Wisconsin specific discussion of vote share and mathematics behind impact on delegate allocation of its 86 Delegates. This is part of mathematics of delegate allocation notes in the series of Delegate Mathematics stories.
Basic Data: Wisconsin has 86 delegates available. There are 8 Congressional Districts. So including state-wide allocations PLEO and at-large delegates, there are 10 different delegate allocation units. Number of delegates available in each are as follows: 5 from CD5; 6 from CD1 CD6 CD7 CD8; 7 from CD3; 10 from CD4; 11 from CD2. Additionally 10 PLEOs and 19 At-large delegates allocated from state-wide results.
Primary Election Information: Primary ballot/vote is scheduled for 5th April 2016. Wisconsin operates an open primary. There is no recording of party affiliation during voter registration. Participation is open to everyone. Just need to ask for Democrats ballot.
Same day registration is available.
More information at http://www.gab.wi.gov/elections-voting
Early Voting/Absentee Voting: http://www.gab.wi.gov/elections-voting/voters/absentee runs two weeks before the election. (17th march to 1st April){dnddcheckdateagain}
Voter ID Laws: A valid ID is required for voting. More details on what to bring here at http://bringit.wisconsin.gov/ and at http://bringit.wisconsin.gov/do-i-have-right-photo-id
Acceptable forms of ID: A Wisconsin DOT-issued driver license (even if driving privileges are revoked or suspended), A Wisconsin DOT-issued identification card, A Wisconsin DOT-issued identification card or driver license without a photo issued under the religious exemption, Military ID card issued by a U.S. uniformed service, A U.S. passport, An identification card issued by a federally recognized Indian tribe in Wisconsin (May be used even if expired before the most recent general election.),
Also valid if not expired are: A certificate of naturalization that was issued not earlier than two years before the date of an election at which it is presented, A driving receipt issued by Wisconsin DOT (valid for 45 days), An identification card receipt issued by Wisconsin DOT (valid for 45 days), A photo identification card issued by a Wisconsin accredited university, college or technical college that contains date of issuance, signature of student, and an expiration date no later than two years after date of issuance. Also, the university, college or technical college ID must be accompanied by a separate document that proves enrolment, A citation or notice of intent to revoke or suspend a Wisconsin DOT-issued driver license that is dated within 60 days of the date of the election,
Wisconsin SoS makes a point of stating: here is no such thing as a "Wisconsin Voter ID Card." The new Voter Photo ID Law uses existing photo IDs for people to prove their identity before voting; The address on your ID doesn’t have to be current. And the name on your ID doesn’t need to be an exact match for your name in the poll book. (So, Richards who go by Rich, Bobs who are also Roberts and Susans with IDs for Sue can all relax.); Of course, there are certain requirements. Your ID should look like you. Even if you’ve colored your hair, shaved your beard or lost some weight, as long as your photo ID reasonably resembles you, it should be accepted.
State is slightly more informative than some of the other states that seem to positively hide the information.
Congressional District Based Delegate Allocation Triggers: (See table below). Due to proportional representation formula being used to allocate delegates from various districts, the number of delegates each candidate wins changes at certain specific percentage levels. Crossing/going past the vote percentages at those levels triggers a change in number of delegates awarded. The triggers for congressional districts based allocations are listed below. Districts with same number of available delegates are grouped.
Delegates Acquired
Out of available
|
5 del
cd5
|
6 del
CD1 cd6
cd7 cd8
|
7 del
cd3
|
10 del
cd4
|
11 del
cd2
|
Delegate Allocation Triggers
1 del |
15 |
15 |
15 |
15 |
15 |
2 del |
30 |
25 |
21.4 |
15 |
15 |
3 del |
50 |
41.7 |
35.7 |
25 |
22.7 |
4 del |
70 |
58.4 |
50 |
35 |
31.8 |
5 del |
85 |
75 |
64.3 |
45 |
40.1 |
6 del |
|
85 |
78.6 |
55 |
50 |
7 del |
|
|
85 |
65 |
59.1 |
8 del |
|
|
|
75 |
68.2 |
For 5 Delegates at CD5: First delegate acquired at 15%, second delegate at 30.%. Third delegate trigger is nicely balanced at 50%. Fourth delegate costs a whopping 70%. This 70% votes are needed to get a 4-1 split might be a bit too demanding. This district becomes very crucial as they break just with small % hovering at 50%, a whole delegate is available. Goal for any Campaign is to cross the 50% and obtain a 3-2 split in their favour. Successfully breaking these districts will give a delegate advantage straight away. These 5 delegate awarding districts will be contributing to delegate advantages. Campaign activity might be a bit more heavy here.
For 6 Delegates at CD1 CD6 CD7 CD8: Within the whole range of 41.7 — 58.3 the delegate split will be straight 3-3. Interesting points are at 41.7%. and 58.3%, if candidates are hovering around either of these mark, then some extra effort would break the district 4-2 split. For an advantage a candidate has all the incentive to break it 4-2split. with 58.3% votes. Otherwise we are looking at a straight 3-3 split.
For 7 Delegates at CD3: Within the range of 35.7% — 50% the 3 delegates each will be allocated. The fight for the 7th delegate is again precariously balanced at 50% marker to make the overall break 4-3 split. To achieve a 5-2 split votes need to be at 64.3% or higher.
