Maine specific discussion of vote share and mathematics behind impact on delegate allocation of its 25 Delegates. This is part of mathematics of delegate allocation notes in the series of Delegate Mathematics stories.
The statewide Maine Democratic Party is affiliated with national Democratic Party and participates in presidential primaries/caucus within its umbrella.
Basic Data: Maine has 25 delegates available. There are 2 Congressional Districts. So including state-wide at-large and PLEO allocations, there are 4 different delegate allocation units. Number of delegates available in each CDs are as follows: 10 from CD1; 7 from CD2. State-wide allocations are 3 PLEOs and 5 at-large delegates. Unusually high number of delegates in CD1 would have a delegate advantage possibilities. There are three allocation units which have odd number of delegates. This will be good for providing a clear advantage to one candidate.
Caucus general information: Maine operates a closed caucus. Participation is open to all enrolled democrats. Same day voter and affiliation registration is available. Uncommitted by default is treated as a candidate. http://www.mainedems.org/find-your-caucus
Caucus Date: 6th March 2016. These are held at municipal levels. These will elect delegates to congressional district and state conventions. The results of presidential preferences expressed at the caucus is binding to each subsequent level.
Absentee Participation: Maine has mechanisms in place for considering absentee preferences. Absentee ballots are available on request. Maine Democrats are trying to be more inclusive. This is definitely a good thing. Do not get carried away too much with electioneering party boss career yet. Bulk request and submission is specifically prohibited. A person may request an absentee ballot for themselves. Only members of the same household are allowed to submit an absentee ballot on behalf of the absentee. The absentee as well as the person submitting on their behalf must have some sort of household relationships.
Binding Ballot aka No Tampering With Delegate: Delegates at any stage are not permitted to change their presidential preference at any level unless their preferred candidate withdraws from race or becomes unviable at next level delegate election to stage. Uncommitted are free to change their mind just once.
Congressional District Based Delegate Allocation Triggers: The triggers for congressional districts based allocations are listed below.
|
Delegates Acquired
Out of Available
|
10 Del
CD1
|
7 Del
cd2
|
Delegate Allocation Triggers
| 1 del |
15 |
15 |
| 2 del |
15 |
21.4 |
| 3 del |
25 |
35.7 |
| 4 del |
35 |
50 |
| 5 del |
45 |
64.3 |
| 6 del |
55 |
78.6 |
| 7 del |
65 |
85 |
| 8 del |
75 |
|
| 9 del |
85 |
|
| 10 Del |
85 |
|
For 10 Delegates at CD1: First two delegates achieved cheaply at 15%. Subsequently every extra 10% gives an additional delegates. Any vote share between 45% and just under 55% will result in a 5-5 delegate split. Crossing a threshold trigger 55% results in two delegate advantage 6-4. The next trigger at 65% for 7-3 split. These both numbers seem within the realms of possibilities.
For 7 Delegates at CD2: Within the range of 35.7 — 50 the 3 delegates each will be allocated. The fight for the 7th delegate is again precariously balanced at 50% marker to make the overall break 4-3 split. To achieve a 5-2 split votes need to be at 64.3% or higher.
Delegate Allocations Based On State-Wide Results: Statewide results work towards two different category of delegates; 5 At-Large delegates and 3 pledged PLEO delegates. While it is the same vote share, the two odd number allocations would reward state-wide winner with overall at least two delegate advanatges.
| delegates |
1 del |
2 del |
3 del |
4 del |
5 del |
Statewide Delegation Allocation Triggers
| vote% 3 PLEO |
16.7 |
50 |
83.3 |
|
|
| Vote% 5 State-wide |
15 |
30 |
50 |
70 |
85 |
For 3 PLEO: The first delegate is very cheap to acquire with just 16.7% votes. second delegate available to whoever manages to get more than 50% votes. That final delegate requires a whopping 83.3% votes. This will break 2-1 giving the statewide count winning candidate one delegate advantage.
For 5 State-wide (At-Large) Delegates: First delegate acquired at 15%, second delegate at 30.%. Third delegate trigger is precariously balanced at 50%. Fourth delegate costs a whopping 70%. available. Both campaigns probably have that 30% support needed for 2 delegates. Goal for both Campaign is to cross the 50% and obtain a 3-2 split in their favour. One again the statewide winner gets an extra delegate advantage in this category too.
Next bit is my personal opinion only: I expect Bernie Sanders to have an advantage and cross the favourable breaks in all 4 categories of delegate allocation. This includes 6-4 split at CD1 However pushing for further extra delegates would requires 64.3% in CD2 or 65% in CD1. While Bernie Sanders maybe close to pushing both triggers 60+%, I do not think that he can manage to drag Hillary Clinton below 35% in CD1 and 35.7% in CD2. My estimate of total state delegate split will be 15-10 in Sanders favour.
After trying to figure out what on earth is a household relationship, From information available through Maine Democratic party and a couple of friends/stoners who pretend to be law students, I gather room mates/house sharers do not qualify as household members. Household members is limited to specific relationships (parents/children/spouses/grandparents/grandchildren/joint tax submissions). Step-children/parents only allowed if they live together. Unless you and the absentee fall into one of those groups do not expect to cast absentee. For some weird reason live-in partners (unless jointly tax submitting, or jointly responsible for local tax levy) do not qualify. I am not quite sure what that joint-tax thing and joint levy responsibility is about. Maybe they prefer people to be married. Perhaps someone from Maine would be so kind as to shed some light.
Today's shout outs to Chris Reeves and P Carey for bringing these stories to more people by republishing.
As usual guavaboy for a welcome distraction and break from primary- stories- When-the-Hospital-Fires-the-Bullet-as-seen-by-a-hospital-manager-Feb-17th and the Nepal-Earthquake-Summit-in-Hanover-NH-Feb-18th-20th-why-not-attend
Previously covered states are all listed with the individual state links in this single document. I will be updating it as and when new states get done: All-Links-Collection-Delegate-Mathematics-Series-2016-Democratic-Primary
Enjoy and hopefully you will have spotted where you might tip the balance personally and like to campaign or make that extra push for your preferred candidate.
