Leading Off:
● WI-01: In the last few days, the odds that Speaker Paul Ryan will lose the August GOP primary in Wisconsin's 1st Congressional District went from slim to slightly-less slim. Last week, Ryan declared that he wasn't ready to support Donald Trump's presidential campaign, though he didn't rule out doing it later. In response, Sarah Palin endorsed Paul Nehlen, whose website identifies him as a "senior vice president of operations for a company that leads the industry in water filtration and disinfection technologies." Nehlen entered the race against Ryan last month, but he looks very Some Dude-esque: The fact that Nehlen's opening web ad is titled "Truth Resurrection" also doesn't inspire confidence. (In fact, Truth Resurrection sounds like it should be a movie featured on Mystery Science Theater 3000.)
Of course, as Dave Brat's shocking primary win against then-Majority Leader Eric Cantor last cycle demonstrated, Some Dudes can win if a high-profile incumbent has alienated enough of the base. It remains to be seen if Ryan's fight with Trump is toxic enough to damage him, or if primary voters just won't care in a few months. Ted Cruz beat Trump 51-32 last month in the 1st, so being a Trump skeptic may not carry the stigma here that it might carry in other parts of the country.
Ryan also has Cantor's defeat as a cautionary tale for what not to do. Cantor ran an ad that, if anything, helped Brat get his name out, but did little else to campaign for renomination. Ryan had $7.68 million in the bank at the end of March, so he can afford to run a world-class campaign if he chooses to. We also don't know if Palin's support with help Nehlen raise a significant amount of money: While Palin still has her fans in the conservative movement, she's not the star that she was in 2008 or 2010. We also need to see if Nehlen will have a clear shot at Ryan. Wisconsin's filing deadline isn't until June 1 and if more speaker-haters decide to run against him, it could split whatever anti-Ryan vote there is.
All in all, it's tough to see the powerful Ryan losing, but after Cantor's defeat and the rise of Trump, it's not something we can completely disregard. After all, we are on uncharted territory: It's been a very long time since the speaker of the House picked such a high-profile fight with his party's presumptive nominee.
Right now, only two little-known Democrats are challenging Ryan. The Romney-Ryan ticket took this suburban Milwaukee seat 52-47 in 2012, and Ryan is likely safe against any Democratic foe this cycle. However, if Nehlen somehow emerges with the GOP nomination, things could get much more interesting.
Senate:
● FL-Sen: The SEIU, which represents 55,000 health care and government workers in Florida (and 2.1 million nationwide) has endorsed Rep. Patrick Murphy in Florida's Democratic Senate primary, citing his support for a $15 minimum wage. The group did not mention Murphy's opponent, Rep. Alan Grayson, who has trailed Murphy considerably in terms of labor support.
● IA-Sen: Despite the DSCC's endorsement of former Lt. Gov. Patty Judge, state Sen. Rob Hogg is still very much hanging around. Judge has greater name recognition than Hogg, but before Judge entered the race, Hogg had time to court his fellow lawmakers, most of whom endorsed him and are still sticking with him. The Des Moines Register's Jason Noble explores this divide and points to a few different factors that explain some of the coolness toward Judge's candidacy.
Aside from the usual local antipathy toward the DC operatives who are pushing Judge's candidacy, Democrats recall a fight over a 2008 bill that would have expanded bargaining rights for government employees. Then-Gov. Chet Culver vetoed the bill, apparently with Judge advising him, and the state's two biggest labor unions sided with Hogg as a consequence. Environmental critics have also attacked Judge for allegedly being too close to the state's big agricultural interests.
But Judge, in one month, raised more than Hogg has all campaign long; indeed, Noble describes Hogg as having a "philosophical aversion to soliciting campaign contributions," which is pretty much disqualifying in a statewide race against a powerful incumbent like GOP Sen. Chuck Grassley. And that financial disparity will make itself felt soon, since Judge says she plans to run TV ads ahead of the June 7 primary. We haven't seen any polls here, but given how little-known Hogg is, it'll be hard for him to pull off a victory once Judge starts advertising.
● LA-Sen: Former Jefferson Parish President John Young, who had been considering a bid for retiring Sen. David Vitter's open seat since December, has finally decided not to run. Several other strong Republican candidates are already in the race, including state Treasurer John Kennedy and Reps. Charles Boustany and John Fleming, which may have deterred Young, who only barely registered in a kitchen-sink poll conducted back in February.
