Missouri specific discussion of vote share and mathematics behind impact on delegate allocation of its 71 Delegates. This is part of mathematics of delegate allocation notes in the series of Delegate Mathematics stories.
The state-wide Missouri Democratic Party is affiliated with national Democratic Party and participates in presidential nominee selection process within its umbrella.
Basic Data: Missouri has 71 delegates available. There are 8 Congressional Districts(CD). So including state-wide at-large and PLEO allocations, there are 10 different delegate allocation units. Number of delegates available in each CDs are as follows: 4 from CD7 ::: 5 from CD3 CD4 CD6 CD8 ::: 6 from CD2 ::: 7 from CD5 ::: 10 from CD1. State-wide allocations are 9 PLEOs and 15 at-large delegates. With 7 out of 10 allocation categories of odd number of delegates there are very definitive delegate advantages to be gained here.
Primary Election Information: Primary ballot/vote is scheduled for 15th March 2016. Missouri operates an open primary. Participation is open to all registered voters. Just remember to request the Democratic Party ballot. Neither Party membership nor party registration is needed. You will be required to declare that you are a Democrat. Same day voter registration is not available. Voters must have been registered by 17th Feb for primary voting. If you have missed primary voting deadline then there is still time to register for general election and for state primaries later. Uncommitted option is available.
There is no early voting, and a valid excuse must be supplied for absentee voting.
Voter ID Laws: Voter ID is required to presented. If you do not have a form of ID, you can still vote if the polling centre voting judges are satisfied that you are a valid voter. So if in doubt turn up anyway to vote. Missouri has a bit wider range of accepted documents than other states.
- Identification issued by any of the State of Missouri Agency or Local election authority. (Includes all state agency id for employees).
- Identification issued by any Agency of or the government of US.
- Student Identification issued by a Missouri State recognized educational institution (University, College, Vocational Schools, Technical Schools) located in Missouri.
- Utility Bill (mobile phone bills do not count ,why i have no idea), bank statements, pay-cheques, government cheques, or any other government document that has name and address of voter. (sorry I have a mental block on spelling Cheques any other way)
- Drivers License, or state ID card from another state. (although if you have a state ID card from another state, what are you doing voting in Missouri?)
More information on Secretary of States website. http://www.sos.mo.gov/elections/goVoteMissouri/howtovote and FAQ here→ http://www.sos.mo.gov/elections/goVoteMissouri/votereg
Congressional District Based Delegate Allocation Triggers: The triggers for congressional districts based allocations are listed below.
Delegates Acquired
Out of Available
|
4 del
CD7
|
5 del
cd3 cd4
cd6 cd8
|
6 del
cd2
|
7 del
cd5
|
10 del
cd1
|
Delegate Allocation Triggers
1 del |
15 |
15 |
15 |
15 |
15 |
2 del |
37.5 |
30 |
25 |
21.5 |
15 |
3 del |
62.5 |
50 |
41.7 |
35.8 |
25 |
4 del |
85 |
70 |
58.4 |
50 |
35 |
5 del |
|
85 |
75 |
64.3 |
45 |
6 del |
|
|
85 |
78.6 |
55 |
7 del |
|
|
|
85 |
65 |
For 4 Delegates at CD7: The first delegate here is available at 15%. Second delegate at 37.5%. Third delegate trigger is high at 62.5%. The whole range from 37.5 to 62.5 will still have delegates split 2-2. So these are decidedly the most boring for district based delegates. But as always the vote share will count towards the state-wide results. Without a spectacular success by a candidate this is just going to play at 2-2
For 5 Delegates at CD3 CD4 CD6 CD8: First delegate acquired at 15%, second delegate at 30.%. Third delegate trigger is nicely balanced at 50%. Fourth delegate costs a whopping 70%. This 70% votes are needed to get a 4-1 split is a bit too demanding. These four districts become very crucial as they break just with small % hovering at 50%, a whole delegate is available. Goal for any Campaign is to cross the 50% and obtain a 3-2 split in their favour. Successfully breaking these districts will give a 4 delegate advantage straight away. These 5 delegate awarding districts will be contributing to delegate advantages.
For 6 Delegates at CD2: Within the whole range of 41.7 — 58.3 the delegate split will be straight 3-3. Interesting points are at 41.7%. and 58.3%, if candidates are hovering around either of these mark, then some extra effort would break the district 4-2 split. For an advantage a candidate has all the incentive to break it 4-2split. with 58.3% votes. Otherwise we are looking at a straight 3-3 split.
