000 people that United States Citizenship and Immigration Services (USCIS) plans to nationalize nationwide during the week of September 17-23. (Photo by John Moore/Getty Images)

Perhaps it seems obvious that this year of all years would yield a historic turnout by Latinos, among the most maligned of groups by GOP nominee Donald Trump. Indeed the polling firm Latino Decisions (LD) is projecting a record turnout of between 13.1 million and 14.7 million Latino voters, up from 11.2 million voters in 2012.

Latino Decisions also projects that 79 percent of Latinos will vote for Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton, 18 percent for Republican nominee Donald Trump, and the remaining three percent voting for other candidates. Clinton’s projected share is higher than both Latino Decisions’ estimated 75 percent Latino vote share and 71 percent exit poll share Democrat Barack Obama received during his 2012 re-election bid.

What's been interesting is how mainstream polling this year appears to have continually underestimated the Latino vote even as LD's weekly tracking poll consistently demonstrated far greater intensity to vote among the population this cycle. Latino Decisions has repeatedly raised this point, noting how it will affect overall outcomes.

ABC poll suggests Latinos will be 8% of electorate - down from 10% in 2012. LOL. Latino early vote in FL is up by over 100% compared to 12 https://t.co/JYEkXCT46I
— Latino Decisions (@LatinoDecisions) November 3, 2016

We are less than a week away from electing the first woman president. Will you help these five Democratic women win their House & Senate races, and give Hillary the support she needs in Congress? Click to sign up for a phone-banking shift.

Here’s another telling tweet:

The final 5 national polls release in 2012:
Tie, Obama+1, Romney+1, Tie, Romney+1.
Actual margin Obama +3.9
Bad Latino sample = Bad Poll pic.twitter.com/aMYFXwGXAz
— Latino Decisions (@LatinoDecisions) November 3, 2016

As we all know, polls are consistently getting less reliable, but one area where they have excelled at being reliably unreliable is in counting Latino voters, a voting bloc that is only growing stronger with each election cycle. Two states to keep an eye on this cycle to bring surprising results based on Latino turnout: Florida and Nevada. Here’s Nevada political guru Jon Ralston questioning the results of yesterday’s CNN/ORC poll showing Trump beating Clinton in Nevada 49 percent to 43 percent, with 5 percent supporting Libertarian Gary Johnson.

I'm also puzzled -- and this happened before -- why CNN doesn't have big enough sample of Latinos to break them out in crosstabs. Red flag.
— Jon Ralston (@RalstonReports) November 2, 2016

Red flag, indeed. Remember how Harry Reid was going to lose his seat to ol’ Sharron “Second Amendment remedies” Angle in 2010? As LD points out, the pre-election polling average had Angle up by about three points. But the Latino vote estimate for Reid in those polls was anywhere from 55 to 70 percent statewide. That was a major undercount according to Latino Decisions’ pre- and post-election eve polls, which estimated that Reid won 90 percent of Latino voters.

Had the pre-elections accurately estimated a 90-10 split, they would have had Reid leading Angle by 3-5 points.

Reid ultimately triumphed with a nearly six-point edge, 50.3 to 44.5 percent.

Thursday, Nov 3, 2016 · 11:46:36 PM +00:00 · Kerry Eleveld
UPDATE: Maybe we should Arizona to the list-->>AZ Central: Arizona leads nation in early-voting surge by Latinos.

Latino electorate both on track for historic turnout and routinely undercounted in polls

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