Siena takes another look at the three-way race for New York’s 22nd Congressional District, an open seat that includes Utica and Binghamton. They give Republican Claudia Tenney a 38-34 lead over Democrat Kim Myers, with wealthy independent Martin Babinec at 16. While Romney won this seat by less than half of a percentage point, they have Donald Trump up by a solid 46-32 margin. One month ago, Siena had Tenney leading Myers by a similar 35-30, while Babinec took a larger 24 percent, and Trump led 46-35.
While Babinec’s commercials have mostly portrayed him as a non-ideological businessman, he’s pledged to caucus with the GOP if he wins. Republicans have aired ads attacking both him and Myers, while Democratic spots have subtly tried to persuade conservatives to switch from Tenney to him. Back in October, Siena found Babinec winning an almost equal proportion of Democrats, Republicans, and independents, but that’s changed a bit. This time they have Babinec grabbing 22 percent of independents, 18 percent of Republicans, and 13 percent of Democrats.
