by Tamara Marston
My recap: Disappointing day for Bernie and supporters, but far from devastating, as the Spinners-That-Be will be mightily spinning it.
The reason? This: While in 2008, Obama won only one county of the 64 in New York; this time, Sanders took FIFTY counties to Clinton's twelve — she retained the denser urban centers (which is why she won the state), but lost the voters in almost all the outlying areas of her “home state” to Bernie. (Think about that for a coupla seconds... what such a change reflects about where Clinton’s support base has weakened; that these same folks are now responding more strongly to Bernie’s ideology.)
And, since the delegates are awarded by congressional district, Clinton has netted only 31 delegates more than Bernie with her win, out of the 247 allocated. What looked like a substantial win didn't really amount to a very substantial delegate gain.
So... here’s where we stand. At this point, none of the online and MSM poll-trackers show the actual, current pledged delegate numbers that include all of the info — the redistributions in Nevada and Colorado are often not being included, nor are the Washington State delegates won but not yet awarded until the last stage of caucusing is complete (there’s no concern for Sanders' numbers going down there). They’ve been reporting a wider lead for Clinton than actually existed.
With these missing numbers factored in, Bernie actually went into New York down only 205 pledged delegates. After tonight, he looks to be down no more than 236. (Which is around what most outlets were reporting going into New York.)
There are 1668 pledged delegates still up for grabs.
Sanders continues to narrow the gap in delegate-rich California, a state with semi-open primaries with registration changes allowed til May 23. This is great for Bernie's Independent voters.
(Reminder here: Don’t even bring up superdelegates. Despite the doggedly-manipulative media spin on their graphs and reports, superdelegate votes do not exist yet and won't until after the Convention, after the pledged delegate total is known. Due to their unpledged status and their intended roles, they are irrelevant right now and have no business on any tracking graphs.)
Bernie is still in this game. Sure, odds are against him... but they always have been, and look at all the states he's won, the political awakening he’s inspiring. And how much of even New York State is Bernie-colored tonight...
...And just how very far he’s come in this Amazing Race of his:
Wednesday, Apr 20, 2016 · 12:13:35 PM +00:00 · Magma99
UPDATE: Okay, since quite a few insistently cranky commenters seem to be taking great exception to my use of an actual, real-geography election-site map to show a state with lots of Bernie-voting, green-colored spaces where they insist only trees live… Here is the map from 2008, which shows how all those ‘trees’ voted then.
My only purpose of bringing up the counties (yep, 50 of ‘em!) was solely to compare apples to apples on the maps between the two election years. I think this has significance and very positive things to say about Bernie’s message being embraced by such a large swath of previously solid Clinton territory. I believe this is a legitimate thing to look at, as do most of the folks here… but, y’know… there’re always those…
So, to clarify the legitimacy of using the first map regardless of the varying population density of the areas of the state, and for a simple, direct comparison of the two years, here’s Map 2, courtesy of 2008.