● NH-Sen: There are two weird things about Dartmouth College's new poll of New Hampshire's Senate race. One is the high number of undecideds: GOP Sen. Kelly Ayotte leads Democratic Gov. Maggie Hassan 37-35, with 28 percent of voters not sure. That's certainly not the first time we've seen a poll with huge undecideds, though (especially from a college pollster), and the spread is at least similar to what other firms have found.
But bizarrely, Dartmouth conducted this survey from April 11-15, but it has only now released it for public consumption. Campaigns and super PACs might strategically leak old polls for a variety of reasons, but why would a school sit on data like this? Doing so only increases the possibility that your poll will be completely out-of-date and useless by the time you publish it.
● WI-Sen: Last week, the Koch brothers' Freedom Partners launched a new ad attacking former Democratic Sen. Russ Feingold over his alleged failure to act in the face of lapses at a VA facility in Tomah, Wisconsin. The claim centered around a memorandum penned by a local branch of AFSCME about the problems at Tomah; referring to this report, the spot's narrator, a self-described whistle-blower, says that Feingold "got a memo in 2009 that outlined veteran harm."
Feingold's campaign hotly disputed this, saying there was no evidence that Feingold had ever received the memo in question—indeed, even the memo's author later acknowledged it had never been delivered. Feingold's attorneys fired off a letter to TV stations demanding they take down the ad; at least three complied.
Freedom Partners then rushed out a new version tweaking the language, with the narrator now saying he "found out about multiple memos, outlining veteran harm, marked 'delivered' to Sen. Feingold—and nothing was done." We're in a post-truth world now, where simply writing the phrase "hand delivered" on the top of a memo is now good enough to indict someone for failing to act on its contents, even if that person never saw it.
Gubernatorial:
● AK-Gov: The other day, we mentioned a rumor out of Alaska that former Democratic Sen. Mark Begich might run for governor in 2018—but in order for him to do so, the current incumbent, independent Gov. Bill Walker, would have to eschew a second term, since he won two years go with the support of Democrats. While Begich hasn't yet spoken about his desires, Walker did recently offer a hint about his plans to Bloomberg News' Jennifer Oldham, who just wrote a very good piece on the twin-barreled fiscal woes Alaska faces: Oil prices have plummeted at the same time the state's oil fields are running dry, creating a massive budget hole.
Even if he can fix it, Walker's prospects for remaining in office would be in doubt, since unpopular tax hikes and painful spending cuts are in Alaska's future no matter what transpires. Walker seems to be taking a very high-minded approach to his fate, telling Oldham, "If the price I pay is to end my political future, that's fine. That's a small price to pay to fix Alaska."
House:
● FL-09: The National Education Association, which is the largest teachers union in the nation, has endorsed former Alan Grayson aide Susannah Randolph in her bid to succeed her former boss. Randolph faces businesswoman Dena Minning, who is Grayson's fiancée, state Sen. Darren Soto, and a couple of other minor candidates for the Democratic nomination in this solidly blue seat in the Orlando area.
● KY-01: The U.S. Chamber of Commerce is out with an ad supporting ex-state Agriculture Commissioner James Comer in the GOP primary. Unsurprisingly, the commercial goes after President Obama on coal, and pledges that Comer will fight back. So far, the spot is running for $100,000. The primary for this safely red seat is next week; a recent Comer survey shows him easily defeating both ex-congressional aide Mike Pape and Hickman County Attorney Jason Batts, and neither of his opponents has released any contradictory polls.
● MN-01: While Obama only carried this southern Minnesota seat 50-48, Democratic Rep. Tim Walz looks very safe this cycle. After state Rep. Tony Cornish decided not to run last year, no one serious stepped up in his place. Over the weekend, 2014 nominee Jim Hagedorn won the state party endorsement, and it doesn't look like he'll face any notable opposition in the August primary. Walz beat Hagedorn 54-46 during the 2014 GOP wave, so Hagedorn isn't exactly an intimidating candidate. But Walz has not ruled out a gubernatorial bid in 2018 (Democratic Gov. Mark Dayton says he will not seek a third term), so Team Red may get a good shot at this seat soon enough.
● MN-02: Minnesota Democrats got some great news over the weekend when delegates to the Republican convention in the state's 2nd District endorsed radio host Jason Lewis, whose long history of racist and misogynistic remarks is well-preserved in recordings from his show—and is ready-made for use in Democratic attack ads. Lewis beat tea party activist (that's code for Some Dude) David Gerson after the sixth ballot; Gerson dropped out before a seventh round of balloting and gave his backing to Lewis.
