Ohio specific discussion of vote share and mathematics behind impact on delegate allocation of its 143 Delegates. This is part of mathematics of delegate allocation notes in the series of Delegate Mathematics stories.
The state-wide Ohio Democratic Party is affiliated with national Democratic Party and participates in presidential nominee selection process within its umbrella.
Basic Data: Ohio has 143 delegates available. There are 16 Congressional Districts(CD). So including state-wide at-large and PLEO allocations, there are 18 different delegate allocation units. Number of delegates available in each CDs are as follows: 4 from CD1 CD2 CD4 CD5 CD6 CD7 CD8 CD10 CD12 CD14 CD15 CD16 ::: 8 from CD9 CD13 ::: 12 from CD3 ::: 17 from CD11. State-wide allocations are 19 PLEOs and 31 at-large delegates. With only 3 out of 18 allocation categories of odd number of delegates, any options for easy delegate advantages are limited. If you are wondering what on earth is with CD3 and CD11 with huge number of delegates, well the population in those districts have voted for Democratic Party candidates in disproportionately high numbers (ratios against other districts).
Primary Election Information: Primary ballot/vote is scheduled for 15th March 2016. North Carolina operates an semi-open primary. Participation is open to all registered democrats and and unaffiliated voters. Voters must have been registered by 17th Feb for primary voting. Same day voter registration is not available. If you have missed primary voting deadline then there is still time to register at the early voting and for general election. Uncommitted option is available.
Early voting period between 17th Feb 2016 to 12 March 2016.
Double Barrel Primary: Presidential preference primary coincides with local and state primaries. Do not forget your local ballot people. Same goes for the General elections too.
Voter ID Laws: A Voter ID is required for voting (Ohio Drivers Licences even if has old address, Military ID with or without address, Government issued ID with Photo eg US passport/passport card, Veterans ID card, Military ID cards, Native American tribal enrolment card).
Also accepted utility bill (cell phone bills are also valid), bank statements, Government issued check or any other Government Document. So basically if government knows about you and told you so then you can can vote.
More details at http://www.sos.state.oh.us/sos/elections/Voters.aspx and http://www.sos.state.oh.us/sos/elections/Voters/FAQ.aspx
If you do not have a form of suitable ID, you can still vote by signing a declaration at the voting centre and providing one other identifying information (date of birth+ last4 digits of SS number). So if in doubt turn up anyway to vote.
Congressional District Based Delegate Allocation Triggers: The triggers for achieving delegates on congressional districts based allocations are listed below.
delegates acquired
out of available
|
4 del
cd1 cd2 cd4 cd5
cd6 cd7 cd8 cd10
cd12 cd14 cd15 cd16
|
8 del
cd9 cd13
|
12 del
cd3
|
17 del
cd11
|
Delegate Allocation Triggers
1 del |
15 |
15 |
15 |
15 |
2 del |
37.5 |
18.8 |
15 |
15 |
3 del |
62.5 |
31.3 |
20.9 |
15 |
4 del |
85 |
43.8 |
29.2 |
20.6 |
5 del |
|
56.3 |
37.5 |
26.5 |
6 del |
|
68.8 |
45.9 |
32.4 |
7 del |
|
81.3 |
54.2 |
38.3 |
8 del |
|
85 |
62.5 |
44.5 |
9 del |
|
|
70.9 |
50 |
10 del |
|
|
79.2 |
55.9 |
11 del |
|
|
85 |
61.8 |
12 del |
|
|
85 |
67.7 |
13 del |
|
|
|
73.6 |
For 4 Delegates at CD1 CD2 CD4 CD5 CD6 CD7 CD8 CD10 CD12 CD14 CD15 CD16: The first delegate here is available at 15%. Second delegate at 37.5%. Third delegate trigger is high at 62.5%. The whole range from 37.5 to 62.5 will still have delegates split 2-2. So these are decidedly the most boring for district based delegates. Only if a candidate is hovering around the threshold then these districts would see some action. Most of the districts in Ohio fall into this group. As always the vote share will count towards the state-wide results even if it is only towards a small portion. Without a spectacular success by a candidate achieving 62.5% this is just going to play at 2-2.
For 8 Delegates at CD9 CD13: Any vote share between 43.8% and 56.3% will result in a 4-4 delegate split. Crossing a threshold trigger 56.3% results in two delegate advantage 5-3. The next trigger at 68.8% for (6-2) split. Unless there is some major event 68.8% is quite a huge barrier. A (7-1) split is just extremely improbable it needs 81.3%. A (5-3) split with 56.3% is still within current levels of possibilities. After the 17 and 12 delegate districts in Ohio, these are the most promising places to aim for a delegate advantage.