For 7 Delegates at CD5: Within the range of 35.7 — 50 the 3 delegates each will be allocated. The fight for the 7th delegate is again beautifully balanced at 50% marker to make the overall break 4-3 split. To achieve a 5-2 split votes need to be at 64.3% or higher.
For 10 Delegates at CD1: First two delegates achieved cheaply at 15%. Subsequently every extra 10% gives an additional delegates. Any vote share between 45% and just under 55% will result in a 5-5 delegate split. Crossing a threshold trigger 55% results in two delegate advantage 6-4. This seems to be within reach for campaigns. The next trigger at 65% for 7-3 split. Unless there is some major event 75% is quite a huge barrier for 8-2 split. 85% will give all 10 delegates. CD1 will disproportionately influence statewide result due to the number of Democrats here.
Delegate Allocations Based On State-Wide Results: Statewide results work towards two different category of delegates; 20 PLEOs and 34 At-Large delegates. The large numbers of delegates available in these categories also mean that a smaller movement in support/vote level would result in delegate advantages.
For 9 Pledged PLEOs: (See table below.) Because of small number of delegates in this category a large movement in vote share % is needed to make significant changes. Roughly 11.1% votes translates to 1 delegate. Reaching 15% threshold gives a starting point of 1 delegate. Second delegate is cheap at 16.7%. Subsequently every 11.1% gives an extra delegate. Between 43.3 and 50% gives 4 delegates. The crossing the nicely balanced 50% marker gives a delegate advantage split of (5-4). However the delegate requires 61.2% vote share.
Delegate allocation triggers for PLEOs are listed. Corresponding At-Large delegates at that level are also listed for comparison. A separate table further down is just for at-large delegates.
Vote Share % |
15 |
16.7 |
27.8 |
38.9 |
50 |
61.2 |
72.3 |
83.4 |
85 |
Sate-wide Delegate Allocation Triggers PLEOs
PLEO (Del9) |
1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
9 |
Corresponding
At-Large (15Del)
|
2 |
3 |
4 |
6 |
8 |
9 |
11 |
13 |
15 |
For 15 State-Wide(At-Large) Delegates: (See table below.) Because of a small number of available delegates, the incremental steps are fairly chunky. Results should reflect the similar percentages. The some of the extra delegates achieving triggers are listed below. Roughly 6.7% votes translates to 1 delegate. Crossing 15% threshold gives a starting point of 2 delegates. Third delegate is cheap at 16.7%. Subsequently every 6.7% gives an extra delegate. Crossing the midway trigger of 50% gives a delegate advantage split of (8-7). Some of the the delegate triggers are same as PLEO trigger. (This is a side effect of 3:5 ratio of the delegate numbers). are shared. Only some interesting triggers are listed. Corresponding PLEO delegates at that level are also listed for comparison. (Only triggers in range people seem most interested in are listed).
Vote Share % |
15 |
16.7 |
23.4 |
30 |
36.7 |
43.3 |
50 |
56.7 |
63.4 |
State-Wide Delegate Allocation Triggers At-Large Delegates
At-Large Del(15) |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
9 |
10 |
Corresponding
PLEOS(9)
|
1 |
2 |
2 |
3 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
5 |
6 |
Next bit is my personal opinion: Most of the interest will be around the 5 delegate awarding districts. CD7 with 4 delegates will break even. CD2 (aka Todd Akin land, yep that Todd Akin) will break with (3-3).
In 5 delegate Districts I fully expect Sanders to easily get advantages in all of them CD3, CD4, CD6, CD8 (3-2). However in 7 delegate CD5 I expect Clinton to break it (5-2). In 10 delegate CD1 here too I expect Clinton to break it (7-3). This might seem high however Clinton has been campaigning here for longer and has the campaign organization in place a lot longer.
Statewide Clinton will just crawl past the 50% marker to achieve delegate 1 delegate advantage in PLEO and at-large Category. All combined state splitting (Sanders 33- Clinton 38).
Previously covered states are all listed with the individual state links in this single document. I will be updating it as and when new states get done: All-Links-Collection-Delegate-Mathematics-Series-2016-Democratic-Primary
Enjoy and hopefully you will have spotted where you might tip the balance personally and like to campaign or make that extra push for your preferred candidate.
Today shout outs to Vetwife and DKos Florida and I4 Corridor Kossacks and North Central Florida Kossacks