Leading Off
● OH-Sen: As expected, Republican Josh Mandel, whose formal title is Ohio state treasurer but whose real job is running against Sherrod Brown every six years, has kicked off another bid for Senate. Mandel is a hyper-ambitious, mendacious piece of shit, but we aren't going to do a deep recap of his previous run since we know we'll have plenty of opportunities to discuss what a jagoff he is in the future. And here's one sign: He immediately earned the endorsement of the Senate Conservatives Fund, a nihilist group founded by former South Carolina Sen. Jim DeMint that supports the most radical candidates it can possibly find and has even earned the ire of fellow Republicans for supporting challenges to sitting senators.
But while Mandel had no serious intra-party opposition back in 2012, this time, he very well might. Rep. Pat Tiberi, who was reportedly weighing a bid of his own, has now confirmed on the record that he's "pretty serious" in considering the race. And he's not the only congressman hovering over the contest. Rep. Jim Renacci now says he's "looking at options" for a "potential statewide run," and when asked specifically if he was eyeing the open governor's race, he refused to specify. (Tiberi represents a seat in the Columbus suburbs, Renacci one in the Cleveland suburbs.)
That said, a three-way primary battle between three sitting office-holders seems unlikely, though it's certainly happened before. (Georgia's 2014 GOP Senate primary featured just that.) Brown would certainly love to see Republicans whale on Mandel, and so would we.
Senate
● AL-Sen: Last month, GOP state Attorney General Luther Strange said he planned to run in the special election to succeed Republican Sen. Jeff Sessions, who is Donald Trump's nominee for U.S. attorney general. On Tuesday, Strange announced that he is raising money for a Senate bid and is "officially announcing my intention to seek the Senate seat left open" by Sessions' pending nomination. Strange had also been mentioned as a possible 2018 governor candidate, but we can take him off that list now.
Assuming Sessions is confirmed by his colleagues, Republican Gov. Robert Bentley will appoint his successor, and he can schedule the special election to fill the final years of Sessions' term for either 2017 or 2018. Strange recently said that, while he's not seeking an appointment from Bentley, he would accept one if offered. That's pretty sick considering that Strange is currently investigating Bentley in connection with allegations that Bentley used state resources to conceal an affair with a staffer—and that Bentley would be able to pick a new state attorney general if Strange resigns. Plenty of other Alabama politicians covet the Senate seat, and if Bentley chooses someone else, we'll see if Strange actually proceeds to challenge the new appointed incumbent.
Gubernatorial:
● FL-Gov: Outgoing Democratic Rep. Patrick Murphy, who lost to Sen. Marco Rubio by a 52-44 margin last month, may not be done with politics just yet. In a new interview, Murphy, who is just 33, says he's going to "focus on the private sector" but adds that he still has "a desire to serve," and when asked specifically about Florida's open gubernatorial race in 2018, he said he's "certainly not going to rule anything out."
While there are no obvious candidates who could clear the field, a bunch of welterweight contenders are considering the race, including several big-city mayors and another departing member of Congress, Rep. Gwen Graham, so Murphy would potentially face a tough primary if he ran. (Earlier this year, he dispatched Rep. Alan Grayson with aplomb in the Senate race.) Murphy would also still face questions—trumped-up as they were—about his résumé, though in the final analysis, it appears that he was done in not by his own biography but by the fact that Donald Trump unexpectedly carried Florida, and by the fact that Rubio unexpectedly decided to seek re-election.
Murphy says he hasn't set a specific timetable, though he did offer a hint, saying, "I don't know how I'll feel in six months." No one else on either side has declared yet, so Murphy still has time, but this is going to be a hardcore race, and decisions will have to be made soon.
● IA-Gov: On Wednesday, a spokesperson for Donald Trump confirmed that Iowa GOP Gov. Terry Branstad had accepted Trump's nomination to serve as ambassador to China. Branstad is the longest-serving governor in American history: He was Iowa's chief executive from 1983 to 1999, then returned to the governor's office in 2011. Branstad toyed with running for a seventh term in 2018, but if he's confirmed by the Senate, Lt. Gov. Kim Reynolds will assume the governorship heading into the new cycle. Reynolds would also become Iowa's first woman governor.
A number of Republicans, including Reynolds, Secretary of Agriculture Bill Northey, and Cedar Rapids Mayor Ron Corbett, were considering running for what would have been an open seat if Branstad had simply retired. But if Reynolds becomes governor and runs for a full term in 2018, other prospective GOP candidates will need to think long and hard if they want to challenge an incumbent in a primary. In fact, after the Branstad news broke, Northey immediately announced that he will not run against Reynolds, and he encouraged other Iowa Republicans to support her in 2018. Corbett also acknowledged that Reynolds now has an advantage, though he didn't explicitly rule out running against her.
