I’ve noticed a common thread lately, in both some of my diaries as well as diaries from other Kossacks. Whenever we talk about or even hint at a possible rift between Trump and the “establishment” GOP, we are reminded multiple times in the comments that “Democrats fall in love, Republicans fall in line”. Hell, I’ve even used that old line in diaries of my own. But I’m not so sure that it applies on this occasion.
Here’s why. Usually, when you’re choosing between two different GOP candidates, it’s like choosing between chocolate chip ice cream or chocolate chip cookie dough ice cream. It’s a matter of personal taste, the underlying flavor is the same, in this case rock headed conservatism. It’s easy to fall in line since the underlying principles are the same, just the peripherals differ.
This is not the case with Trump. Choosing between a traditional GOP candidate and Trump is like trying to decide between a hamburger and General Tso’s chicken, they’re nothing alike. And look, I get the sentiment, it doesn’t matter. Trump won, so everybody will just fall in line and do as he says, I get that.
There’s one problem, where the “establishment” GOP is concerned, Trump is not a Republican, he has no loyalty to the party, he proved that repeatedly during both the primaries and the general campaign, calling out the party and threatening to go it on his own. People like Paul Ryan and Mitch McConnell are thinking that they have Trump under heel, Reince Priebus is in Trump’s ear, and they’ll just use flattery and his lack of interest to get him to rubber stamp whatever they pass. But they may be making a fatal miscalculation.
Trump doesn’t need them, their empty flattery, nor Priebus constantly tongue polishing his Gucci kiltie golf shoes. What The Orange Julius requires is widespread adoration and YUGE popularity numbers to make him feel loved. The problem is that a lot of the stuff that the establishment wing of the GOP wants to pass is stuff that his base will hate. Given a choice between pleasing Priebus and Ryan for hollow praise and giving his rabid base a case of the warm fuzzies, I’m betting that Trump is gonna need a refill cartridge for his Veto Pen. And considering the fact that most of the stuff the GOP wants to pass is hated by the Democrats as well, good luck to Ryan and McConnell trying to scrape together a 2/3 majority to override the veto.
The gate swings both ways. Trump can propose any old kind of legislation he wants, “big, beautiful walls”, Muslim bans, whatever. But if the establishment hates this stuff, or sees it as self destructive, it dies in committee, there’s nothing Trump can do, especially if they’re pissed at him for vetoing some of their toys.
This is not to say we’re not in for a rough ride. There are plenty of odious plans, such as ACA repeal, slash and burn tax reform and Wall St and industrial deregulation are already agreed on by both sides of the GOP. They can ram this through easily. But the GOP wants to trim the deficit, and Trump wants to blow it up with a trillion dollar infrastructure package, not a natural mix. Ryan wants to gut Medicare, but Trump has stated that he doesn’t want to tinker with it or threaten it. The list goes on and on. The thing to remember is that while this screwing the public might all be business as usual for the GOP, Trump is looking at these things through the lens of how it affects his popularity, not whether it’s the right or politically expedient thing to do.
Trump is famous for “going with his gut”. This makes it almost impossible to read him, not just for us everyday shlubs, but for everybody. Trump will not “do” something and try to walk it back if it goes sour on him, his mentality is to double down on it. Instead, what he’ll do is to look a situation, try to crystal ball what effect his decision will have on his popularity, and then act on that instinct. A man who worships at the altar of damage prevention as opposed to damage control is going to make it very difficult to get him to step out of his security cocoon and go for broke.