Hawaiʻi specific discussion of vote share and mathematics behind impact on delegate allocation of its 16 Delegates. This is part of mathematics of delegate allocation notes in the series of Delegate Mathematics stories. The state-wide Hawaiʻi Democratic Party is affiliated with national Democratic Party and participates in presidential nominee selection process within its umbrella.
Basic Data: Hawaiʻi has 23 delegates available. There are 2 Congressional Districts (CD). So including state-wide allocations PLEO and at-large delegates, there are 4 different delegate allocation units. Number of delegates available in are as follows: 8 from CD1 and CD2. Additionally 3 PLEOs and 6 At-large delegates allocated from state-wide results.
Caucus Information: Caucus is scheduled for 26th March 2016. Hawaiʻi operates a closed caucus. Uncommitted/Undeclared is a candidate by default.
Party affiliation can be changed on the day of the caucus at the door.Same day voter registration also available.
Hawaiʻi operates a three-tier caucus process. Delegates are elected first at precinct then at county to CD/state party state convention. The precinct caucuses coincide with precinct party/club meeting.
More information available at http://hawaiidemocrats.org/presidential-preference-poll/
Voter ID Laws: {Currently inconclusive about what ID is needed for caucus organized by the Democratic party. If changing affiliation or registering to vote, then normal ID for registration will be required. — ??}
For elections on election day itself in valid Voter ID is required for voting. Acceptable forms of ID are, voter ID card, driver's license, state ID card, or military ID card; passport, hunting or fishing license; or other current or valid photo identification. Additionally the following are also accepted if preceding items not available, current utility bill or pay check; government check or bank statement; or other government issued document.
More information at http://elections.hawaii.gov/voters/voting-in-hawaii-guide/
A provisional ballot may be cast if ID not available. So if in doubt turn up and vote.
Congressional District Based Delegate Allocation Triggers: (See table below). Due to proportional representation formula being used to allocate delegates from various districts, the number of delegates each candidate wins changes at certain specific percentage levels. Crossing/going past the vote percentages at those levels triggers a change in number of delegates awarded. The triggers for congressional districts based allocations are listed below. Since both congressional districts have 8 delegates each, same triggers apply individually.
| Delegates Acquired |
1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
Delegate Allocation Triggers
| Vote Share % CD1 CD2 |
15 |
18.8 |
21.3 |
43.8 |
56.3 |
68.8 |
83.4 |
85 |
For 8 Delegates at CD1 CD2: First delegate acquired at 15%, second at 18.8% and third at 31.3%. Any vote share between 43.8% and 56.3% will result in a 4-4 delegate split. Crossing a threshold trigger 56.3% results in two delegate advantage 5-3. The next trigger at 68.8% for 6-2 split. (7-1) split is just extremely improbable it needs 81.3%. The next trigger at 85% would award all 8 delegates.
Delegate Allocations Based On State-Wide Results: Statewide results work towards two different category of delegates; 3 PLEOs and 6 At-Large delegates. The small numbers of delegates available also means that only a larger movement in support/vote level would result in delegate advantages. Due to small number of delegates and a single result being used for all allocation, the table below lists all triggers together with corresponding delegate numbers in each category.
| Vote Share% |
15 |
16.7 |
25 |
41.7 |
50 |
58.4 |
75 |
83.3 |
85 |
|
|
State-wide Delegate Allocation Triggers
| PLEO (3Del) |
0 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
2 |
2 |
2 |
3 |
3 |
|
|
| At-Large (6Del) |
1 |
1 |
2 |
3 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
5 |
6 |
|
|
For 3 Pledged PLEOs (Party Leaders and Elected Officials): The first delegate is very cheap to acquire with just 16.7% votes. second delegate available to whoever manages to get more than 50% votes. That final delegate requires a whopping 83.3% votes. Unless the poll numbers are literally hovering around 50% marker, this place is unlikely to see much action. delegates splits 2-1 giving 1 delegate advantage for crossing 50% threshold.
For 6 State-wide (At-Large) Delegates: Within the whole range of 41.7 — 58.3 the delegate split will be straight 3-3. Interesting points are at 41.7%. and 58.3%, if candidates are hovering around either of these mark, then some extra effort would break the district 4-2 split. For an advantage a candidate has all the incentive to break it (4-2) split. with 58.3% votes.
Next bit is my personal opinion: My estimates are that Clinton will get at least 58.8%. The hold off to crossing next trigger and protection for Sanders curtsey of Tulsi Gabbard advocacy of Sanders.
In 8 delegate districts CD1 CD2 Clinton advantage with (5-3) split of delegates.
Statewide results (2-1) PLEOs and (4-2) at-large delegates. Overall combined for the whole state breaking (Clinton 16- Sanders 9).
Enjoy and hopefully you will have spotted where you might tip the balance personally and like to campaign or make that extra push for your preferred candidate.
Previously covered states are all listed with the individual state links in this single document. I will be updating it as and when new states get done: All-Links-Collection-Delegate-Mathematics-Series-2016-Democratic-Primary
Dedicated results tracker which gets updated after each primary/caucus here Democratic-Primary-Pledged-Delegates-Results-Tracker-Delegate-Mathematics
Today's shout outs to Kossacks libera nos and chicagobama.
Currently I am running through the list of states in chronological order. If anyone would like to see the mathematics for a particular state faster let me know and I will queue it up. And while interest lasts.
