Leading Off:
● CA-21, 25: Agua Dulce Town Councilman Lou Vince and Fowler City Councilman Daniel Parra are both Democrats, and they've both been running against potentially vulnerable Republican incumbents since April: Vince is challenging Rep. Steve Knight in the Los Angeles area's 25th District while Parra is trying to unseat Rep. David Valadao in the 21st, which sits in the San Joaquin Valley. The two candidates share a couple of other things in common as well: They've raised very little money, and yet they're also the favorites of local party activists.
As of Dec. 31, Parra had brought in just $49,000 and Vince only $55,000—sums that are at least an order of magnitude smaller than what any candidate hoping to knock off an incumbent would want to have raised after spending the better part of the year on the campaign trail. Those weak numbers have led DC Democrats to conclude that Vince and Parra can't win in November, which is why they've shown an interest in other options: attorney Bryan Caforio, who's already raised $138,000 despite only entering the race in December, and attorney Emilio Huerta, who hasn't yet filed any fundraising reports but brings some name recognition as the son of legendary labor leader Dolores Huerta.
But Caforio and Huerta have most certainly not felt the love from area activists. In the 25th, local Democrats are upset that Caforio only recently moved into the district and are angry at what they perceive to be the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee's efforts to "meddle" in the race. One comment sums up the situation well:
"There was a lot of negativity about the new guy. He is a carpetbagger," said Jodie Cooper, the club's executive vice president. "[Vince] really made a concerted effort to meet with people and then all of a sudden this guy comes in with money?"
Meanwhile, in the 21st, activists are upset with the DCCC, too: They say that last cycle, the committee "micro-managed" the unsuccessful campaign of Democrat Amanda Renteria and ignored local input. Never mind that Renteria lost by 16 points and no Democrat was going to beat Valadao in a Republican wave election like 2014, the bitterness still lingers—so much so that Huerta has openly criticized the D-Trip and insists the organization didn't recruit him to run.
And this split isn't just fodder for the press—it's already had some real-world ramifications.
Over the weekend, both Parra and Vince overwhelmingly earned so-called "pre-endorsement" votes from local Democratic Party delegates in their respective districts. This support is important for one big reason: The state Democratic Party will hold its convention later this month, where it will vote to officially endorse candidates ahead of the June top-two primary, and those pre-endorsements clear the way for the final nod.
While it may sound like a humble prize, it can actually be a great boon, because candidates who receive formal endorsements have their names included on the party's official sample ballot that gets distributed to voters. Given the challenges that every campaign faces in just simply communicating with the electorate, getting listed on the sample ballot is almost like having someone send out a free mailer for you to every voter—with the party's seal of approval, no less.
And indeed, a 2015 academic paper concluded that California candidates with their party's endorsement performed noticeably better in primaries than contenders who were running in races where no endorsement was issued, even when controlling for candidate quality. For contenders like Vince and Parra, who don't have much money to spare, it could provide a big boost
It's important to note, though, that the number of people involved in these pre-endorsement votes is incredibly small: While Parra and Vince both scored over 80 percent support, Parra received only 46 votes and Vince just 41. These activists may speak for others, but given how few people we're talking about, the extent of a division between local and national Democrats may be over-stated. And while the party's official endorsement is indeed meaningful, Caforio and perhaps Huerta as well will have establishment support that could make all the difference in the June primary.
Senate:
● CA-Sen: State Treasurer John Chiang briefly flirted with a campaign for this seat, he quickly passed. Now, Chiang is backing Attorney General Kamala Harris, who faces Rep. Loretta Sanchez, a fellow Democrat. Chiang is interested in running for governor in 2018, which would bring him into conflict with Lt. Gov. Gavin Newsom, who is friendly with Harris. It's possible that Chiang is hoping that, by backing Harris now, he can at least keep her from siding against him during the gubernatorial contest.
