Leading Off:
● NJ-Sen: Sen. Bob Menendez may be under indictment on multiple counts of corruption, but a spokesperson says he "intends to run for re-election"—and New Jersey Democrats don't seem to want it any other way. The Record canvassed a trio of congressmembers, all of whom are sticking with the incumbent: Bill Pascrell ("I don't see any slippage at all"); Bonnie Watson Coleman ("He's still a strong leader"); and Donald Norcross ("doing an excellent job"). The head of the state Sierra Club is also on Team Menendez.
But while New Jersey politicians are known for displaying loyalty in the face of corruption, it could come at a price. Menendez has spent the last year-and-a-half appealing his indictment with little success, and he faces a trial date in September of next year. If he's found guilty, Democrats would have to scramble to find a mid-campaign replacement, and even if he's not, he could wind up even more damaged than he already is.
Luckily for Menendez, though, Republicans so far haven't shown much interest in tackling him. The Record mentions wealthy GOP Rep. Tom MacArthur as a possibility, but he hasn't said anything, nor has anyone else. However, Republicans and even some Democrats might be waiting until next year's gubernatorial race plays out before making any moves on the Senate side. Menendez also benefits from the fact that New Jersey hasn't elected a Republican to the Senate since 1972, and the NRSC will be preoccupied with many other races in 2018.
But Garden State Democrats nearly fumbled a race in 2002, when another senator with a reputation for shabby ethics, Bob Torricelli, nearly took the party down with him until he agreed to step aside for former Sen. Frank Lautenberg at the last minute. Ironically—or perhaps perfectly, for Jersey—the only person who's actually even hinted he might run against Menendez is … Torricelli.
Senate:
● PA-Sen: This got lost in the immediate post-election shuffle, but shortly after Election Day, Democratic Sen. Bob Casey confirmed that he would seek re-election in 2018. Mercifully, Casey gave an extremely clear and unambiguous answer when asked directly about his plans by Chuck Todd:
Todd: Are you running for re-election for sure? Have you decided yet?
Casey: Yes, I will be, Chuck.
A model of clarity! Note to all politicians, especially incumbents: Don't be coy—be Bob!
● UT-Sen: Former Gov. John Huntsman has confirmed that he's considering a bid for Senate, but it seems that he'd prefer an open seat rather than face Sen. Orrin Hatch in a potential GOP primary. And that's certainly what everyone expected to get: Before winning re-election in 2012, Hatch had said that campaign would be his last. Now, though, at the age of 82, he's suggesting he might yet run again.
Huntsman, however, wants him gone, saying that Hatch has "been a productive senator for nearly half a century"—and adds that he believes in term limits. (Seriously, dude, fifty years in the Senate max!) But it sounds like Huntsman might be willing to run even if Hatch doesn't retire, and at least two other Utah Republicans, state Attorney General Sean Reyes and state Sen. Deidre Henderson, haven't ruled out campaigns of their own.
● WV-Sen: A new survey from Republican pollster Harper Polling shows Democratic Sen. Joe Manchin starting off in healthy shape for re-election, despite the fact that West Virginia was Donald Trump's second-best state. Manchin sports a 56-42 favorability rating, and he's over 50 percent in hypothetical head-to-heads against a quartet of possible GOP challengers (none of whom have said anything about running yet):
51-39 vs. Rep. Evan Jenkins
54-34 vs. Rep. David McKinley
57-35 vs. state Attorney General Patrick Morrisey
58-28 vs. Rep. Alex Mooney
Of course, this is all very early, and we'll see how Manchin looks after two years of pounding GOP attacks. It's also been a while since he last spoke about his re-election plans. Last year, Manchin considered a gubernatorial bid but ultimately declined; at the time, he said, "I will run for re-election," but given the arc of American politics lately, someone ought to check in with him again.
And if Manchin were not to run again, Democrats would almost certainly lose his seat. Harper also tested former Sen. Carte Goodwin, who briefly served in the Senate after Robert Byrd died in 2010, as an alternative. Goodwin trails every candidate but the carpetbagging Mooney, and even in that matchup, Goodwin only manages 41 percent of the vote (he's in the 30s against everyone else). This is Team Blue's last stand in the Mountain State, and as much as Manchin drives most Democrats up a wall, it's Manchin or bust.
Gubernatorial:
● MN-Gov, MN-Sen: Democratic Sen. Amy Klobuchar is up for re-election in 2018, but her staff didn't rule out the idea that she might run for governor instead. The Star Tribune recently mentioned ex-GOP Gov. Tim Pawlenty as a possible Senate candidate if Klobuchar vacates her seat. Local radio host Dave Lee recently asked Pawlenty if he was interested in running for governor again, and Pawlenty offered a "I'm politically retired, Dave. I've hung it up." That's not a no.
