Kansas specific discussion of vote share and mathematics behind impact on delegate allocation of its 33 Delegates. This is part of mathematics of delegate allocation notes in the series of Delegate Mathematics stories.
The statewide Kansas Democratic Party is affiliated with national Democratic Party and participates in presidential primaries/caucus within its umbrella.
Basic Data: Kansas has 33 delegates available. There are 4 Congressional Districts. So including state-wide at-large and PLEO allocations, there are 6 different delegate allocation units. There are not any unusual number of delegates in any CDs. Number of delegates available in each CDs are as follows: 4 from CD1; 5 from CD4, 6 from CD3 and 7 from CD2. State-wide allocations are 4 PLEOs and 7 at-large delegates. There are three allocation units which have odd number of delegates. This will be good for providing a clear advantage to one candidate.
Caucus general information: Kansas operates a closed caucus. Participation is open to all registered Democrats. Same day voter and affiliation registration is available. If switching party affiliations or registering anew on same day, be early and be patient (better still register early) , Remember voter IDs (As Chris Reeves was pointing out in comments). Uncommitted and write-ins are also allowed/treated as candidates.
Caucus Date: 5th March 2016. These are held at state senate district levels. So there are just 47 caucuses (caucii??) in total. These will elect delegates to congressional district and state coneventions. The results of presidential preferences expressed at the caucus is binding to each subsequent level.
Binding Ballot aka No Tampering With Delegate: Delegates at any stage are not permitted to change their presidential preference at any level unless their preferred candidate withdraws from race or becomes unviable at next level delegate election to stage. Uncommitted are free to change their mind just once.
This being caucus the final numbers of delegates from districts and state-wide awarded while can be estimated are they are estimates only. Usually they might vary by 1 delegate.
Congressional District Based Delegate Allocation Triggers: The triggers for congressional districts based allocations are listed below.
Delegates Acquired
Out of Available
|
4 del
CD1
|
5 del
cd4
|
6 del
cd3
|
7 del
cd2
|
Delegate Allocation Triggers
1 del |
15 |
15 |
15 |
15 |
2 del |
37.5 |
30 |
25 |
21.4 |
3 del |
62.5 |
50 |
41.7 |
35.7 |
4 del |
85 |
70 |
58.3 |
50 |
5 del |
|
85 |
75 |
64.3 |
6 del |
|
|
85 |
78.6 |
For 4 Delegates at CD1: The first delegate here is available at 15%. Second delegate at 37.5%. Third delegate trigger is high at 62.5%. The whole range from 37.5 to 62.5 will still have delegates split 2-2. So again the sheer level of change in support levels required to flip CD1 is indicates not much activity here. Without a spectacular success this is just going to play at 2-2
For 5 Delegates at CD4: First delegate acquird at 15%, second delegate at 30.%. Third delegate trigger is beautifully balanced at 50%. Fourth delegate costs a whopping 70%. This 70% votes are needed to get a 4-1 split seems out of reach reach even in a well organized caucus campaign. Goal for both Campaign is to cross the 50% and obtain a 3-2 split in their favour in this CD.
For 6 Delegates at CD3: Within the whole range of 41.7 — 58.3 the delegate split will be straight 3-3. The vote advantage of 16% is not going to make any difference. Interesting points are at 41.7%. and 58.3%, if candidates are hovering around either of these mark, then some extra effort would break the district 4-2 split. For an advantage a candidate has all the incentive to break it 4-2split. with 58.3% votes.
For 7 Delegates at CD2: Within the range of 35.7 — 50 the 3 delegates each will be allocated. The fight for the 7th delegate is again precariously balanced at 50% marker to make the overall break 4-3 split. To achieve a 5-2 split votes need to be at 64.3% or higher. Due to disproportionately large number of registered as well as active Democrats in CD2, the results here are likely to skew the entire state results. {The large number of Democrats compared to democrats in other districts, not compared to Republicans}.
Delegate Allocations Based On State-Wide Results: Statewide results work towards two different category of delegates; 7 At-Large delegates and 4 pledged PLEO delegates. While it is the same vote share, the odd number allocations would reward state-wide winner with overall at least one delegate advanatges.
Delegates |
1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
State-wide Delegate Allocation Triggers
Vote % 4 PLEO |
15 |
37.5 |
62.5 |
85 |
|
|
Vote % 7 State-wide |
15 |
21.4 |
35.7 |
50 |
64.3 |
78.6 |
For 4 PLEO: The first delegate here is available at 15%. Second delegate at 37.5%. Third delegate trigger is high at 62.5%. The whole range from 37.5 to 62.5 will still have delegates split 2-2. Without a spectacular success this is just going to play at 2-2
For 7 State-wide (At-Large) Delegates: Within the range of 35.7 — 50 the 3 delegates each will be allocated. The fight for the 7th delegate is again precariously balanced at 50% marker to make the overall break 4-3 split. To achieve a 5-2 split votes need to be at 64.3% or higher.
Next bit is my personal opinion only: In the caucuses while I expect Bernie Sanders to have that edge and do very well but there are not that many opportunities to create a delegate advantage. All the districts with even delegates will be split equally. The sometimes touted as VP possibility Kathleen Sebelius and the engine behind her will still not be enough to tip the balances sufficiently towards Sanders. The fight for that advantage will be very tight, as Clintons have been operating to concede as little as possible.
Overall state split (15-18) in Sanders favour.
Todays shoutouts to Disastermarch17 who has written an awesome The-New-York-State-Senate-An-Analysis-of-All-63-Senate-Seats . All local elections and state elections matter a lot more.
Previously covered states are all listed with the individual state links in this single document. I will be updating it as and when new states get done: All-Links-Collection-Delegate-Mathematics-Series-2016-Democratic-Primary
Enjoy and hopefully you will have spotted where you might tip the balance personally and like to campaign or make that extra push for your preferred candidate.