Florida specific discussion of vote share and mathematics behind impact on delegate allocation of its 214 Delegates. This is part of mathematics of delegate allocation notes in the series of Delegate Mathematics stories.
The state-wide Florida Democratic Party is affiliated with national Democratic Party and participates in presidential nominee selection process within its umbrella. Florida has a very large number of delegates.
Basic Data: Florida has 214 delegates available. (Definitely a delegate rich state). There are 27 Congressional Districts(CD). So including state-wide at-large and PLEO allocations, there are 29 different delegate allocation units. Number of delegates available in each CDs are as follows: 3 from CD1 CD25 ::: 4 from CD3 CD4 CD17 CD19 CD26 CD27 ::: 5 from CD6 CD7 CD8 CD9 CD10 CD11 CD12 CD15 ::: 6 from CD2 CD13 CD14 CD16 CD17 CD22 CD23 ::: 7 from CD20 CD21 ::: 8 from CD24. State-wide allocations are 28 PLEOs and 46 at-large delegates. With such a large number of statewide delegates this has a potential to give a candidate a bigger boost. Combining that with 12 districts having odd number of delegates, even a small boost would give a candidate definitive delegate advantage.
Primary General Information: Primary ballot/vote is scheduled for 15th March 2016. Florida operates a closed primary. Participation is open to all registered democrats. Just remember to request the Democratic Party ballot. Neither Party membership nor affiliation/registration is needed. Same day voter registration is not available. Voters must have been registered as Democrats by 15th Feb for primary voting. If you have missed primary voting deadline then there is still time to register for general election. Uncommitted is by default an option available as is write-ins.
Congressional District Based Delegate Allocation Triggers: The triggers for congressional districts based allocations are listed below.
|
delegates Acquired
Out of Available
|
3 del
CD1 CD25
|
4 del
CD3 CD4
CD17 CD19
CD26 CD27
|
5 del
CD6 CD7
CD8 CD9
CD10 CD11
CD12 CD15
|
6 del
CD2 CD5
CD13 CD14
CD16 CD17
CD22 CD23
|
7 del
CD20 CD21
|
8 del
cd24
|
Delegate Allocation Triggers
| 1 del |
16.7 |
15 |
15 |
15 |
15 |
15 |
| 2 del |
50 |
37.5 |
30 |
25 |
21.5 |
18.8 |
| 3 del |
83.4 |
62.5 |
50 |
41.7 |
35.8 |
31.3 |
| 4 del |
|
85 |
70 |
58.4 |
50 |
43.8 |
| 5 del |
|
|
85 |
75 |
64.3 |
56.3 |
| 6 del |
|
|
|
85 |
78.6 |
68.8 |
| 7 del |
|
|
|
|
85 |
81.3 |
For 3 Delegates at CD1 CD25: The first delegate is very cheap to acquire with just 16.7% votes. second delegate available to whoever manages to get more than 50% votes. That final delegate requires a whopping 83.3% votes. Unfortunately these districts are heavily tilted towards Republicans. Democratic Party activity is low. Since James Bryan and Joe Garcia stopped being active (exhausted with flying the lonely banner year in year out more like), Democratic Party is suffering at all levels. Unless the poll numbers are literally hovering around 50% marker, this place is unlikely to see much action.
For 4 Delegates at CD3 CD4 CD17 CD19 CD26 CD27: The first delegate here is available at 15%. Second delegate at 37.5%. Third delegate trigger is high at 62.5%. The whole range from 37.5 to 62.5 will still have delegates split 2-2. Without a relative 25% difference in support districts still split (2-2). Without a spectacular success this is just going to play at 2-2. A play for higher percentage share of statewide votes might still bring candidates putting in a lot of effort here. Not for district gains but for statewide gains.
For 5 Delegates at CD6 CD7 CD8 CD9 CD10 CD11 CD12 CD15: First delegate acquired at 15%, second delegate at 30.%. Third delegate trigger is nicely balanced at 50%. Fourth delegate costs a whopping 70%. This 70% votes are needed to get a 4-1 split is a bit too demanding. These eight districts become very crucial as they break just with small % hovering at 50%, a whole delegate is available. Goal for any Campaign is to cross the 50% and obtain a favourable 3-2 split. Successfully breaking all these districts will give an 8 delegate advantage straight away. These 5 delegate awarding districts will be fought over hard locally.
For 6 Delegates at CD2 CD13 CD14 CD16 CD17 CD22 CD23: Within the whole range of 41.7 — 58.3 the delegate split will be straight 3-3. The vote advantage of 16% is not going to make any difference. Interesting points are at 41.7%. and 58.3%, if candidates are hovering around either of these mark, then some extra effort would break the district 4-2 split. For an advantage a candidate has all the incentive to break it 4-2split. with 58.3% votes. Otherwise we are looking at a straight 3-3 split.
