It appears now that Hillary and Trump will be the general election candidates. As far as Trump goes, even if he fell short of the 1,237 delegates, he would still be able to latch onto the 39 Pennsylvania free agents that have promised to vote for him. However, it looks like he won’t need them. The latest analysis from the prognosticators after Tuesday’s Trump win is that he will likely get over that magic number. The GOP establishment's hope for Ted Cruz completely faded away after the election this week, when he lost every single county in every single state that voted. He also lost every demographic group. He is more hated in GOP circles than he is with Democrats.
Kasich, on the other hand, is such a complete failure that he couldn't even win the only two establishment-friendly counties he was counting on.
For Hillary, she is now only 236 delegates away from sealing this thing up for the nomination. She could actually lose every single state from here on out, but as long as she gets a little less than half of the delegates from California, she will reach the magic number of 2,383 delegates.
So now that we all know that it’s Hillary v. Trump, we can focus on the general election. I decided this was a good time to look at the numbers. We already know that Hillary is going to beat the crap out of Trump, but even I am surprised by just how badly Trump is going to lose.
Every national poll shows Hillary handily beating Donald Trump. (One exception: right-wing shill Scott Rasmussen just claimed that Trump and Hillary are tied. How he gets work after his 2012 debacle is beyond me.) Although Hillary will win the popular vote outright, it comes down to the states. And here is where things look really good:
The map above is what the general election looks like right now. Based on recent polls, Utah, Arizona, and Mississippi are officially battle ground states. Freaking Mississippi is where Hillary and Trump are statistically tied. For Utah, one of the reddest states in America, Hillary is in the lead. Yes, Utah!! Utah really hates them some Donald Trump. In Arizona, a state that hasn’t voted Democratic since Hillary’s husband ran, it's not even close. She doesn’t need those states, but it will make the GOP’s humiliation more complete. Even conservative prognosticators, like electionprojection’s Scott Elliot, concedes 358 EVs for Hillary, although he bases some states on generic ballots and past history.
Mind you, there are other states in play I did not even include in the map above. Kentucky, Missouri, Arkansas, and Texas haven’t been polled recently, but even long before the Trump phenomenon, Hillary performed well in hypothetical matchups. Given Texas’ large Mexican-American population, and given that Hillary is seriously looking at San Antonio Mayor Julian Castro to be her veep, Texas might join our side as well.
The GOP underestimates how much Donald Trump is hated. He is going to have the distinction of having the highest unfavorability rating of any major party candidate in history. It is well-deserved, since he has managed to offend just about every voting bloc. (Hispanics, Jewish voters, African-Americans, the disabled, Muslims, women, Apple users...)
Even here in Trump-loving Florida, where Rick Scott and rest of the state GOP has completely embraced the Donald, Trump loses Hispanic voters 69% to 18%. This includes the conservative-leaning Cuban voting bloc. What’s worse is that Hispanic voters are registering in droves to vote against Donald Trump. In one year, the GOP went from discussions on how to break the elusive 40% barrier they need from Latinos to win a national election, to witnessing them becoming a permanent, solid Democratic voting bloc.
The Republican day of reckoning is at hand. There is a huge price to pay for running a Hitler-esque campaign against your fellow Americans fueled by fear and hate. For me, that day can’t come soon enough.