Nebraska specific discussion of vote share and mathematics behind impact on delegate allocation of its 25 Delegates. This is part of mathematics of delegate allocation notes in the series of Delegate Mathematics stories.
The statewide Nebraska Democratic Party is affiliated with national Democratic Party and participates in presidential primaries/caucus within its umbrella.
Basic Data: Nebraska has 25 delegates available. There are 3 Congressional Districts. So including state-wide at-large and PLEO allocations, there are 5 different delegate allocation units. There are not any unusual number of delegates in any CDs. Number of delegates available in each CDs are as follows: 5 from CD3; 6 from CD1 CD2. State-wide allocations are 3 PLEOs and 5 at-large delegates. There are three allocation units which have odd number of delegates. This will be good for providing a clear advantage to one candidate.
Caucus general information: Nebraska operates an open caucus. Participation is open to all who consider themselves not active in other parties. Same day voter and affiliation registration is available. Uncommitted and write-ins are also allowed/treated as candidates.
Caucus Date: 5th March 2016. usual held at precinct level, elects delegates to county which in turn to state convention. The results of presidential preferences expressed at the caucus is binding to each subsequent level.
Binding Ballot aka No Tampering With Delegate: Delegates at any stage are not permitted to change their presidential preference at any level unless their preferred candidate withdraws from race or becomes unviable at next level delegate election to stage. Uncommitted are free to change their mind just once.
This being caucus the final numbers of delegates from districts and state-wide awarded while can be estimated are they are estimates only. Usually they might vary by 1 delegate.
Simultaneous State Party Elections/Formations: The caucus will also do many other things. The caucus process also results in/conclude with formation of new state party central committee and new state party officers (new term anyway even if not new people)
Very Important Primary (aka Advisory Primary): 10th May 2016: There is a separate statewide primary election on 10th May 2016. This is casting votes/ballots event. This primary is important for the state party as this primary is the nomination process for party candidates for various offices within the state includeing state legislature. The general election is a double barrel state and federal. This primary election ballot will also have Democratic Presidential primary voting. This vote on primary however has no effect on presidential delegates. Hence aka advisory primary. You need to cacus for your president but primary vote for your all other candidates. Anyone from Nebraska here, could you perhaps write a story about this peculiarity.
Congressional District Vote Share Based Delegate Allocation Triggers: I have grouped the Congressional Districts which have same available delegates together since the same thresholds and triggers apply to them.
|
Delegates Acquired
Out Of Available
|
5 del
cd3
|
6 del
cd1 cd2
|
Delegate Allocation Threshold/Triggers
| 1 del |
15 |
15 |
| 2 del |
30 |
25 |
| 3 del |
50 |
41.7 |
| 4 del |
70 |
58.3 |
| 5 del |
85 |
75 |
For 5 Delegates at CD3: First delegate acquird at 15%, second delegate at 30.%. Third delegate trigger is beautifully balanced at 50%. Fourth delegate costs a whopping 70%. This 70% votes are needed to get a 4-1 split seems out of reach reach even in a well organized caucus campaign. Goal for both Campaign is to cross the 50% and obtain a 3-2 split in their favour in this CD.
For 6 Delegates at CD1 CD2: Within the whole range of 41.7 — 58.3 the delegate split will be straight 3-3. The vote advantage of 16% is not going to make any difference. Interesting points are at 41.7%. and 58.3%, if candidates are hovering around either of these mark, then some extra effort would break the district 4-2 split. For an advantage a candidate has all the incentive to break it 4-2split. with 58.3% votes. This is within reach be achieved with concerted effort.
Delegate Allocations Based On State-Wide Results: Statewide results work towards two different category of delegates; 5 At-Large delegates and 3 pledged PLEO delegates. While it is the same vote share, due to both allocations being odd numbers they tend to reward statewide winner with overall at least two delegate advanatges as 50% trigger rewards advantage in both category.
| Delegates |
1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
State-wide Delegate Allocation Triggers
| Vote % 3 PLEO |
16.7 |
50 |
83.3 |
—
|
— |
| Vote % 5 State-wide |
15 |
30 |
50 |
70 |
85 |
For 5 State-Wide (At-Large) Delegates: Again due tio such low number of delegates, it identical to CD numbers we have seen before. First delegate acquird at 15%, (and each subsequent with additional 20%). second delegate at 30.%. Third delegate trigger is beautifully balanced at 50%. Fourth delegate costs a whopping 70%. This 70% votes are needed to get a 4-1. Goal for both Campaign is to cross the 50% and obtain a 3-2 split in their favour.
For 3 Pledged PLEOs: The first delegate is very cheap to acquire with just 16.7% votes. second delegate available to whoever manages to get more than 50% votes. That final delegate requires a whopping 83.3% votes. The winner of state gets an extra helping hand. These will break 2-1 giving one candidate advantage
Taking into account all the allocations, overall in state there is adefinitive at least 3 delegate advanatge to be gained here making it break at least 14-11. A little bit of push in CD1 and CD2 to grab 4-2 in those would result in overall state 16-9.
Next bit is my personal opinion only: In the caucuses I expect Bernie Sanders to do very well, specially in CD2 (4-2 or better) and reasonably okay in CD1 (4-2 split maymaybe with a push). Both only needs 58.3% for trigger 4-2 which I think Sanders can manage here. I expect Clinton to do well in CD3 however without much impact as it is a 5 delegate CD and would need 70% for 4-1 thus only 2-3 Clinton advanatge split. On the statewide though Sanders advantage (2-1) split and (3-2) split.
All total 15-10 Sanders advanatge.
Todays Special Shoutouts to Kossacks Demfromhartsdaleny and Wee Mama for spreading and publicising the series.
Previously covered states are all listed with the individual state links in this single document. I will be updating it as and when new states get done: All-Links-Collection-Delegate-Mathematics-Series-2016-Democratic-Primary
Enjoy and hopefully you will have spotted where you might tip the balance personally and like to campaign or make that extra push for your preferred candidate.
Currently I am running through the list of states. If anyone would like to see the mathematics for a particular state faster let me know and I will queue it up.
Todays Specials For A Break From All The Election Stuff is our own Guavaboys story about Nepal and -Nepal-Earthquake-Summit-in-Hanover-NH-Feb-18th-20th-why-not-attend
