The purpose of this diary is not to comment on the voter suppression in Arizona. (It is my opinion that this is a serious issue that needs to be addressed, possibly by allowing late voting). I just wanted to point out that in the days since the AZ primary, Sanders has quietly closed the gap.
On the night of the election, news agencies reported that Clinton had won 59.1%-40.9% (ignoring other candidates). Indeed, sources continue to report those numbers. And on the basis of these numbers, sources project that Clinton netted 13 delegates in AZ (44-31).
However, as the provisional ballots have been counted, Sanders has slowly improved his numbers. Sanders has added 26,187 votes — while Clinton has added 24,806. Thus, the new total stands at 57.9%-42.1%. Sanders’ gains have been particularly strong in Maricopa County (i.e. Phoenix) and Pima County (i.e. Tucson). In both of these counties, Sanders has gained 1.4%. He also gained 1.8% in Pinal County, 1.1% in Gila County, 1.5% in Navajo County, 1.1% in Apache County, and 1.0% in Santa Cruz County. It remains to be seen how many more votes will be added.
The reason these small gains are so important is that Hillary Clinton just barely won three delegates (or more accurately, she was barely projected to win those delegates).
- In CD-1 she received 58.73% of the vote as reported on election night — just surpassing the threshold of 58.33% required to win 4-2. (CD-1 contains Apache, Navajo, Graham and Greenlee counties, and parts of Coconino, Gila, Maricopa, Pima, and Pinal)
- In CD-2 she received 57.22% of the vote as reported on election night — just surpassing the threshold of 56.25% required to win 5-3. (CD-2 contains Cochise and Santa Cruz counties, and parts of Pima county)
- In CD-6 she received 60.35% of the vote as reported on election night — just surpassing the threshold of 58.33% required to win 4-2. (CD-6 contains parts of Maricopa county).
It remains to be seen exactly how much Sanders improved in each of these congressional districts (and how much more he will continue to improve), but these three congressional districts include large parts of many of the counties listed above. As such, Sanders is highly likely to gain at least one delegate (a net gain of 2, since she loses one). In fact, he will probably net four delegates — and possibly even six.