For 10 Delegates at CD4: First two delegates achieved cheaply at 15%. Subsequently every extra 10% gives an additional delegates. Any vote share between 45% and just under 55% will result in a 5-5 delegate split. Crossing a threshold trigger 55% results in two delegate advantage 6-4. The next trigger at 65% for 7-3 split. Unless there is some major event 75% is quite a huge barrier for 8-2 split. 85% will give all 10 delegates.
For 11 Delegates at CD2: The first two delegates are very cheap to acquire with just 15% votes. Third delegate available at 22.73%. Subsequently roughly 9% vote equals 1 delegate. There are many trigger points which award additional delegate. Advantageous break occurs at crossing 50% to obtain (6-5) split.
Delegate Allocations Based On State-Wide Results: Statewide results work towards two different category of delegates; 10 PLEOs and 19 At-Large delegates. The large numbers of delegates available in these categories also mean that a smaller movement in support/vote level would be needed for delegate advantages.
For 10 Pledged PLEOs (Party Leaders and Elected Officials): (See table below.) First two delegates achieved cheaply at 15%. Subsequently every extra 10% gives an additional delegates. Any vote share between 45% and just under 55% will result in a 5-5 delegate split. Crossing a threshold trigger 55% results in two delegate advantage 6-4. The next trigger at 65% for 7-3 split. Unless there is some major event 75% is quite a huge barrier for 8-2 split. 85% will give all 10 delegates. Table shows triggers for PLEOs. At-large delegates corresponding those triggers are also listed. There is a separate table further down focused on at-large delegate triggers.
Vote Share% |
15 |
25 |
35 |
45 |
55 |
65 |
75 |
85 |
State-wide Delegates for Vote% Share - PLEOs
PLEOs (10) |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
10 |
Corresponding
At-Large Del(19)
|
3 |
5 |
7 |
9 |
10 |
12 |
14 |
19 |
For 19 Statewide (at-large) delegates: (See table below). Because of a large number of available delegates, the incremental steps are fairly small. Some of the extra delegates achieving triggers are listed below. Roughly 5.3% votes translates to 1 delegate. Reaching 15% threshold gives a starting point of 3 delegates. Fourth delegate is cheap at 18.5%. Subsequently every 5.3% gives an extra delegate. Favourable split of (10-9) occurs at 50%. In the table below, only some interesting triggers for PLEOs are listed. Corresponding At-Large delegates at that level are also listed for comparison. A separate table further down is just for at-large delegates.
Vote Share% |
15 |
18.5 |
34.3 |
39.5 |
44.8 |
50 |
55.3 |
60.6 |
65.8 |
71.1 |
76.4 |
81.6 |
Delegate Allocation triigers - AT-Large delegates
At-Large (del 19) |
3 |
4 |
7 |
8 |
9 |
10 |
11 |
12 |
13 |
14 |
15 |
16 |
PLEO (Del 10) |
2 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
6 |
7 |
7 |
8 |
8 |
Next bit is my personal opinion: A bit of a mixed state in terms of population centres. While I expect Clinton to easily achieve a high percentage of votes from CD2 and CD4, Sanders might have an advantage in other areas.
In 5 Delegate CD5, Sanders will probably have an advantageous break of (3-2).
In 6 delegate CD1 (home of Paul Ryan), I expect the district to break in favour of Clinton (4-2). In other 6 Delegate districts CD6 CD7 and CD8, I expect Sanders to have a better break with (4-2) delegate split.
In 7 delegate CD3, I expect Sanders to achieve advantage at (4-3)
In 10 delegate CD4, I expect Clinton to fully break it (6-4).
In 11 delegate CD2 again I expect Clinton to comfortably break it (6-5).
Statewide breaking just around 56% in Clinton favour. Although there are two triggers here in play, at 55 and 55.3, I expect the state to be competed for heavily. My calculation is for Clinton at 56% delegates breaking (11-8) for at large and (6-4) for PLEOs. All combined total (Clinton 44 — Sanders 42). Wisconsin is unlikely to provide Sanders with the numbers needed to claw back the delegate gap with Clinton. My mixed results is sort of taking into account the large number of delegates from CD4 and CD2 is due to higher volume of Democratic party voters. District 4, containing urban Milwaukee, has a higher proportion of AA.
Even if all the districts were to break in Sanders favour as much as possible (not counting CD4), the split would still be only (Clinton39 — Sanders 47). Sanders advantage would only be of 8 delegates. Every delegate counts, so need to look for the rest of the gap elsewhere.
Previously covered states are all listed with the individual state links in this single document. I will be updating it as and when new states get done: All-Links-Collection-Delegate-Mathematics-Series-2016-Democratic-Primary
The results for this series of stories are tracked here. Democratic-Primary-Pledged-Delegates-Results-Tracker-Delegate-Mathematics
Enjoy and hopefully you will have spotted where you might tip the balance personally and like to campaign or make that extra push for your preferred candidate.
Todays shout outs to all Kossacks who will have to start planning the 2017 and 2018 elections for state legislatures and US House/Senate. Get involved this time round and build your network of political allies. Presidential season is a good time for exposure and allies building. Participate in local party organizations. Despite the appearances, elections start a few years in advance. Contest every seat.
Chris Reeves has some excellent advice about running for office here : http://www.dailykos.com/blog/Nuts and Bolts
Meanwhile, here is something from Nepal: http://www.dailykos.com/story/2016/03/01/1493780/-Nepal-March-1st-Somebody-forgot-to-tell-these-people-they-re-not-supposed-to-be-happy