Leading Off:
● FL-Sen: Boy, Republicans really, really don't like their current Senate options in Florida, huh? It was just the other week that rich guy Carlos Beruff got into the race, on the thinking that no one was particularly happy with the other rich guy, the congressman, the other congressman, or the lieutenant governor already running. But did that satisfy anyone? Not hardly! Some GOP operatives then went spelunking in Giza and tried to entice Ben Carson down to the Sunshine State, but he said no thanks—not even for all the "goodies."
So now we've got yet another rich guy contemplating a bid, according to unnamed sources cited by Politico: former ambassador Francis Rooney, who served as George W. Bush's envoy to the Vatican from 2005 to 2008. In addition to being well-connected—you don't get a plum diplomatic gig like that if you're a schnook—he's also very wealthy and gave at least $2 million to Jeb Bush's failed presidential bid. (What was that about being a schnook, though?)
Interestingly, despite being a wealthy Floridian named Rooney, Francis apparently is unrelated to the Rooney clan that owns the Pittsburgh Steelers, one of whose members, Tom, is a Republican who represents a congressional seat in the south-central part of the state.
But will Francis Rooney wind up looking more like Tom Rooney or Ed Rooney? He has the money and relationships to make an impact, though he reeks of 1-percenter-dom in an election year when Establishment Figures have not been faring particularly well in GOP primaries. What's more, there are simply a ton of candidates in the race, and since he's never held office before, Rooney will start out with limited name recognition. Les jeux is most definitely not faits.
Senate:
● GA-Sen: On the eve of Georgia's filing deadline, wealthy businessman Jim Barksdale announced that he would challenge Republican Sen. Johnny Isakson. Democratic state party officials sound excited about Barksdale, who can reportedly self-fund, and it doesn't sound like he'll face any significant primary opposition. While ex-state Sen. Regina Thomas recently made noises about getting in, she's since taken her name out of consideration.
There's little doubt that Isakson will be hard to take down. While the senator is conservative, he hasn't done much to alienate voters in what is still a red state. Georgia election law also makes life difficult for Democrats. If no candidate takes a majority in the November general election, the top two vote-getters advance to a runoff. In the 2008 general, Republican incumbent Saxby Chambliss only outpaced Jim Martin 49.8-46.8. But in the December runoff, weak Democratic turnout propelled Chambliss to a 57-43 win. It's no secret that Team Blue still struggles to turn out voters when the presidential race isn't headlining the ballot, so Barksdale really needs to go for a majority in November.
Still, this contest is worth keeping an eye on. Georgia has been growing more diverse in recent years, and a radioactive Republican presidential nominee could push its 16 electoral votes into the blue column. If that happens and Barksdale runs a strong race, things could get interesting.
● OH-Sen: While ex-Gov. Ted Strickland has had trouble raising money for his bid against Republican Sen. Rob Portman, most polls show a tight general election between them. PPP adds to the pile, giving Strickland a 41-40 edge. Portman's 35-38 approval rating isn't much different from Strickland's 35-39 favorability score (though of course favorability ratings and approval ratings aren't the same thing).
Strickland faces Cincinnati City Councilor P.G. Sittenfeld in Tuesday's Democratic primary, but this poll suggests the former governor has nothing to worry about. Strickland leads 50-16, with Some Dude Kelli Prather at 6. PPP also tested Portman's primary just for kicks, and finds him brushing past his Some Dude foe Don Eckhart 60-7.
● PA-Sen: The April 26 Democratic primary for the right to face GOP Sen. Pat Toomey isn't far away, and the outside spending has begun. EMILY's List endorsed national party favorite Katie McGinty a while ago, and they've announced that they'll spend at least $1 million here. Pennsylvania is an expensive state and while $1 million is significant, it's not massive. Indeed, ex-Gov. Ed Rendell, who serves as McGinty's co-chair, told Politico that he expects EMILY to spend at least $2 million, while other groups like the League of Conservation Voters will also chip in.
