Since Donald Trump became the presumptive Republican nominee, many progressives have gravitated towards two poles: head-shaking dismissal of Mr. Trump’s chances of ever becoming President and vigorous hand-wringing about the prospect of a potential tyrant taking the White House.
Now, with the Republican National Convention upon us and Mr. Trump’s formal anointment imminent, progressives need to recognize that neither position is helpful. Fortunately, there’s a third way: recognizing the real (though not overwhelming) probability of a Trump presidency and its danger, and realizing that we all can, and must, be part of ensuring that it does not come to pass.
First, on probability: it’s true that, judging from typical statistical models that analysts use to predict the outcomes of US elections, Donald Trump is not the favorite to win the presidency. The probability of his victory is lower, for instance, than that of recent candidates John McCain (2008) or Mitt Romney (2012) because he has alienated a tremendous number of women, Latinos, immigrants, people of color, and more, who will be critical to the roughly half-dozen swing states that will decide the election.
But a low probability does not mean a probability of zero. Indeed, there is a real chance, which Five Thirty Eight has estimated at between 20 and 30 percent in recent days, of a Trump victory. And, of course, given the unprecedented nature of this year’s campaign, it’s entirely possible that models created for prior elections will not prove as accurate as they have in the past, as occurred with pollsters like Five Thirty Eight in the primaries. In short, progressives should not be dismissive of Mr. Trump’s chances.
This is all the more the case because, while Trump’s chances of winning are lower than that of other recent Republican candidates, his assuming the presidency could bring truly calamitous consequences—the likes of which no recent contender could match.
Put differently, it’s not just probability that should dictate how concerned we are of a Republican presidential victory: it’s that probability multiplied by the degree of calamity if such a result were to occur. Given the explicitly racist, anti-immigrant, misogynistic, authoritarian, and war-mongering campaign that Mr. Trump has run, it’s clear that the degree of calamity is high, indeed—high enough to justify substantial fear of his victory.
Given this real fear, how should progressives respond?
The answer was given to us by labor activist and songwriter Joe Hill a century ago: don’t mourn, organize.
Hand-wringing and indignant social media posts alone will do our movement little good, particularly when we’ve seen that this particular candidate is uniquely able to speak offensively and falsely without substantial repercussions. As progressives, we have to do what we’re good at—taking action about the things in which we believe.
Progressives have every right to be scared and angry. But we need to be engaged and strategic.
A growing body of research, pioneered by academics like Don Green and Alan Gerber, shows that there is one clear best way to win elections: knocking on doors and making phone calls to voters.
It’s how President Obama won in 2008 and 2012, and it’s how progressives will be able to defeat Mr. Trump.
Community groups, advocacy organizations, and local progressive clubs already have plans to register and mobilize working-class voters, immigrant voters, and voters of color this year.
But, to have the impact our movement needs, we need all hands on deck.
So, if you’re scared of a Trump victory, guess what: you should be. But don’t let it paralyze you. Instead, recognize that we have four months to go before Election Day. That’s four months of evenings and weekends when you can be volunteering with your local political club or community organization to register voters or get out the vote (knock on their doors or call them to motivate them to vote), four months when you can talk to voters in Florida or Ohio or Colorado or Pennsylvania (and plan a trip there if you don’t live nearby), and four months to hold a small fundraiser with some friends to help support others’ volunteer efforts.
And, whether you’re a passionate Hillary Clinton supporter or not, grassroots efforts to mobilize voters that center on issues progressives care about, like immigration reform, raising the minimum wage, ending police brutality, and tackling economic and political inequality will make Hillary a better candidate who is more responsive to working-class communities across this nation.
The stakes are simply too high to sit on the sidelines this summer. The odds are not with Donald Trump, but his victory would be an utter catastrophe for the American political system. It’s time to get out the vote.
-Daniel Altschuler is the Managing Director of Make the Road Action, an immigrant advocacy organization. Follow their work: @altochulo @MaketheRoadAct
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