However, one familiar Iowa Republican is making noises about running even if he does have to get past Reynolds. Rep. Steve King, who was one of the more openly racist Republicans in national politics before Trump parachuted in, told The Hill on Wednesday, "The thought is in my mind. Immediately, it locks in there. But I don't want to send any message that I'm making plans actively." King spent months flirting with a possible Senate bid in 2013 only to stay put, but apparently, he's got another Hamlet act or two in him.
Iowa had long been one of America's premier swing states, but Trump carried it by a punishing 51-42 margin last month. Democrats will want to target the untested Reynolds, but not many prominent politicians have expressed interest in running yet. However, last month, ex-Gov. Tom Vilsack, who is leaving his post as Barack Obama's Agriculture Secretary in January, said that he had "no plans to run again", which is not a no. Vilsack recently reiterated that, while he doesn't think he'll run for office ever again, he's still not closing the door on the idea completely.
● IL-Gov: A number of Democrats have talked about challenging GOP Gov. Bruce Rauner in 2018, and one may be close to getting in. Businessman Chris Kennedy, a son of Robert F. Kennedy, has been meeting with powerful Democrats and labor leaders for months, and Politico reports that he's interviewing potential campaign staffers, adding that he says he's willing to do some self-funding. An unnamed Kennedy aide also says that he's aiming to announce after New Year's Day.
However, Politico also reports that, while influential Illinois Democrats would "welcome his candidacy," they're not actually sure he'll get in. Indeed, Kennedy's 2009 flirtations with a statewide bid are a good reason not to count on a Kennedy campaign until he officially says "I'm running." In May of that year, the Chicago Sun-Times reported that Kennedy would announce he would seek the Senate seat within a week … but nothing happened. Then in July, the Sun-Times reported that Kennedy was torn between running for the Senate and running for governor, but one month later, he announced he wouldn't seek either post.
● NJ-Gov: Congratulations, Joe Piscopo: If you're just flirting with a 2017 gubernatorial bid to get people to pay attention to you for the first time in decades, you've succeeded with us. The 1980s Saturday Night Live cast member and former C-list celebrity has publicly confirmed for the first time that he's thinking about seeking the GOP nod next year. Piscopo says he'll probably decide in January.
● NM-Gov: On Wednesday, Democratic Sen. Tom Udall announced that he would not run for governor in 2018. Udall might have been able to clear the primary field if he got in, and perhaps even scared off some viable Republicans, but that won't be happening now.
A few other politicians from both parties have expressed interest in running to succeed termed-out GOP Gov. Susana Martinez. On the Democratic side, Rep. Michelle Lujan Grisham sounded interested in going for it even if she had to face Udall. Lujan Grisham recently said she knew she'd have to decide by the end of 2017, though her potential primary rivals may not wait that long. Attorney General Hector Balderas hasn't said much publicly, though one of his former political strategists said he was interested in higher office.
For Republicans, Rep. Steve Pearce and Lt. Gov. John Sanchez have both talked about getting in. Albuquerque Mayor Richard Berry has also been name-dropped several times, though he doesn't appear to have said anything one way or another about his 2018 plans. Berry, who pledged to only serve two terms in his current post, is actually keeping his word and isn't running for a third term in 2017, so he will at least have the time to run statewide if he wants to.
House
● CA-34: Ex-Assembly Speaker John Perez has won endorsements from several California House Democrats, as well as the backing of gubernatorial candidates Gavin Newsom and Antonio Villaraigosa (who is also Perez's cousin) ahead of the special election to succeed state Attorney General-designate Xavier Becerra. On Wednesday, Perez also unveiled an endorsement from Sen.-elect Kamala Harris.
Perez's extensive establishment support hasn't exactly cleared the field in this safely blue downtown Los Angeles seat, though. Assemblyman Jimmy Gomez and labor activist Wendy Carillo are both in, and former Los Angeles City Council aide Sara Hernandez is reportedly raising money. A few other Democrats are also reportedly considering, and we can add a new name to the list. Via a spokesperson, Los Angeles City Councilman David Ryu has confirmed that he's interested. However, fellow Councilmember Gil Cedillo has taken his own name out of the running.
In California special elections, all the candidates run on one ballot, and if no one takes a majority, the top two vote-getters advance to a runoff. This seat gave Obama 83 percent of the vote, so if there is a runoff, it will likely be between two Democrats.