A new group called Accountable Leadership PAC recently announced that they were spending $250,000 for 2010 nominee Joe Sestak, the other major Democratic contender, and we have a copy of their spot. The narrator starts by claiming that in 2010, Sestak was "the one Democrat who stood up to fight Pat Toomey's right-wing politics." That's not exactly true: Sestak successfully challenged party-switching incumbent Arlen Specter in the Democratic primary that year. The ad then promotes Sestak's 422-mile walk across the state last year before highlighting his military career. Braddock Mayor John Fetterman is also seeking the Democratic nod, but he's raised little money and no major outside groups have endorsed him.
House:
● AZ-05: On Wednesday, state Rep. Justin Olson announced that he would run for this safely red seat. Olson will face state Senate President Andy Biggs, who has the support of retiring Rep. Matt Salmon and Maricopa County Sheriff Joe Arpaio and is also personally wealthy. A number of other Republicans have expressed interest in running in the late August primary but so far, Olson's the only one who is actually taking on the well-connected Biggs. Ex-Mesa Mayor Scott Smith recently said he was days away from deciding, though he hasn't made any announcement yet. The filing deadline is in June.
● FL-01: On Thursday, Rep. Jeff Miller announced that he would not seek re-election in this safely red Pensacola-area seat. Miller's decision concludes a strange cycle for the usually low-key congressman. Last year, Miller all-but-declared that he would run for the US Senate before he suddenly announced that he'd sit the contest out.
Miller's 2015 Senate flirtations gave us an early peek at who was interested in running for his seat. Last summer, state Sen. Greg Evers said that he would run for the House if Miller did not, while wealthy ex-state Senate President Don Gaetz also expressed interest in succeeding Miller. It's unclear what either man will do now a better part of a year has passed. However, multiple sources tell Peter Schorsch that state Rep. Matt Gaetz, who is Don's son, is very interested in running and is contacting donors. The filing deadline is June 24, and the primary will be held at the end of August.
● FL-18: Rich guy Randy Perkins is the favorite of national Democrats for this competitive open seat, and he recently earned an endorsement from neighboring Rep. Alcee Hastings. On the GOP side, Rep. Tom Rooney has endorsed Martin County School Board member Rebecca Negron. Rooney represented about two-thirds of this seat for a single term from 2011 to 2013, so he may have some pull with voters here.
● FL-23: Professor Tim Canova is going to have a very tough time unseating DNC head Debbie Wasserman Schultz in the August primary for this safely blue seat, but he did get an endorsement from National Nurses United on Wednesday. Canova's going to need money if he's going to make this a race, and this group could help him make some connections if nothing else.
● IN-03: Wealthy farmer Kip Tom is out with his second TV spot ahead of the May primary for this safely red seat. Tom's ad features the candidate and his father: Tom tells the audience how growing up, his dad taught him how to shovel manure, something politicians throw around a lot. The rest of the commercial promotes Tom as an ardent conservative who is not a politician. Tom also recently received an endorsement from the Indiana Farm Bureau's long-time head, which isn't a bad get in a district with a large rural population.
● NC-12: On Wednesday, ex-state Sen. Malcolm Graham became the first candidate to announce that he would challenge Rep. Alma Adams in the June Democratic primary for this redrawn seat. Graham and Adams faced off in 2014 for the old version of this district; Graham had trouble raising money, but he did beat Adams 43-17 in the Mecklenburg County part of the constituency. While Adams represents a little more than half of the new seat, she's lost her Greensboro base. Adams worked hard to raise her profile in the Charlotte area during her term in Congress and on Thursday, she announced that she would move to the city. Still, Graham and anyone else who runs here isn't going to hesitate to portray the congresswoman as a carpetbagger.
Graham is unlikely to be Adams' only foe in this safely blue seat. While state Rep. Rodney Moore has not announced that he's in yet (despite an earlier report saying he'd do so last week), his website identifies him as a candidate for Congress. However, Moore's campaign doesn't seem to be firing on all cylinders yet, since that same site also, as of Thursday afternoon, says, "Welcome to the official re-election website for Rep. Rodney Moore." Ex-Charlotte Mayor Pro Tem Michael Barnes and state Rep. Tricia Cotham have both expressed interest in this seat, while state Rep. Carla Cunningham is also reportedly looking at it.