And when Lee asked Pawlenty about a possible Senate run, Pawlenty responded by summarizing his career in Minnesota politics, noting that he and his wife still live in the state, and concluded by saying, "But as far as my political career, I tell people I'm politically retired." Again, there are plenty of ways politicians can make it clear that they're not interested in running for office, and this is not one of them: After all, plenty of politicians come out of retirement to run for office years later, though of course they don't always win.
There are many Democrats and Republicans looking at running for governor in 2018, and unsurprisingly, a SurveyUSA poll finds that Klobuchar and Pawlenty would be the early favorites in their primaries if they run. In a hypothetical Democratic primary, Klobuchar takes 25 percent of the vote while ex-Minneapolis Mayor R.T. Rybak, who has actually made it clear that he won't run, grabs second with 6 percent. On the GOP side, Pawlenty takes 19, while Rep. Erik Paulsen is second with 8 percent.
● SC-Gov: This is why we don't like politicians. Just a week ago, GOP Sen. Tim Scott pretended as though he was giving nary a thought to the possibility of running for governor, telling Politico, "I don't know about all that." But he wore a grin as he said this (or was it a smirk?), and his own office had put out a statement not long before in which he unquestionably did not rule out a bid.
And guess what? Now Scott finally admits that he is thinking about it and says that he'll decide "in the first quarter" of next year. Why was that so hard! Ugh. Seriously, don't be like Tim.
Anyway, Scott's chief holdup is the fact that Lt. Gov. Henry McMaster is on the verge of becoming governor himself, once the Senate confirms Gov. Nikki Haley as Donald Trump's ambassador to the United Nations. That would of course allow McMaster, a big Trump supporter, to run as the incumbent, but Scott's probably strong enough to give him a serious challenge regardless. We'll see if he can keep his word and let us know what's going on by March 31, 2017.
Meanwhile, one potential McMaster rival has now joined his team. Rich guy Bill Stern had been considering a bid, but now he's working on McMaster's transition efforts. Politics is a rough business, but there still aren't many people who would sign up to help someone with their transition and then run against them a few months later. Maybe Lyndon Johnson would try that, but we doubt Stern is the next LBJ. Also, we don't think that Robert Caro would be interested in writing five volumes about Bill Stern.
House:
● GA-06: It's hard not to feel a pit in your stomach at the news that Donald Trump has picked GOP Rep. Tom Price to run the Department of Health and Human Services: Price is the fiercest enemy of Obamacare in Congress, and as Sarah Kliff observes, his appointment signals that Trump is "dead serious about dismantling" the Affordable Care Act. So horrific is the news—millions will lose their health insurance, including, Paul Krugman estimates, some 5.5 million Trump voters—that we can't even bring ourselves to say there's any kind of silver lining here. But assuming Price's nomination goes through, there will be special election, and it could be notable.
That's because the man promoting Price proved to be extraordinarily unpopular in the congressman's own district. Mitt Romney won Georgia's 6th, in suburban Atlanta, by a dominant 61-37 margin, making it the kind of dark red seat Democrats would typically have no shot at. But the 6th is also one of the best-educated and wealthiest districts in the country: 60 percent of residents have bachelor's degrees, the sixth-highest in the nation, and the median household income is almost $84,000, the 33rd best.
As a result, the district turned sharply against Trump, giving him just a 48-47 win over Hillary Clinton—a 23-point collapse. And presidential results like that, at least in the pre-Trump era, typically signify a swingy district that could go either way downballot.
But is that what we've got here? It's hard to say. Price easily won re-election (albeit against a Some Dude) by a 62-38 margin, suggesting that he didn't face much of an undertow due to Trump—and that was with Trump actually on the ballot. In a special election, disgusted Republican voters might just breathe a sigh of relief and go right back to their old habits without a second thought.
However, that 62 percent showing was also the weakest of Price's career, and it came against an opponent who literally raised zero dollars. Republicans could very well wind up with a candidate identified closely with Trump, and if Democrats can put forward someone serious, they could frame the election as a referendum on the president. Of course, these are big "ifs," and Team Blue doesn't have much of a bench here, while Republicans do.
But the Atlanta Journal-Constitution's Greg Bluestein cites unnamed "Democrats" who "vow to field a promising recruit," and he mentions state Reps. Scott Holcomb and Taylor Bennett as possibilities. (Bennett just lost re-election by a narrow 51-49 margin.) Bluestein also names no fewer than a dozen potential GOP candidates, including Price's wife, state Rep. Betty Price, and former Secretary of State Karen Handel. So far, though, the only one to publicly declare any interest is immigration attorney Charles Kuck.
The election won't be for a while, though. Price would probably not resign from the House until he's confirmed by the Senate, which won't happen until January at the earliest. At that point, Gov. Nathan Deal would call a special election, which wouldn't take place for at least another 30 days after the seat becomes vacant. Note that all candidates from all parties will run together on a single ballot, with the top two vote-getters advancing to a runoff if no one clears 50 percent in the first round.