● CO-Sen: Rich guy Jack Graham, the former athletic director for Colorado State University, is one of a bajillion Republicans seeking to unseat Democratic Sen. Michael Bennet. However, Graham wasn't a Republican until recently: Until about a year ago, Graham was a registered Democrat. Graham's campaign manager Dick Wadhams is arguing that he was only a Democrat "by family tradition" because "[h]e grew up in San Francisco," and that he was just too busy to change his registration until recently. I'm sure Republican voters will have no problem with that excuse whatsoever. Also, not sure why Wadhams thought it was a good idea to tell GOP voters that Graham hails from San Francisco (gasp!) when his conservative credentials are being questioned.
Gubernatorial:
● VT-Gov: Rich guy Bruce Lisman, a Republican, is out with the first TV ad of the campaign. Lisman's minute-long spot decries Vermont's problems, with the candidate arguing that, "Vermont is in a very bad place, and it's entirely self-inflicted." Now that's some tough love! The ad then promotes Lisman's working-class origins and business career, before he gives his vague solutions. The commercial is running for only $28,000, though Lisman, who has an estimated net worth of at least $50 million, can afford to pay for a whole lot more. Lisman faces Lt. Gov. Phil Scott, the GOP establishment favorite, in the Aug. 9 primary.
House:
● CA-48: Last week former Orange County GOP chair Scott Baugh, who left the Assembly in 2000, set up a campaign account with the FEC. This 55-43 Romney seat is held by Republican Rep. Dana Rohrabacher. But according to Rohrabacher, Baugh isn't trying to unseat him.
Rohrabacher tells the Orange County Register that Baugh is "just laying the foundation for a race for Congress when I am no longer a member... but I don't know when that's going to be." Rohrabacher also speculated that he might get a major appointment in a future Republican administration, which would get him out of the House. Rohrabacher notably didn't say anything to the Register about his re-election plans, and he doesn't appear to have ever declared that he's running again. California's filing deadline is March 11 so if Rohrabacher is undecided about his future in Congress, he'll need to make up his mind soon.
Baugh himself has been completely silent about his own plans. Baugh hasn't so much as set up a Facebook page and according to Register reporter Louis Casiano, he hasn't offered any comments about his intentions either. It looks like Rohrabacher is telling the truth and Baugh is only getting ready to run to succeed him rather than unseat him, though we'll know for sure next month when candidate filing ends.
● MD-04: The primary for this safely Democratic district has shrunk in the last few days. Del. Dereck Davis pulled the plug on his campaign on Tuesday, one day before the candidate filing deadline. Davis cited a "broken Congress" as his reason for dropping out, though as the Baltimore Sun's John Fritze wryly puts it, "Capitol Hill is presumably not any more or less broken than it was when he entered the race last year."
In all likelihood, Davis just decided he didn't have much of a path to victory. Ex-Lt. Gov. Anthony Brown has plenty of name recognition from his unsuccessful 2014 gubernatorial bid; ex-Prince George's State's Attorney Glenn Ivey has the backing of some influential local Democrats, while Del. Joseline Peña-Melnyk has the support of the well-funded EMILY's List. Davis didn't have any of these advantages, and he would have had a very tough time carving out enough support to win the April primary. Former Prince George's County Councilor Ingrid Turner also dropped out, and she will instead seek a judgeship. Turner did some limited self-funding but had little cash available, so her decision also isn't a big surprise.
There are few other minor candidates, but unless there's a big surprise before filing closes on Wednesday, this will be a three-way primary between Brown, Ivey, and Peña-Melnyk. We've previously mentioned Alvin Thornton, who chaired the 2001 committee helped create the state's school funding guidelines. However, Thornton has barely raised money since he entered the race in July, so he likely won't be much of a factor in April.
● MD-08: That escalated quickly. On Tuesday, former hotel executive Kathleen Matthews' team accused rich guy David Trone, one of her many Democratic primary rivals, of trying to commit espionage against her campaign. Matthews' aides say that the day before, a man identified as "Joseph" came to their office to volunteer. However, they grew suspicious when "Joseph" got back from his canvass too quickly, and he tried to access the senior staff's office.
