Democrat Paul Penzone previously released a very surprising poll showing him with a lead on Maricopa County's notorious Sheriff Joe Arpaio, and now a new survey from a Republican firm has confirmed those findings. Arizona-based pollster Lincoln Strategy Group, which says it has no involvement in the race, puts Penzone ahead 45-42, very similar to the 48-44 margin Penzone found in his own internal last month. Lincoln also has Donald Trump beating Hillary Clinton 41-32 in the county, which is even more favorable to the GOP's presidential nominee than Penzone's poll.
Lincoln's managing director, Nathan Sproul, explained that he tested the race because he was "curious" to know whether Penzone's numbers were legit. Concluded Sproul, "I feel very confident their internal poll was accurate." And yet once again, Arpaio's camp only offered bluster in response. A spokesman decried "automated polls" and declared, "Clearly someone has an agenda here." That's a strange accusation to lob against a Republican pollster, but it's still something of a walk-back from Arpaio's previous claim that Penzone's data was "completely fabricated."
Arpaio's campaign also swore in June that its internal polls "tell a much, much different story," but then as now, it still hasn't shared any results. That dog's failure to bark is deafening. A Penzone victory would still be a major upset, given Arpaio’s status as a decades-long fixture in Arizona law enforcement. But right now, he’s looking very vulnerable indeed.