North Carolina did away with its primary runoffs for the year, and a crowded field would probably work in the incumbent's favor. Adams does start with a fundraising head start, though the $193,000 she had in the bank at the end of 2015 is hardly earth shattering. Adams did get some good news recently when she earned an endorsement from the League of Conservation Voters, a group that tends to spend real money to support its allies. The candidate filing deadline is March 25, though the state's new congressional map has not yet been approved in federal court. Whoever wins the Democratic primary won't have any trouble in the general election.
● NH-02: While state Senate President Chuck Morse was reportedly considering a bid against Democratic Rep. Annie Kuster, he's made it clear that he'll seek re-election instead. So far, ex-state Majority Leader Jack Flanagan is the only notable Republican challenging Kuster in this 54-45 Obama seat.
● NV-04: A couple of big national groups have chosen sides in the Democratic primary in Nevada's 4th Congressional District, where several candidates are vying for the right to take on freshman GOP Rep. Cresent Hardy. EMILY's List is backing non-profit president Susie Lee, even though there's another pro-choice woman running a credible campaign, former Assemblywoman Lucy Flores. EMILY didn't offer any explanation as to why it went with Lee over Flores, but they've made similar decisions in two-woman contests in the past, such as the race for New Hampshire governor in 2012 (picking Maggie Hassan instead of Jackie Cilley), or for Alabama's 7th Congressional District in 2010 (going with Terri Sewell rather than Shelia Smoot).
Meanwhile, the League of Conservations voters is endorsing state Sen. Ruben Kihuen, who also has Harry Reid's backing. The LCV is one of the most active environmental groups in politics and has spent big to help its preferred candidates in the past, though it's usually more focused on general elections rather than primaries.
● TN-08: The GOP pollster Remington Research is out with the first poll of the August primary for this safely red West Tennessee seat, and they give the edge to Shelby County Mayor Mark Luttrell. The survey, which Remington says was not commissioned by any candidate or committee, gives Luttrell a 26-11 lead over George Flinn, a wealthy perennial candidate, while state Sen. Brian Kelsey takes 9. Ex-US Attorney David Kustoff and Shelby County Register of Deeds Tom Leatherwood take 8 and 7 respectively, and Shelby County Commissioner Steve Basar is at 1.
About one-third of the district lives in Shelby County and even more watches Memphis TV, so it's no surprise that this poll shows Luttrell with the most initial support, though things can very well change once the ads begin to fly. Unlike many other Southern states, there is no primary runoff in Tennessee, so a simple plurality is all that's needed to win. The filing deadline is April 7 so the field may not have completely taken shape yet, though state Senate Majority Leader Mark Norris recently announced that he wouldn't run here.
● VA-02: Virginia's March 31 filing deadline isn't far away, and it doesn't look like we're in for a crowded race here. While GOP Del. Glenn Davis was initially mentioned as a possible contender, he's running for lieutenant governor in 2017 instead. The GOP fight remains a duel between Rep. Randy Forbes, who fled here after his old seat became safely blue, and Del. Scott Taylor, who is portraying Forbes as a carpetbagger. Romney only narrowly carried this Hampton Roads seat, but no notable Democrats have even expressed interest in running here.
Mayoral:
● Baltimore, MD Mayor: On behalf of The Baltimore Sun and University of Baltimore, OpinionWorks is out with a new poll of the April 26 Democratic primary, and they give state Sen. Catherine Pugh a tiny 26-24 lead against ex-Mayor Shelia Dixon. Wealthy businessman David Warnock is the only candidate who has aired a significant number of ads so far, but he's only in third place with 10 percent.
Councilor Nick Mosby, lawyer Elizabeth Embry, and Councilor Carl Stokes take 6, 5, and 3 respectively, while Black Lives Matter activist DeRay Mckesson is at 1. The only other recent poll we've seen was a January Gonzales survey that gave Dixon, who resigned in disgrace in 2009, a 27-18 lead over Pugh. It only takes a simple plurality to win the Democratic nod, which is tantamount to election in Baltimore.
Grab Bag:
● Site News: Over the weekend, Daily Kos will be changing email providers, so if you subscribe to the email version of the Morning Digest, have no fear: Monday's edition will hit your inbox late, but it'll get there! If you need your fix at the usual hour, though, just visit Daily Kos Elections on the web, since we always post the Digest there, too.
The Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir and Jeff Singer, with additional contributions from David Jarman, Steve Singiser, Daniel Donner, and Stephen Wolf.
