Actually, they technically have Sanders up by .1%. But let's just call it 43-43.
| McLaughlin Poll |
2/11 - 2/17 |
1/14 - 1/18 |
| Sanders |
42.6% (+14.9%) |
27.7% |
| Clinton |
42.5% (-15.3%) |
57.8% |
Toplines are here and crosstabs are here.
It seems that this sort of poll result is something that we are starting to see more frequently. This is still on the better end of national polls that we have seen for Sanders, but it has company now. Since New Hampshire, two separate Quinnipiac polls have shown Clinton up only 44-42, Fox has shown Sanders up 47-44.
What these all have in common is that they are live phone polls and they call cell phones. Most, though not all, of the polls that have shown better results for Clinton after New Hampshire have been internet polls or IVR autodial polls, most of which do not call cell phones.
Whatever one may say about any individual poll, if we continue to see more polls like this, eventually it will no longer be possible to call them "outliers.”
Now, you should take into account that this is from McLaughlin, a GOP pollster, but they have been regularly releasing monthly polls, and they have not always been showing good results for Sanders. Quite the opposite. In January they had Clinton up 57.8% to 27.7%, so this poll has a large bounce out of Iowa and New Hampshire to Sanders.
Crosstabs
Cell Phone Usage
Sanders does best among cell-phone only voters, Clinton does best among landline voters. For this reason, Clinton tends to do better in polls that do not call cell phones, or which have cell phones as only a small part of their sample. In this poll, cell phones are a large part of the sample.
|
Cell |
Both Equally |
Landline |
| Sanders |
44.6% |
40.5% |
36.6% |
| Clinton |
43.3% |
38.3% |
44.5% |
| Sample Size |
294 |
88 |
72 |
Party ID
Clinton leads 46-40 among Democrats, Sanders leads 58-19 among Independents.
Ideology
Sanders leads 48-44 among Liberals, while moderates are tied 40-40 and Clinton wins Conservatives 47-28.
Marital Status
Sanders wins single voters 49-41, while Clinton carries married voters 44-39.
Religion
Clinton leads 59-27 with Protestants, 44-42 with Catholics. Sanders leads 63-28 with Atheists/Agnostics. There are very small sample sizes for non-Christian religions.
Race
Sanders leads 49-32 among whites, 54-40 among Hispanics. Asians are tied 48-48 (warning, sample size of 18). Clinton leads 69-17 among African Americans.
Age
Sanders leads 72-25 among voters age 18-29, Clinton leads 56-28 among voters age 65+. Between that the age groups are split about evenly, but Sanders support is less as you move up the age continuum.
Gender
Sanders is winning men 46-38, Clinton is winning women 48-39.
General Election Matchups
Both Democrats win all General Election matchups that they tested. Unfortunately, they didn’t test the same matchups for Clinton and Sanders, so direct comparison is not possible. But either Sanders is a stronger GE candidate that Clinton, or else Bloomberg takes mostly from the Republicans:
Sanders 45 — Trump 35 — Bloomberg 10
Sanders 45 — Cruz 33 — Bloomberg 9
Clinton 46 — Trump 44
Clinton 47 — Cruz 43
Clinton 46 — Rubio 44
Clinton 46 — Bush 43
P.S. — Nevada…
There has been a late breaking surge in search interest for Bernie Sanders in Nevada. Since yesterday, google search interest for Sanders in Nevada has skyrocketed. Take that for what you will:
Google search interest in Nevada over the past week
And what are people in Nevada searching for? Over the past day, some of the top rising searches related to Bernie Sanders is for caucus locations. For Sanders, the rising search queries over the past 24 hours in Nevada are:
For Clinton, the rising search queries in Nevada are:
Also, for those who didn't see it, check out my Nevada caucuses preview and Democratic primary model!
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2016/02/20/1487853/-Nevada-Caucuses-Preview-and-Democratic-Primary-Model-Projections
