Mormons do not like Donald Trump. They do not like him at all.
For some of the reasons why, see this article.
How much do Mormons dislike Trump?
So much so that if Trump is the Republican nominee, Utah could vote Democratic for President for the first time since 1964.
Utah Poll
A new Utah poll from Deseret News/KSL find:
SALT LAKE CITY — If Donald Trump becomes the Republican Party's nominee, Utahns would vote for a Democrat for president in November for the first time in more than 50 years, according to a new Deseret News/KSL poll.
"I believe Donald Trump could lose Utah. If you lose Utah as a Republican, there is no hope," said former Utah Gov. Mike Leavitt, a top campaign adviser to the GOP's 2012 nominee, Mitt Romney.
The poll found that may well be true. Utah voters said they would reject Trump, the GOP frontrunner, whether former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton or Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders is the Democratic candidate on the general election ballot.
While Clinton was only slightly ahead of Trump — 38 percent to 36 percent — Sanders, a self-declared Democratic socialist, holds a substantial lead — 48 percent to 37 percent over the billionaire businessman and reality TV star among likely Utah voters.
"Wow. Wow. That's surprising," said Chris Karpowitz, co-director of Brigham Young University's Center for the Study of Elections and Democracy. "Any matchup in which Democrats are competitive in the state of Utah is shocking."
If the Republicans nominated Ted Cruz or John Kasich, Utah would be safely Republican:
But with Trump as the nominee, that picture changes drastically. Sanders leads Trump 48-37, while Clinton more narrowly leads by 38-36:
Part of the reason why Utah is not safe Republican with Trump as the GOP nominee is that the most important personal characteristic of a presidential candidate for Utahns is “operates with integrity and honesty.” 58% of voters overall say that, and among Republicans it is even higher — 65%. That is not a characteristic that applies to Trump.
Against either Clinton or against Sanders, Trump receives basically the same level of support. The difference is that Sanders attracts firmer support (37% "definitely Sanders”) and more leaners (11% "probably Sanders”), as compared to Clinton's 31% "Definitely Clinton" and 7% "Probably Clinton."
One thing we should keep in mind is that many of the undecideds may normally vote Republican. At least in a normal year, we might expect many of them to “come home" to the GOP nominee in November. But how much that applies to Trump is unclear. He is not a normal GOP nominee. And at least in the case of Sanders vs. Trump, Democrats are close to 50% in this poll.
Another possibility is that a 3rd party GOP candidate could win Utah, especially if that candidate were Mitt Romney.
But even if Utah is only a tossup or leans Republican, that would be a big change in the electoral map. Utah has 6 electoral votes (as many as Iowa). If Republicans can't count on those electoral votes, it is that much harder for them to get to 270 than it already was. If Trump has to campaign in Utah in the General Election, that is less time that he will spend campaigning elsewhere.
Implications for other states
But the implications of the way Trump has alienated Mormons are not limited to Utah. There are also reasonably large Mormon populations in states that border Utah, like Nevada, Colorado, New Mexico, Arizona, Idaho, and Wyoming. Here’s a map of the Mormon population:
In the case of Nevada, Colorado, and New Mexico, Trump’s weakness with Mormons only makes these states less competitive and more likely to vote Democratic. In 2012, Mitt Romney lost all of those states even while receiving extremely high support from Mormon voters. Without that support for Trump, and with strong Hispanic mobilization against Trump, these western states might not even really be competitive.
Idaho and Wyoming should stay safely GOP, even if Mormons do not vote so heavily for Trump.
Arizona is where things get interesting. We have recently thought of Arizona as a safely Republican state. But the last two GOP nominees have done especially well in Arizona for particular reasons. Romney did especially well because he is Mormon, and therefore he got very high levels of support from Mormon voters. And John McCain did especially well because Arizona is his home state.
But in 2004, Arizona voted for Bush by a bit more (54.7% Bush) than Virginia (53.7% Bush) and a bit less than North Carolina (56.0% Bush).
And in 2000, Arizona voted only 51.0% for Bush (compared to 50.8% in Colorado).
Go back a little bit further to 1992 and 1996, and Bill Clinton came within 2% of winning Arizona in 1992 and won Arizona by 2% in 1996 (albeit with the Perot factor).
So without McCain’s 2008 home state advantage and without Romney’s especially strong Mormon support, we might expect that Arizona would revert to being more competitive anyway — even without the Trump factor.
But with Trump alienating both Hispanics and Mormons, both Arizona and Utah may well be in play.
So if Trump is the GOP nominee, either Clinton or Sanders would be foolish not to at least try to contest Arizona, and not to give a serious look to Utah.