Trone issued a statement on Tuesday saying that another staff member tried to do the same thing to state Sen. Jamie Raskin, another candidate for this safely blue seat. Trone says that both "volunteers" and a supervisor have been fired, though as John Fritze points out, Trone didn't say if the two spies were paid staffers or what role the supervisor played in the campaign. This whole mess certainly doesn't make Trone look great, but we'll need to see if there's even more to this weird story.
● NY-22: It sure is strange to see how hard of a time both parties are having recruiting any contenders for the open-seat race in New York's swingy 22nd District. The latest Republican to say no is state Sen. Joe Griffo, which leaves the NRCC with two candidates they really don't want: Assemblywoman Claudia Tenney (an extremist tea partier) and former Broome County Legislator George Phillips (basically a Some Dude). There are still a couple of options left who haven't made up their minds, though: ex-state Sen. Roy Meier, who ran for a predecessor version of this seat in 2006, and college professor Catherine Bertini, a former director of the U.N. World Food Program.
Democrats aren't in any better shape, though. Their only candidate so far is former Oneida County Legislator, who describes himself as a "conservative Democrat" and doesn't cut an imposing profile. The only other person they're waiting to hear from (that we know about) is Broome County Legislator Kim Myers, who, as the daughter of Dick's Sporting Goods founder Dick Myers, may be personally wealthy. If these options don't pan out, though, we could see both sides turning to Random Local Businessman Who Has Never Run For Office Before.
● PA-08: On Monday, GOP state Rep. Scott Petri dropped out of the race for this swing seat. Petri had been running here for a few months and he had a credible amount of money available. However, former FBI agent Brian Fitzpatrick, the brother of retiring Rep. Mike Fitzpatrick, jumped into the race last month. Petri apparently decided that waging a primary against the Fitzpatrick family wasn't a good use of his time. The Bucks County GOP looked likely to endorse Fitzpatrick later this month, which probably hastened Petri's decision along. The filing deadline is Feb. 16, but it sounds unlikely that any tough candidates will enter the primary to take on Fitzpatrick. A few other Republicans are running here, but none of them have made any impression.
● TN-08: GOP Rep. Stephen Fincher only announced that he would retire on Monday and already, six Republicans are seeking his conservative West Tennessee seat. Lawyer David Kustoff ran for the neighboring 7th District in 2002, but he lost the primary to Marsha Blackburn 40-20. Kustoff quickly landed on his feet: He served as George W. Bush's state chair during the 2004 election and soon became a US attorney. State Sen. Brian Kelsey is also seeking this post, and GOP sources tell Roll Call that they expect he'll be a "strong contender;" state Rep. Steve McManus is also in the hunt here.
We also have Shelby County Register of Deeds Tom Leatherwood, another member of the "Beaten By Blackburn" band. Leatherwood tried to unseat her in 2008, but he lost 62-38. Shelby County Commissioner Steve Basar is also in; Basar considered running against Democratic Rep. Steve Cohen in the safely blue 9th District before Fincher retired, which doesn't speak well to his political instincts. Radiologist George Flinn, a former Shelby County commissioner, has freely spent his own money in past campaigns, but it's done him little good. He recently challenged Sen. Lamar Alexander in the 2014 primary and took just 5 percent of the vote.
A number of other local Republicans are mulling bids here. One familiar name is physician Ron Kirkland, who lost to Fincher 48-24 in 2010 (Flinn took another 24 percent). Since then, Kirkland has served as chair of the Legislative Committee of the Tennessee Medical Association, so he may have some good connections. State Senate Majority Leader Mark Norris, ex-Madison County Commission Chairman Mark Johnstone, and Shelby County Mayor Mark Luttrell have also expressed interest. Roll Call also names a ton of other people who might get in as well. The filing deadline is April 7.