For 7 Delegates at CD20 CD21: Within the range of 35.7 — 50 the 3 delegates each will be allocated. The fight for the 7th delegate is again precariously balanced at 50% marker to make the overall break 4-3 split. To achieve a 5-2 split votes need to be at 64.3% or higher.
For 8 Delegates at CD24: Any vote share between 43.8% and 56.3% will result in a 4-4 delegate split. Crossing a threshold trigger 56.3% results in two delegate advantage 5-3. The next trigger at 68.8% for 6-2 split. Unless there is some major event 68.8% is quite a huge barrier. 7-1 split is just extremely improbable it needs 81.3%. A (5-3) split with 56.3% is still within current levels of possibilities.
Delegate Allocations Based On State-Wide Results: Statewide results work towards two different category of delegates; 28 PLEOs and 46 At-Large delegates. The large numbers of delegates available in these categories also mean that a smaller movement in support/vote level would result in delegate advantages.
For 28 Pledged PLEOs: (See table below.) Because of a high number of available delegates, the incremental steps are fairly small. Results should reflect the similar percentages. The some of the extra delegates achieving triggers are listed below. Roughly 3.6% votes translates to 1 delegate. crossing 15% threshold gives a starting point of 4 delegates. Fifth delegate is cheap at 16.1%. Subsequently every 3.6% gives an extra delegate. Between 48.3%-51.8% delegates split even (14-14). A small movement however is sufficient to reward the state-wide winner with additional advantages. . Crossing 51.8% results in (15-13) split. Only some interesting triggers are listed. Corresponding At-Large delegates at that level are also listed for comparison. (Not all triggers are listed). A separate table further down is just for at-large delegates.
| Vote Share % |
15 |
16.1 |
37.5 |
41.1 |
44.7 |
48.3 |
51.8 |
55.4 |
59 |
62.5 |
66.1 |
State-Wide Delegates Triggers PLEOs
| PLEO Del(28) |
4 |
5 |
11 |
12 |
13 |
14 |
15 |
16 |
17 |
18 |
19 |
|
Corresponding
At-Large(46)
|
7 |
7 |
17 |
19 |
21 |
22 |
24 |
25 |
27 |
29 |
30 |
For 46 State-Wide(At-Large) Delegates: (See table below.) Because of a high number of available delegates, the incremental steps are fairly small. Results should reflect the similar percentages. The some of the extra delegates achieving triggers are listed below. Roughly 2.2% votes translates to 1 delegate. crossing 15% threshold gives a starting point of 7 delegates. Eighth delegate is cheap at 16.4%. Subsequently every 2.2% gives an extra delegate. Between 49%-51.1% delegates split even (23-23). A small movement however is sufficient to reward the state-wide winner with additional advantages. . Crossing 51.1% results in (24-22) split. Only some interesting triggers are listed. Corresponding PLEO delegates at that level are also listed for comparison. (Not all triggers are listed).
| Vote Share % |
15 |
16.4 |
46.8 |
49 |
51.1 |
53.3 |
55.5 |
57.7 |
59.8 |
62 |
State-Wide Delegate Allocation Triggers (At-Large Delegates)
|
AT-Large
Del(46)
|
7 |
8 |
22 |
23 |
24 |
25 |
26 |
27 |
28 |
29 |
|
Corresponding
PLEOS (28)
|
4 |
5 |
13 |
14 |
14 |
15 |
16 |
16 |
17 |
17 |
Next bit is my personal opinion: Due to large number of odd number of delegates, the advantages will be accumulated and lost fast. The advantageous breaks will be spread out between both Bernie Sanders and Hillary Clinton depending on the specific congressional District.
In 3 delegate CD1 and CD25 Bernie Sanders advantage (2-1). All 4 delegate districts will break (2-2).
In the 5 delegates CD6 CD7 CD8 and CD9 I expect Bernie Sanders to do well enough to cross 50% and garner 1 delegate advantage each. Others will go to Clinton. In the 6 delegate districts of CD23, I expect Clinton to break it (4-2) (My apologies to Tim Canova) rest breaking (3-3).
In the 7 delegates districts CD20 and CD21 I expect and overwhelming support for Clinton to have the advantage breaks of (5-2). In 8 delegate CD24 again I expect Clinton to break it in favour (5-3). Statewide of around 58% causing a (27-19) at-large and (16-12) PLEOs. All total for state splitting Clinton 114— Sanders 100
Previously covered states are all listed with the individual state links in this single document. I will be updating it as and when new states get done: All-Links-Collection-Delegate-Mathematics-Series-2016-Democratic-Primary
Enjoy and hopefully you will have spotted where you might tip the balance personally and like to campaign or make that extra push for your preferred candidate.
Today’s shout outs to Michigan, My Michigan and Motor City Kossacks publishing groups and randym77 and fcvaguy.
