Mississippi specific discussion of vote share and mathematics behind impact on delegate allocation of its 36 Delegates. This is part of mathematics of delegate allocation notes in the series of Delegate Mathematics stories.
The state-wide Mississippi State Democratic Party is affiliated with national Democratic Party and participates in presidential nominee selection process within its umbrella.
Basic Data: Mississippi has 36 delegates available. There are 4 Congressional Districts(CD). So including state-wide at-large and PLEO allocations, there are 6 different delegate allocation units. There are not any unusual number of delegates in any CDs. Number of delegates available in each CDs are as follows: 4 from CD4; 5 from CD1 CD3; 9 from CD2. CD2 has high number of delegates. State-wide allocations are 5 PLEOs and 8 at-large delegates.
Primary General Information: Primary ballot/vote is scheduled for 8th March 2016. Mississippi operates an open primary. Participation is open to all. There is no partisan registration (affiliation registration) in the state. Same day voter registration is not available. Voters must have been registered by 5th Feb. If you have missed primary voting deadline then there is still time to register for general election. Write-in is also available.
Congressional District Based Delegate Allocation Triggers: The triggers for congressional districts based allocations are listed below.
|
Delegates Acquired
Out Of Available
|
4 del
cd4
|
5 del
cd1 cd3
|
9 del
cd2
|
Delegate Allocation Triggers
| 1 del |
15 |
15 |
15 |
| 2 del |
37.5 |
30 |
16.7 |
| 3 del |
62.5 |
50 |
27.8 |
| 4 del |
85 |
70 |
38.9 |
| 5 del |
|
85 |
50 |
| 6 del |
|
|
61.2 |
| 7 del |
|
|
72.3 |
For 4 Delegates at CD4 : The first delegate here is available at 15%. Second delegate at 37.5%. Third delegate trigger is high at 62.5%. The whole range from 37.5% to 62.5% will still have delegates split 2-2. To gain a definitive advantage a candidate needs to cross 62.5% trigger resulting in a delegate split of 3-1.
For 5 Delegates at CD1 CD3: First delegate acquired at 15%, second delegate at 30.%. Third delegate trigger is precariously balanced at 50%. Fourth delegate costs a whopping 70%. This 70% votes are needed to get a 4-1 split seems a bit too much of a demand on any campaign. These districts becomes very crucial as they break just with small % hovering at 50%, a whole delegate is available. Both campaigns probably have that 30% support needed for 2 delegates. Goal for both Campaign is to cross the 50% and obtain a 3-2 split in their favour.
For 9 Delegates at CD2: First delegate acquired at 15%, second at 16.7%, third at 27.8% and fourth at 38.9%. Since CD2 has a high number of delegates, there are many more trigger points for acquiring extra delegates. The tipping point is again at 50% for the advantageous break with 5-4 split. Additional delegates acquired at 61.2% and 72.3%. For a campaign a smaller movement in CD2 could still trigger an extra delegate. CD2 voter participation will also skew state-wide results due to the higher population here. Any extra effort here will contribute disproportionately acquiring delegates at CD as well as state-wide results.
Delegate Allocations Based On State-Wide Results: Statewide results work towards two different category of delegates; 8 At-Large delegates and 5 pledged PLEO delegates. While it is the same vote share, the odd number of PLEO allocations would reward state-wide winner with overall at least one delegate advantages.
| Delegates |
1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
State-wide Delegate Allocation Triggers
| %Vote 5 PLEO |
15 |
30 |
50 |
70 |
85 |
|
| %Vote 8 State-wide |
15 |
18.8 |
31.3 |
43.8 |
56.3 |
68.8 |
For 5 Pledged PLEOs: First delegate acquired at 15%, second delegate at 30.%. Third delegate trigger is precariously balanced at 50%. Fourth delegate costs a whopping 70%. Goal for both Campaign is to cross the 50% and obtain a 3-2 split in their favour. One again the state-wide winner gets an extra delegate advantage in this category.
For 8 At-Large Delegates (State-wide): Any vote share between 43.8% and 56.3% will result in a 4-4 delegate split. Crossing a threshold trigger 56.3% results in two delegate advantage 5-3. The next trigger at 68.8% for 6-2 split. Unless there is some major event 68.8% is quite a huge barrier. 7-1 split is just extremely improbable it needs 81.3%.
Previously covered states are all listed with the individual state links in this single document. I will be updating it as and when new states get done: All-Links-Collection-Delegate-Mathematics-Series-2016-Democratic-Primary
Enjoy and hopefully you will have spotted where you might tip the balance personally and like to campaign or make that extra push for your preferred candidate.
Currently I am running through the list of states. If anyone would like to see the mathematics for a particular state faster let me know and I will queue it up.
Today's Specials and shout outs to http://asdc.democrats.org/state-parties/ all the state parties who keep the fight running in all states. Especially Mississippi Democrats still trying to fight back against regressive state government.
And to Thandisizwe Chimurenga for trying to keep Mississippi in our radars
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2016/02/19/1487285/-Mississippi-lawmakers-consider-separate-but-equal-flags-but-one-is-still-Confederate
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2016/02/13/1484608/-Kicking-Negroes-off-the-ballot-in-Mississippi
Next bit is my personal opinion only: In this ludicrously Red state with CD2 specifically in Democratic camp, avowed and declared Clinton Democrats in ascendancy and most of the contest is likely to be breaking heavily in favour of Clinton. Popular US House Representative Bennie Thompson campaigning on behalf of Clinton. Due to small number of overall delegates in state, this however will not translate into an overwhelming delegate advantage. Sanders will struggle to contain Clinton to below 62.5%. I expect Clinton to achieve good results. Delegate allocations breaking (3-1), (3-2), (6-3) and (3-2), (5-3) all in Clinton favour. Total for state (23-13).