● VA-02: Ever since Rep. Scott Rigell announced his retirement last month, fellow GOP Rep. Randy Forbes has been reportedly eyeing this district. Forbes' old seat will be unwinnable for Team Red under the new court-drawn map and while Forbes doesn't represent any of the new 2nd, he has some name recognition in Hampton Roads (both the 2nd and Forbes' old seat are located in the Norfolk media market). But Forbes only publicly acknowledged his interest in the 2nd this week, though he didn't give any timeline for when he'll make a decision.
State Del. Scott Taylor is running here, and he's ready to portray Forbes as a carpetbagger. However, Rigell says he'll back Forbes if he gets in. Romney only narrowly carried the new version of the 2nd, but no Democrats have made noises about campaigning here yet.
● WI-08: Interest is running high in Wisconsin's 8th District, newly open now that GOP Rep. Reid Ribble has decided to retire after just three terms in office. Several more Republicans have said they're considering bids, including state Sens. Frank Lasee and Roger Roth, state Rep. Andre Jacque, and ex-state Rep. Chad Weininger. They join two other state representatives who've already put their names in circulation, John Nygren and David Steffen. Assembly Majority Leader Jim Steineke, however, says he's out.
For Democrats, the potential field is smaller. Lars Johnson, who is the "co-owner of Al Johnson's Swedish Restaurant with its famous rooftop goats," says he's looking at the race, but adds that he's apt to defer to Outagamie County Executive Tom Nelson should he run. (Nelson previously said he's thinking about it.) Meanwhile, former Rep. Steve Kagen, who lost to Ribble in 2010, says he's happy practicing medicine once more and won't make a comeback. State Rep. Eric Genrich is a no as well.
Ballot Measures:
● MI Ballot: Some Michigan Democrats are starting to talk about one of the smartest things they can possible do to simultaneously promote democracy and advance the party's interests: putting a measure on the ballot that would move the state's gubernatorial elections to presidential years. As every political observer knows, midterms are the death-knell for turnout, as far fewer voters show up compared to elections when the presidency is on the ballot. This falloff also disproportionately harms Democrats, which is a big part of the reason why a state like Michigan has a Republican governor and legislature, even though it hasn't voted for the Republican presidential ticket since 1988.
According to columnist Brian Dickerson, it's a very quiet push so far, spearheaded by "unidentified Democratic and independent activists" who are eager to avoid politicizing what should ideally be a non-partisan issue. Republicans, predictably, are opposed to the idea, but it's earning a warm reception from non-partisan groups like the state branches of the League of Women Voters and Common Cause. And according to a poll from EPIC-MRA (taken for an unnamed client), 60 percent of voters view the proposal favorably while only 32 percent would oppose it.
If such a plan were to pass, the regularly scheduled election for governor would go ahead in 2018, but only for a special two-year term; new elections would then be held in 2020 and every four years thereafter. But to get such a measure on the ballot, supporters would need to submit a quarter-million signatures by July—no easy task. Indeed, like-minded reformers in Florida mooted the very same idea last year but soon gave up on it. Still, it's an incredibly important one, and Democrats should pursue it vigorously not only in Michigan but in any state where this change can be implemented at the ballot box.
Mayoral:
● Portland, OR Mayor: State Treasurer Ted Wheeler, a Democrat, hoped to run for governor in 2018, but his path was blocked after John Kitzhaber resigned and Kate Brown took over. But things are going much better in Wheeler's bid to become head of Oregon's largest city. Wheeler faces Multnomah County Commissioner Jules Bailey, but he's absolutely winning the cash race: Wheeler reports raising $357,000 since he announced in September, while Bailey only took in $25,000. A third contender, Sarah Iannarone, is also in, but she has little political experience. All the candidates will compete in the May non-partisan primary; in the event that no one takes a majority, the top two vote-getters will advance to the November general.
The Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir and Jeff Singer, with additional contributions from David Jarman, Steve Singiser, Daniel Donner, and Stephen Wolf.