● GA-06: While Mitt Romney carried this affluent suburban Atlanta seat 61-38, Donald Trump took it just 48-47 last month, so with GOP Rep. Tom Price unfortunately likely to be confirmed as head of the Department of Health and Human Services, Democrats have an incentive to at least try and field a strong candidate in the upcoming special election. Now, at least, they have someone—or rather, two someones. Former state Sen. Ron Slotin kicked off a bid this week, though he's been out of the game for a very long time. Slotin left the legislature in 1996 to run for the House, but he took just north of 6 percent of the vote in his primary campaign against then-incumbent Cynthia McKinney.
But the Atlanta Journal-Constitution reports that local Democratic leaders are not at all excited about their other new candidate. These Democrats say they have no idea who attorney Joshua McLaurin is, and they're worried he'll hurt them at the ballot box. In Georgia special elections, all the candidates run on one ballot, and if no one takes a majority, the top two vote-getters advance to a runoff. While a Some Dude candidate would barely make an impact in a Democratic primary, he could conceivably take enough support to cost Team Blue a place in the runoff.
The AJC also reports that two other local Democrats are "kicking the tires on a run." They name ex-state Rep. Sally Harrell, who last ran for office in 2002, and outgoing state Rep. Taylor Bennett, who narrowly lost re-election last month after pulling off a miraculous 2015 special election win. However, neither Democrat has publicly expressed interest yet. A number of Republicans are also eyeing this seat, but we can remove state House Speaker Pro Tem Jan Jones from the list.
● KS-04: Plenty of Republicans are considering running in the likely special election to succeed Rep. Mike Pompeo, Donald Trump's nominee to head the CIA, and one very familiar name is now expressing interest. Todd Tiahrt, who represented the Wichita area from 1995 until he left to unsuccessfully run for the Senate in 2010, says he's "exploring the options."
The GOP nomination for this heavily Republican seat will be decided at a district convention rather than through a primary. However, it's an open question whether the 126 party activists who will be picking their nominee have any interest in The Todd anymore. In 2014, Tiahrt unexpectedly decided to challenge Pompeo in the primary, only to get pasted 63-37. It'll be a while before the field shapes up, but outgoing state Rep. Mark Kahrs has taken his name out of the running.
● MN-05: Lots of Democrats have expressed the belief that in order to best rebuild the party, the next chair of the DNC has to make the post a full-time job—something it hasn't been since the days of Howard Dean. Now, Rep. Keith Ellison, one of the leading contenders for the position, has confirmed that if he wins the election for the chairmanship in February, he will indeed resign from Congress.
That would set off a special election in Ellison's Minneapolis-based congressional district, which went for Hillary Clinton by an overwhelming 74-19 margin last month. A number of local Democrats have already expressed interest in succeeding Ellison, but we're not going to get ahead of ourselves: If and when he becomes party chair, then the Great Mentioner can get his game on—but then and no sooner.
Mayoral
● Charlotte, NC Mayor: Democrat Jennifer Roberts has not had an easy first year in office as mayor of Charlotte. Early in 2016, Roberts and the city council passed a non-discrimination ordinance, and the GOP-led state legislature responded by voting for HB2, North Carolina's infamous anti-LGBT law. There was also unrest in the city after Keith Scott, a 43-year-old black man, was killed by police. Roberts is now seeking another two-year term in 2017, but she may not get a clear path through the Democratic primary.
At least a couple of candidates are looking at the race. State Sen. Joel Ford formed an exploratory committee on Tuesday. His statement calling for a "bold, decisive and visionary mayor; one who can unify the city, the council, the business community and all of our neighborhoods and communities" indicates that, if he runs, he'll try to portray Roberts as divisive and ineffective. Ex-City Councilor David Howard, who took third place in the 2015 primary, also has been mentioned as a possible contender.
Charlotte is a very Democratic city, but Republicans are still competitive in local races. In 2013, Republican ex-City Councilor Edwin Peacock lost to Democrat Patrick Cannon 53-47 (Cannon soon resigned in disgrace and went to jail for accepting bribes from undercover FBI agents), and Peacock lost to Roberts just 52-48 last year. It's unclear if Peacock has another run in him, but City Councilor Kenny Smith isn't ruling out a bid.
Grab Bag
● DKE Live and on Ice!: Ok, not really. But Daily Kos Election's Jeff Singer will be interviewed at Laughing Liberally Boston's political comedy show on Saturday at 8 PM ET at The Riot Theater in Jamaica Plain. Tickets can be purchased for $8 here, and proceeds from the show will be donated to the Cambridge fire relief efforts. (Past shows have sold out.) If you're a DKE reader in the Boston area, hope to see you there!
The Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir, Jeff Singer, and Stephen Wolf, with additional contributions from David Jarman, Steve Singiser, Daniel Donner, and James Lambert.