This is it, the day before the Big Day, the one in which we elect our first woman president. It’s been funny seeing the political personalities in play. Conservatives are forever confident, strutting around as if Donald Trump has this thing in the bag, in defiance of all possible empiric evidence to the contrary. Meanwhile, liberals are flipping the f’ out, paranoid about losing tomorrow, again in violation of all empirical evidence. Fact is, it’s not even close.
Our very own Drew Linzer, the most accurate forecaster the last two cycles, has his projection: Clinton 323, Trump 215. I’ll have my own prediction later today. Our Elections folks have their own election prediction contest. Take a moment to enter! But for now, let’s take one last look at the underlying data:
2016 BATTLEGROUND PRESIDENTIAL MATCHUPS
|
11/7 |
11/2 |
10/19 |
10/14 |
US |
C+5.2 |
C+5.2 |
C+8.2 |
C+8.4 |
AZ (11) |
T+3.2 |
T+1.0 |
C+1.8 |
T+0.1 |
CO (9) |
C+3.5 |
C+4.6 |
C+6.6 |
C+6.1 |
FL (29) |
C+0.2 |
C+1.4 |
C+4.5 |
C+4.2 |
GA (16) |
T+3.8 |
T+2.4 |
C+0.1 |
T+0.2 |
IA (6) |
T+4.3 |
T+3.1 |
C+1.1 |
T+0.4 |
MI (16) |
C+6.0 |
C+8.5 |
|
|
NV (6) |
T+0.5 |
C+0.7 |
C+2.7 |
C+2.1 |
NH (4) |
C+2.7 |
C+5.7 |
C+6.8 |
C+6.4 |
NC (15) |
T+0.5 |
C+1.6 |
C+3.1 |
C+2.6 |
OH (18) |
T+1.9 |
T+1.3 |
C+1.7 |
C+2.0 |
PA (20) |
C+3.8 |
C+4.8 |
C+7.7 |
C+7.4 |
WI (10) |
C+4.9 |
C+6.0 |
C+8.1 |
C+7.9 |
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Several things:
1) State polling always lags national polls. National tracking polls adjust those numbers frequently, while we have to wait up to one week later to see changes in state numbers. Thus, state numbers tightened compared to a week ago, as FBI Director James Comey’s meddlesome letter continued to be factored into those numbers. What those state polls are not showing is what’s reflected in the latest national polls—movement back toward Clinton.
2) I’ve taken Alaska, Missouri, Texas, and Utah. FBI Director James Comey’s meddling in the election, along with the media’s insanely stupid coverage, sucked out Clinton’s momentum and energized moribund conservative voters. Apparently, say the word “email” and they start salivating like Pavlov’s dogs despite utter ignorance about the email non-scandal. Thus, red states and the precipice of staging upsets settled back down to where they belong, though don’t be surprised if margins are tighter than historical norms.
3) You may notice that Linzer’s predictions have North Carolina and Nevada going blue, while the data above has them going Trump. So what’s that about? Well, this polling aggregate gives more weight to recent numbers than the model’s “final call,” so to speak. We won’t have today’s polls factored in until later this afternoon, but they are looking good for Clinton. Look at the latest numbers out of Nevada and North Carolina, and odds are that those states will flip on the chart above tomorrow. But again, Linzer’s ultimate prediction won’t move much, no matter how much the polls move today, because those predictions are based on a broader data set than the last few polls. That’s why Linzer could make his final call today, unworried about what the last set of polling numbers might look like.
Still, I’ll update this feature one more time tomorrow morning.
4) The numbers above, even losing North Carolina and Nevada, have us looking like this:
It’s still not a close election, even considering week-old snapshots of battleground states, at the nadir of Clinton’s post-Comey situation. Things look even better now, and that’s not even including early vote numbers that show us locking down Nevada (and maybe Florida?) before Tuesday even arrives.
We got this. Let’s close strong.