It does not give me any joy to write this. I think that the Democratic party is in trouble. Here are the approximate numbers, I can’t find exact stats from 2008 so I rounded 29% and 49% to 30% and 50%. Most of the numbers are plus or minus 1,000 depending on which sources you look at for the stats.
Democratic turnout in the Iowa Caucuses
2008 — 239,000
2016 — 171,000
Republican turnout in the Iowa Caucuses
2008 — 119,000
2012 — 122,000
2016 — 182,000
So while Bernie Sanders talks about a “political revolution” as the answer to how we can turn things around and elect a Democratic Congress, it’s pretty clear there is a political revolution going on, but for Republicans not Democrats. It’s true that there’s a political revolt going on within the Democratic Party, to change the agenda and the party’s core economic message. However, a political revolution within the party is not the same thing as a national political revolution. Unfortunately, the evidence of a national political revolution all points to the Republican side instead. Iowa has been a reliably strong Democratic swing state the past few elections, but 11,000 more Republicans went out and caucused last night than Democrats. Compare that to 2008 when 120,000 more Democrats turned out than Republicans. This should give both campaigns some pause about where they are headed. It’s also worth noting that 17-29 years old made up 22% of caucus goers in 2008 versus 17% in 2016.
In my view there is only one way to bridge the enthusiasm gap we have with the GOP. The answer is Sanders and Clinton need to find ways to unite their supporters instead of dividing the party in two. In the mean time we need to think about what we can do to match the enthusiasm from 2008 again. Maybe that means a Clinton-Sanders ticket or a Sanders-Clinton ticket, I’m not sure. I can’t picture having a Sanders-Clinton ticket for some reason, but I guess it could work. Anyway let’s be very clear about what we need in this country in order to have a real national Democratic political revolution.
If you really want a political revolution here is what we need.
1-Redistricting reform
2-Automatic registration
3-DC statehood
I’d like to start hearing both candidates talk more about this. I’d also like to hear more about what they have in common, instead of how one is a corrupt liar and the other is unelectable, or we’ll lose.
Tuesday, Feb 2, 2016 · 6:33:08 PM +00:00
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topdog08
Here is the closest analogy I could find to this years results:
http://www.gwu.edu/~action/chrniowa.html
Iowa's precinct caucuses were held Monday, January 24, 2000.
Republican Precinct Caucus Results 2,114 of 2,131 precincts reporting (99%): 87,666 total votes. Bush 35,948 (40.99%), Forbes 26,744 (30.50%), Keyes 12,496 (14.24%), Bauer 7,487 (8.53%), McCain 4,093 (4.67%), Hatch 898 (1.02%). Detailed Results by County >>
Democratic Precinct Caucus Results 2,131 of 2,131 precincts reporting (100%): 60,760 total votes. Gore 63.44%, Bradley 34.92%, Uncommitted 1.60%, Other 0.05%. Detailed Results by County >>
Friday, Feb 5, 2016 · 5:22:58 PM +00:00
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topdog08
More disturbing news from Gallup:
Gallup's analysis of political party affiliation at the state level in 2015 finds that 20 states are solidly Republican or leaning Republican, compared with 14 solidly Democratic or leaning Democratic states. The remaining 16 are competitive. This is the first time in Gallup's eight years of tracking partisanship by state that there have been more Republican than Democratic states. It also marks a dramatic shift from 2008, when Democratic strength nationally was its greatest in recent decades.