Wyoming specific discussion of vote share and mathematics behind impact on delegate allocation of its 14 Delegates. This is part of mathematics of delegate allocation notes in the series of Delegate Mathematics stories. The state-wide Wyoming Democratic Party is affiliated with national Democratic Party and participates in presidential nominee selection process within its umbrella.
Basic Data: Wyoming has 14 delegates available. There is just 1 Congressional Districts. So including state-wide allocations PLEO and at-large delegates, there are 3 different delegate allocation units. Number of delegates available in category are as follows: 8 from CD1; Additionally 2 PLEOs and 4 At-large delegates allocated from state-wide results. Effectively same voting results will be used in three different calculation/categories to allocate delegates.
Caucus Information: Caucus is scheduled for 09 April 2016. Wyoming operates a closed caucus. Uncommitted/Undeclared is a candidate by default. Same day registration and affiliation changes are not available. Caucus is open to registered Democrats only who have registered as democrats at least 15 days before the event (25th March 2016)
Wyoming operates a two-tier caucus process. Delegates are elected first at county levels which elect delegates to party state convention. First stage is county caucus. More information here: http://www.wyodems.org/frequently-asked-questions
Absentee/Surrogate participation is allowed only for specific reasons (Religious Observance, Military Service, Disability, Illness, Work Schedule, Student studying abroad) through a signed surrogate form.
Caucus locations: http://www.wyodems.org/find-my-county-caucus
Voter ID Laws: {Assumption is that almost everyone attending caucus will know a few other people at the caucus to validate their identity. Just in case have a piece of paper or register/confirm you are attending at http://www.wyodems.org/form/-5238963398761904128}
Normal voter Identity requirements at elections: This applies to elections only. First time attendees might want to ensure they have some form of identification, photo is not necessary (turns out literally anything vaguely official/formal with name and address will do, or student Identification from any school/college). On the election days itself same day registration is available. (This does not apply to party run caucus events)
State government information as Secretary of State website about registration and voting: http://soswy.state.wy.us/elections/registeringtovote.aspx and http://soswy.state.wy.us/Elections/Default.aspx
Delegate Allocation Triggers: (See table below). Due to proportional representation formula being used to allocate delegates from various districts, the number of delegates each candidate wins changes at certain specific percentage levels. Crossing/going past the vote percentages at those levels triggers a change in number of delegates awarded. Due to small number of delegates and a single result being used for all allocation, the table below lists all triggers together with corresponding delegate numbers in each category.
| Vote Share% |
15 |
18.8 |
25 |
31.3 |
37.5 |
43.8 |
56.3 |
62.5 |
68.8 |
75 |
81.3 |
85 |
Delegate Allocation Triggers
| District (8Del) |
1 |
2 |
2 |
3 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
5 |
6 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
| At-Large (4del) |
1 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
2 |
2 |
2 |
3 |
3 |
3 |
3 |
4 |
| PLEO (2Del) |
0 |
0 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
2 |
2 |
2 |
For 8 Delegates at Congressional District: First delegate acquired at 15%, second at 18.8% and third at 31.3%. Any vote share between 43.8% and 56.3% will result in a 4-4 delegate split. Crossing a threshold trigger 56.3% results in two delegate advantage 5-3. The next trigger at 68.8% for 6-2 split. Unless there is some major event 68.8% is quite a huge barrier. 7-1 split is just extremely improbable it needs 81.3%. To maintain parity goal will be to achieve 43.8% target to make the districts break even (4-4). To gain an advantage the target would be to score higher than 56.3%.
For 4 Delegates Statewide (At-Large): The first delegate costs only 15%. Second delegate requires 37.5% between 37.5% and 62.5% the allocations split evenly (2-2). Crossing the 62.5% trigger will award delegate advantage here.
For 2 PLEOs: The first is cheap at 25% however the second one costs a whopping 75% votes. Without a total collapse of a campaign most likely split is (1-1).
When we combine the triggers for all allocations, some of the triggers are identical for multiple categories. For the shared triggers, Crossing 15% results in overall 2 delegates, crossing 55% awards all 14 delegates.
Extra County Info For data Buffs: For those interested in county level numbers, again same formulae and similar triggers would apply here too at county caucus levels. For those seriously interested in county numbers. Albany -33, Big Horn -4, Campbell - 18, Carbon 7, Converse 5, Crook 2, Fremont 20, Goshen 5, Hot Springs 2, Johnson 2, Laramie 51, Lincoln 6, Natrona 38, Niobara 2, Park 13, Platte 3, Sheridan 14, Sublette 4, Sweetwater 22, Teton 15, Uinta 9, Washakie 3, Weston2.
The large shares from Natrona, Albany, Sweetwater, Fremont, Campbell,and Sheridan will be dominating factors. Although success at smaller delegate awarding counties are likely to be able to effect a change of a national convention delegate by 1.
Next bit is my personal opinion: Despite its association as Cheney parachute base (and yes Liz Cheney is trying again for Congress), the state might just be ready for a suitable Democratic party to recover some ground. Current Representative Cynthia Lumis is retiring hence Liz Cheney attempting an electoral victory over other Republicans in primary. Last time there was an open seat or a good competition (2008 Repubs 52.6 — Dems 42.8) and (2006 Repub 48.3 — Dems 47.7) the results were promising. Much of that might just have been the superbly competent and charismatic Gary Trauner contesting https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gary_Trauner.
Allowing for Sanders advantages in caucus states and the population make up of state, I expect delegate split of (8-6) comfortably in favour of Sanders. This only needs 56.3% support. Next changes are at 62.5% giving (9-5) and 68.8% giving (10-4) split.
Even with higher end results (10-4) the delegate advantage accumulated is only 6. While every delegate counts, this will not be enough to recover the lost ground. Perhaps New York will be easier on Sanders. (As it happens, New York is the next one I will be writing about)
Enjoy and hopefully you will have spotted where you might tip the balance personally and like to campaign or make that extra push for your preferred candidate.
Previously covered states are all listed with the individual state links in this single document. I will be updating it as and when new states get done: All-Links-Collection-Delegate-Mathematics-Series-2016-Democratic-Primary
Dedicated results tracker that go with these series of stories, which gets updated after each primary/caucus here Democratic-Primary-Pledged-Delegates-Results-Tracker-Delegate-Mathematics
Today's shout outs are to group Badger State Progressive and Kossacks PvtJarHead and GreatLakeSailor and DownstateDemocrat Good luck to you in Wisconsin Wisconsin-Delegate-Mathematics-86-Dels.
