Looking Ahead - Preliminary Projections for 2018 Senate Elections

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Monday February 08, 2016 · 9:44 PM PST

2016/02/08 · 21:44

It is early, with the composition of the 115th Congress yet to be decided, but I have been thinking into the future, about the next midterm elections for the Senate part of the 116th Congress. A Republican president might mean fewer losses for Democratic Senators in 2018, which will be almost completely defensive for them. Republicans have just 8 seats up, most in safely red states, while Democrats have 25 (counting the 2 I's). Here are how I see the races playing out if the 2018 Senate elections were held today, even before the 2016 races.

(Cross-posted at RRH Elections.)

Arizona - Jeff Flake - Likely to Safe GOP, though a strong Democrat may be able to at least make it competitive.

California - Dianne Feinstein - Safe DEM; she will be 85 in 2018, but she's a lifer.

Connecticut - Chris Murphy - Safe DEM; Republicans have a better chance at taking the governorship after two terms of unpopular Democrat Malloy.

Delaware - Tom Carper - Safe DEM

Florida - Bill Nelson - Likely DEM if Nelson runs, though at 73 he might be a contender for retirement. If that happens, holding this seat will be very difficult with almost no one on the bench, as besides Nelson, Democrats have had trouble winning statewide in recent elections.

Hawaii - Mazie Hirono - Safe DEM

Indiana - Joe Donnelly - Competitive, as I doubt Republicans will repeat the mistakes of 2012, and turnout will guaranteed be lower.

Maine - Angus King - Safe IND; LePage is not exactly Mr. Popularity and I doubt Snowe will come out of retirement. Democrats outside of the Presidency have also had trouble winning statewide here post-2006.

Maryland - Ben Cardin - Safe DEM

Massachusetts - Elizabeth Warren - Safe DEM unless Baker runs, but Warren is no Coakley.

Michigan - Debbie Stabenow - Likely to Safe DEM. With Bush's unpopularity in 2006 and a presidential race in 2012, 2018 will be Stabenow's first real test since her first win in 2000. Snyder's drop in popularity (which may drop more in the wake of the water situation in Flint) can probably only help her, plus one of the Republicans' strongest candidates, Terri Lynn Land, couldn't win an open seat in a much redder year.

Minnesota - Amy Klobuchar - Safe DFL

Mississippi - Roger Wicker - Safe GOP

Missouri - Claire McCaskill - Like Donnelly in Indiana, McCaskill got lucky with her Republican challenger. Also like Donnelly, I don't think Republicans will repeat the mistakes of 2012 here either, and Missouri has become crimson red outside of Kansas City and St. Louis.

Montana - Jon Tester - This is probably one of the more worrisome races for Democrats. Even with presidential turnout, Tester couldn't get 50% even with presidential turnout. It seems the Democrats' base in Montana is the 3-legged stool of retired union workers, college students, and Native Americans. If even one of those legs disappears, then that means trouble.

Nebraska - Deb Fischer - Safe GOP

Nevada - Dean Heller - Lean to Likely GOP. While Republicans in Nevada are more vulnerable than in elections past, Democrats still have some work to do, though they will probably target the open governorship more. While 2012 was very close, with an almost guaranteed drop-off in turnout in 2018, Heller's margin will probably be wider.

New Jersey - Bob Menendez - Likely DEM; Republicans have had better luck with the governorship than the Senate, and Christie's presidential run probably won't help either.

New Mexico - Martin Heinrich - Safe DEM; might be competitive if Susanna Martinez, who is termed out, runs unless she becomes VP.

New York - Kirsten Gillibrand - Safe DEM

North Dakota - Heidi Heitkamp - I was surprised she managed to pull it off against the sitting Republican Representative last time, though like Indiana and Missouri, I think Republicans will find a stronger candidate from their large bench.

Ohio - Sherrod Brown - Brown is more entrenched, though it is hard to not see this race as competitive, especially if the termed-out Kasich runs. Brown, like Obama, has managed to beat the odds though and win with a decimated state party, though the win was only in single digits.

Pennsylvania - Bob Casey, Jr. - Having also won by just single digits last time, Casey seems to be in a similar situation as Brown, except Pennsylvania is more Democratic than Ohio, Casey is probably a better fit, and Republicans will probably focus more of their efforts at Governor Wolf.

Rhode Island - Sheldon Whitehouse - Safe DEM

Tennessee - Bob Corker - Safe GOP

Texas - Ted Cruz(?) - Safe GOP with or without Cruz.

Utah - Orrin Hatch - Safe GOP even if Hatch retires.

Vermont - Bernie Sanders - Safe IND if Sanders runs; very likely safe DEM if Sanders becomes President.

Virginia - Tim Kaine - Competitive due to lower turnout in an otherwise bluish-purple state; however Northern Virginia might help Kaine like it helped Democrats in past elections.

Washington - Maria Cantwell - Safe DEM. Republicans could make it a race, but I don't see anyone at this point.

West Virginia - Joe Manchin - Another Democratic seat in danger of flipping, probably the likeliest Dem-held seat to flip, with the state turning from almost completely DEM to almost completely GOP in less than a decade.

Wisconsin - Tammy Baldwin - Another trouble spot as Democrats tend to shine in presidential years, Republicans tend to shine in midterms, and Walker might be a possible challenger.

Wyoming - John Barrasso - Safe GOP

So that puts the tally at:

6 safe Republicans: Wicker, Fischer, Corker, Cruz, Hatch, Barrasso

2 possibly vulnerable Republicans: Flake, Heller

12 safe Democrats (including 2 Dem-caucusing I's): Feinstein, Murphy, Carper, Hirono, King, Cardin, Warren, Klobuchar, Gillibrand, Whitehouse, Sanders, Cantwell

3 currently safe Democrats who could become vulnerable if circumstances change: Stabenow, Heinrich, Menendez

7 possibly vulnerable Democrats: Nelson, Donnelly, McCaskill, Heitkamp, Casey, Kaine, Baldwin

3 very vulnerable Democrats: Tester, Brown, Manchin

Of course we need to see the 2016 results before predicting whether or not Republicans will reach 60 in 2018, but Democrats will need to do really well this year, possibly gaining 3 or 4 seats, to keep Republicans below 60 if Hillary or Bernie gets elected president. If we end up with President Trump, Cruz, Rubio, or whoever, then a Republican president might be a blessing in disguise for McCaskill, Tester, and Manchin unless the Republican president is wildly popular in 2018.

Poll
3142 votes Show Results
What do you think will be the net change in 2018 Senate?

Republicans gain 6 or more

Republicans gain 3-5

Republicans gain 1-2

No net change

Democrats gain 1-2

3142 votes Vote Now!
What do you think will be the net change in 2018 Senate?

Republicans gain 6 or more

36%

1119 votes

Republicans gain 3-5

27%

835 votes

Republicans gain 1-2

12%

381 votes

No net change

4%

138 votes

Democrats gain 1-2

21%

669 votes

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