In the meantime, Democrats shouldn't get their hopes up: Flipping this seat will still be very difficult, regardless of what happened here during the presidential election. And Trump may yet benefit from a traditional "honeymoon" period after he's sworn in, which could ameliorate his electoral toxicity. But this is still a test worth watching.
Legislative:
● CA State Senate, State Assembly: After three weeks of counting votes, Democrat Josh Newman finally prevailed in California's key 29th District state Senate race in Orange County. With 27 of 40 state Senate seats and 55 of 80 state Assembly seats, Democrats will now have over two-thirds of seats in both chambers, regaining the coveted legislative supermajority they held from 2012 to 2014. This threshold is crucial for legislation because California requires a two-thirds vote for any tax increase thanks to 1978's Proposition 13.
With Republicans steadfastly against even the most popular of increases, progressives previously had to take any sort of new taxes directly to the voters via ballot initiatives. However, now Democrats will theoretically have enough support on their own to raise new revenue directly, and they are discussing using it to fund vitally needed transportation infrastructure, health-care programs, and even making the tax system itself fairer.
Other Races:
● Brooklyn, NY District Attorney: Just days before his shocking death at the age of 50, Brooklyn District Attorney Ken Thompson named his top deputy, Eric Gonzalez, as acting district attorney in his stead. After Thompson died, Gov. Andrew Cuomo had the chance to appoint a different interim DA, but he ultimately stuck with Gonzalez after the legal community in Brooklyn rallied around him.
Now, in addition to running a major law enforcement agency during a difficult transition period, Gonzalez has to decide whether or not to run for election in his own right. He hasn't announced any plans yet, though he is considering a bid. But despite the high esteem in which he's held, Gonzalez is very much a non-politician and could face a challenge in the all-important Democratic primary. The New York Times mentions Public Advocate Letitia James, former prosecutor Anne Swern, and criminal defense attorney Arthur Aidala as possible opponents. Potential contenders—including Gonzalez himself—don't have long to decide, as this post is up next year.
Grab Bag:
● Pres-by-CD: We're rolling out five more states from our project to calculate the presidential election results by congressional district: Arkansas, Hawaii, Idaho, New Mexico, and the commonwealth of Kentucky. We have a chart of all 435 congressional districts here, which also includes results from 2012. That's the page you'll want to bookmark, since we're updating it continuously. We'll be pushing out new data on a rolling basis as the results are officially certified and the precinct-level election results we need for our calculations become available. (Ballotpedia has a list of state certification deadlines.)
None of these states hosted any competitive general elections in 2016, and none of these 17 congressional districts was at all close in the presidential race. Hillary Clinton carried both of Hawaii's seats, New Mexico's 1st and 3rd District, and Kentucky's 3rd District by double digits. Donald Trump carried all four Arkansas seats, both Idaho districts, New Mexico's 2nd District, and the other five Kentucky seats, also by double digits. All of these seats are represented in the House by the party that won them in the presidential contest.
There are a few interesting nuggets buried here. Arkansas' 2nd District, which is based around Little Rock and represented by Rep. French Hill, went for Trump 52-42, which is a little closer than Romney's 55-43 win in 2012. This is still far from a swing seat, but it may be winnable for Team Blue in a wave year. Trump took at least 60 percent of the vote in each of the other three seats.
Both of Idaho's seats are solidly red, but Trump's 64-25 win in the 1st District was noticeably stronger than his 54-30 victory in the 2nd. Conservative independent Evan McMullin did relatively well in eastern Idaho, and he took second place against Trump in quite a few counties.
Clinton did noticeably worse than Hawaii's native son Barack Obama in both seats, but she still won with ease. The 1st, which includes much of Honolulu, went from 70-29 Obama to 63-31 Clinton. The 2nd, which includes the rest of the state, went from 71-27 Obama to 61-30 Clinton.
We have an early candidate for reddest congressional district in the nation. Trump carried Kentucky's 5th, located in rural eastern Kentucky, by an 80-17 margin; Romney won this seat "just" 75-23. Over in the Louisville based 3rd District, Rep. John Yarmuth, Kentucky's only Democratic member of Congress, looks safe. Clinton carried his seat 55-40, a little better than Obama's 56-43. However, Republicans just won full control of Kentucky's state government for the first time in generations and when it's time to draw up a new congressional map, they may find a way to turn this seat red.
Democrats hold two of New Mexico's three seats, and that's unlikely to change soon. The 1st, based around Albuquerque, backed Clinton 52-35, a slightly larger margin of victory from Obama's 55-40 win here. The 3rd, located in the northern part of the state, backed Clinton 52-37, a considerable drop from Obama's 58-39 win, but still not incredibly close. The 2nd, which is located in the south, has a large Hispanic population, but Trump didn't exactly lead to a backlash against Team Red here. Trump carried the seat 50-40, a bit better than Romney's 52-45 win.
The Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir, Jeff Singer, and Stephen Wolf, with additional contributions from David Jarman, Steve Singiser, Daniel Donner, and James Lambert.