The nomination's not decided yet, though. While party endorsements are accorded a great deal of respect in Minnesota, not everyone abides by them, and two candidates may yet forge on to the August primary. State Sen. John Howe, who was eliminated on the second ballot, says he's weighing his options, while businesswoman Darlene Miller, who has the support of retiring Rep. John Kline but didn't even enter her name into the convention, is apparently carrying on.
With any luck, though, Lewis' strong showing bodes well for his chances in the primary. Democrats have rallied around health care executive Angie Craig, who is already well-poised to pick up this swingy seat in suburban Minneapolis, but if she gets to face a Trumpian shock jock like Lewis, her odds of victory will only increase. Daily Kos Elections currently rates this race a Tossup.
● VA-02: Rep. Randy Forbes is up with his first TV spot ahead of the June 14 GOP primary. Forbes highlights his father's service during World War II, with the congressman telling the audience, "It took 6,000 American ships to win that war." Forbes is then shown standing in front of a ship, and he claims that under Obama, "our navy has been cut to just 272 ships," before pledging to change that. The narrator lays out "The Randy Forbes plan," and what a ground-breaking proposal it is: "Build our navy back to 350 ships, defeat ISIS, deter our enemies." The U.S. Navy is a huge presence in this Hampton Roads seat, so this is a good theme to run on. The campaign only says the spot is running for "six-figures," though that's a whole lot more than Forbes' primary opponent, state Del. Scott Taylor, had in the bank at the end of March.
Legislative:
● Special Elections: Johnny Longtorso gives us our rundown:
Massachusetts Senate, Plymouth and Norfolk: This is an open Republican seat located in the South Shore. The candidates are Democrat Joan Meschino, a former Hull selectman, and Republican Patrick O'Connor, who is the president of the Weymouth Town Council. At 49.5 Obama-49.3 Romney, this is the second-most Republican Senate district in Massachusetts.
Mayoral:
● Sacramento, CA Mayor: The non-partisan primary to succeed Mayor Kevin Johnson is a month away, and one candidate has quickly established a huge financial edge. Darrell Steinberg, the former Democratic leader of the state Senate, transferred $1.4 million from a committee he'd established for a possible lieutenant governor bid. However, Steinberg also outraised Councilwoman Angelique Ashby $652,000 to $333,000 from October to April. A third candidate, boxing champion Tony Lopez, is also in, but he doesn't have many resources. If no one takes a majority June 7, the top two contenders will face off in November.
Grab Bag:
● Deaths: David Hall, an Oklahoma Democrat who served in the governor's mansion for four years and in Federal Correctional Institution, Tucson for 19 months, died Friday at the age of 85. As Tulsa County attorney, Hall took a close third place in the 1966 gubernatorial primary. Four years later, Hall unseated Republican incumbent Dewey Bartlett by 2,181 votes.
Hall pushed through tax increases to help fund infrastructure projects and education, a move that angered plenty of voters. Hall's tenure was also overshadowed by bribery and extortion accusations. Hall only took 27 percent in the 1974 primary (David Boren ended up winning the Democratic nomination and becoming governor), and he was indicted three days after leaving office. Hall was found guilty of being part of a plan to steer retirement funds to an investment fund. Hall maintained his innocence, but he served 19 months of his three-year prison sentence. After his release, Hall moved to Southern California and wrote a book about his experience.
● Nebraska and West Virginia: Tuesday brings us a small but important primary night in two states. Over in Nebraska's 2nd Congressional District, national Democrats are spending big to try and help a weak Republican take the nomination to face freshman Democrat Rep. Brad Ashford. In the Mountain State, three Democrats are squaring off; the winner will face Republican state Senate President Bill Cole. Jeff Singer runs through both races, as well as the Democratic primary to face West Virginia Rep. Alex Mooney, in our primary preview.
Polls close in West Virginia at 7:30 PM ET and at 9 PM ET in Nebraska. As always, we'll be liveblogging all the results at Daily Kos Elections; we'll also be live tweeting.
● UK Elections: On Thursday, voters in the United Kingdom went to the polls for a series of local elections. The most significant result was in London, where Sadiq Khan not only won the mayor's office back for the opposition Labour Party, he also became the first Muslim mayor of a major Western capital. However, the ruling Conservative Party also held its ground elsewhere, and smaller parties also got some wins and losses. In a new post, David Beard runs down the results from across the UK and some potential long-term implications.
The Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir and Jeff Singer, with additional contributions from David Jarman, Steve Singiser, Daniel Donner, and Stephen Wolf.
