As we do every four years, Daily Kos Elections is calculating the results of the 2016 presidential election for all 435 congressional districts, and this series of posts explores the most interesting results on a state-by-state basis. You can find our complete data set here, which we’re updating continuously as the precinct-level election returns we need for our calculations become available. You can also click here to learn more about why this data is so difficult to come by.
Hillary Clinton carried California 62-32, a stronger margin than Barack Obama's already-dominant 60-37 win four years ago. Clinton carried 46 of the Golden State's 53 congressional districts, winning five Mitt Romney seats while losing none of the districts that Obama took. Of California's 14 Republican House members, seven of them sit in Clinton seats, while no Democrats hold Donald Trump turf. We'll start by looking at those seven Republicans.
National Democrats targeted four Republican incumbents in the state, but they each won even as Clinton was taking their seats. The 10th District, which includes Modesto, backed her 49-46, not very different than Obama's 51-47 win here. However, Republican Rep. Jeff Denham held off Michael Eggman 52-48. Clinton carried the 21st around Fresno 55-40, an improvement on Obama's 55-44 win. However, her coattails did little to hurt Republican Rep. David Valadao, who blasted past Democrat Emilio Huerta 57-43.
The 25th, which includes the Antelope Valley north of Los Angeles, swung from 50-48 Romney to 50-43 Clinton. Still, Republican Rep. Steve Knight turned back an expensive campaign to unseat him and won 53-47. Finally, the suburban San Diego 49th District went from 52-46 Romney to 51-43 Clinton. But while Democrats spent heavily against the hated Rep. Darrell Issa, he still pulled off a thin 50.3-49.7 win against Democrat Doug Applegate, who has already announced he's running again in 2018.
A trio of other Republicans sit in seats that Clinton ended up carrying, but they each easily won against underfunded opponents. Rep. Ed Royce's 39th District, which includes Fullerton in Orange County, went from 51-47 Romney to 51-43 Clinton. The Orange County-based 45th, which includes Irvine, dramatically shifted from 55-43 Romney to 50-44 Clinton. This seat was so foreboding that Democrats didn't make a play for it when it was open in 2014, and freshman Rep. Mimi Walters had no trouble in 2016 either, but this could be a future Democratic target.
Finally, the Huntington Beach-based 48th, which also includes Newport Beach and the home of Bluth's Original Frozen Banana Stand, went from 55-43 Romney to 48-46 Clinton. Republican Rep. Dana Rohrabacher has rarely had trouble winning re-election, but he hinted in early 2016 that he's considering retiring in 2018. Until recently, this Orange County seat looked like it would be an easy GOP hold, but that may not be true anymore. Even if Rohrabacher stays, Democrats may be encouraged to target the Putin-friendly incumbent. Trump only carried seven of California's 53 seats, but he easily took those seven. The closest Trump seat was the Central Valley's 22nd District, which went from 57-42 Romney to 52-43 Trump.
Most of California's Democratic congressmen had little to fear in 2016 from Republicans. (Defeated Rep. Mike Honda lost his safely blue Silicon Valley seat to another Democrat in the general.) The one exception was Rep. Ami Bera in the Suburban Sacramento 7th District, who turned back Republican Scott Jones 51-49 even as his seat went from just 51-47 Obama to 52-41 Clinton. Bera had a poor relationship with labor and got some bad headlines after his father was sentenced to prison for trying to illegally funnel money to Bera's campaign. Bera is a strong fundraiser and could scare off future GOP foes, but aspiring Republicans will at least be encouraged by how far Bera ran behind the ticket. The GOP also made a play for the open Santa Barbara 24th, which had gone for Obama 54-43. However, Clinton carried the seat 57-36, and Democrat Salud Carbajal prevailed 53-47.
A few Democrats who faced tough races in 2012 or 2014 may be in luck in the future. Obama carried Ventura County's 26th 54-44, and Democratic Rep. Julia Brownley narrowly won in 2012 and 2014. However, Clinton took the 26th by a wide 58-36, and Brownley had little trouble against her weak GOP foe this time. Democratic Rep. Scott Peters, who represents the 52nd in San Diego, is another incumbent who had tight back-to-back races in those same years. However, the 52nd went from 52-46 Obama to 58-36 Clinton, and Peters beat Karl Rove protégé Denise Gitsham 57-43.
The 36th around Palm Springs also swung from just 51-48 Obama to 52-43 Clinton. But Democratic Rep. Raul Ruiz decisively held on during the 2014 GOP wave and easily dispatched another underfunded GOP state legislator this time, so he wasn't exactly looking like a viable GOP target for the future.