For 12 Delegates at CD3: Crossing the viability threshold awards 2 delegates. Third delegate at 20.9%. subsequent delegates cost 8.3% each. Any vote share between 45.9% and 54.2% will result in a (6-6) delegate split. Crossing a threshold trigger 54.2% results in two delegate advantage (7-5). The next trigger at 62.5% for (8-4) split and a (9-3) split at 70.9%. If poll numbers are hovering around the triggers then any campaign effort would make an impact. This district CD3, due to larger proportion of Democratic Party voters has a disproportionate impact on state-wide results. Hence district is likely to see some efforts even if it is only for its state-wide impact.
For 17 Delegates at CD11: Crossing the viability threshold awards 3 delegates. Fourth delegate is cheap at 20.6%. Subsequent delegates cost only 5.9% each. Small movement could trigger a delegate advantage. Between 45.7 and 50% 8 delegates are achieved. The advantage break point of 50% gives a (9-8) favourable delegate split. Further triggers for additional delegates at 55.9% and 61.8% are within smaller movement than other districts. If poll numbers are hovering around the triggers then any campaign effort would make an impact. This district CD11 due to larger proportion of Democratic Party voters has a disproportionate impact on state-wide results. Hence district is likely to see some efforts even if it is only for its state-wide impact.
Delegate Allocations Based On State-Wide Results: Statewide results work towards two different category of delegates; 19 PLEOs and 31 At-Large delegates. The large numbers of delegates available also means that a smaller movement in support/vote level would result in delegate advantages. The movements however are likely to reflect movements in large delegate awarding districts CD11 and CD3 and to some extent CD9 and CD13.
For 19 Pledged PLEOs (Party Leaders and Elected Officials): (See table below.) Because of a large number of available delegates, the incremental steps are fairly small. Some of the extra delegates achieving triggers are listed below. Roughly 5.3% votes translates to 1 delegate. Reaching 15% threshold gives a starting point of 3 delegates. Fourth delegate is cheap at 18.5%. Subsequently every 5.3% gives an extra delegate. Favourable split of (10-9) occurs at 50%. In the table below, only some interesting triggers for PLEOs are listed. Corresponding At-Large delegates at that level are also listed for comparison. A separate table further down is just for at-large delegates.
Vote Share% |
15 |
18.5 |
34.3 |
39.5 |
44.8 |
50 |
55.3 |
60.6 |
65.8 |
State-Wide Delegate Allocation Triggers - PLEOs
PLEO (del19) |
3 |
4 |
7 |
8 |
9 |
10 |
11 |
12 |
13 |
Corresponding
At-Large (Del 31)
|
5 |
6 |
11 |
12 |
14 |
16 |
17 |
19 |
20 |
For 31 State-Wide(At-Large) Delegates: (See table below.) Because of a large number of available delegates, the incremental steps are fairly small. The some of the extra delegates achieving triggers are listed below. Roughly 3.2% votes translates to 1 delegate. Crossing 15% threshold gives a starting point of 5 delegates. Sixth delegate is cheap at 17.8%. Subsequently every 3.2% gives an extra delegate. Crossing the midway trigger of 50% gives a delegate advantage split of (16-15). For next delegate advantage 53.3% is needed. A little extra push could easily achieve this. In the table only some interesting trigger ranges are listed. Corresponding PLEO delegates at that level are also listed for comparison.
Vote Share % |
15 |
17.8 |
40.4 |
43.6 |
46.8 |
50 |
53.3 |
56.5 |
59.7 |
63 |
Delegate Allocation Triggers At-Large Delegates
At-Large (del31) |
5 |
6 |
13 |
14 |
15 |
16 |
17 |
18 |
19 |
20 |
Corresponding
PLEO (19)
|
3 |
3 |
8 |
8 |
9 |
10 |
10 |
11 |
11 |
12 |
Taking both categories into account 50% trigger is worth 2 delegate advantage. At-large delegates are acquired at a faster rate than PLEO delegates.
Next bit is my personal opinion: Most of the interest will be around the large delegate awarding districts CD11, CD3.
All 4 delegate districts will split evenly (2-2). Sanders will contain Clinton within the limits of 37.5%-62.5%. There is a substantial leeway to do this.
In 8 delegate Districts CD9, 13. I fully expect Clinton to edge out Sanders for delegate advantage split of (5-3) which needs Clinton to achieve only 56.3%
In 12 delegate district CD3 I expect Clinton to have an advantage again with (7-5) split which needs just 54.2%.
In 17 delegate district CD11, I expect a very good turnout for Clinton with (11-6) split.
Statewide Clinton will achieve delegate advantages in PLEO (11-8) and at-large (17-14). All combined state splitting (Sanders 63 - Clinton 80).
Previously covered states are all listed with the individual state links in this single document. I will be updating it as and when new states get done: All-Links-Collection-Delegate-Mathematics-Series-2016-Democratic-Primary
Enjoy and hopefully you will have spotted where you might tip the balance personally and like to campaign or make that extra push for your preferred candidate.
Today’s shout outs to Kossacks Village Vet and his Wow-We-re-Getting-Attention-in-Western-Nebraska
And to all the Kossacks in Readers-and-Book-Lovers. and their latest -Bookflurries-Bookchat-Who-Goes-There-And-Why