Are you waiting to see how much of a bounce Trump gets from the GOP convention? Ain’t gonna happen! In fact, it’s not even going to be the proverbial dead cat bounce. With the combination of Melania’s plagiarized speech, Cruz’s underlining the intraparty division, the Riefenstahlesque Trump of the Will speech, and, perhaps most significant, Trump’s anti-NATO statements to the NY Times, Trump should take a photograph of his polls—they’ll never look this good again.
After this past week, Trump’s support will splat on the ground and start digging like a live mole.
Why should you believe me? Because it’s a lie when pundits say: “No one could have predicted that Trump would get the Republican nomination!” How do I know? Because I predicted it!
I’m 67 years old and I’ve been a committed Democrat since November 1956. That was when I listened from the West Indies on my father’s shortwave radio and rooted for underdog Adlai Stevenson as the vote count showed him being swept away by someone named “Ike”. So I’ve observed lots of water go under the political bridge, Miss Ilsa, and what has happened over the past fifteen months was always in the tea leaves.
The fault lines within the GOP were formed back when Ronald Reagan made his speech in Philadelphia, Mississippi, and lured the “Wallace Democrats” into becoming the “Reagan Democrats”. That unholy coalition of corporate and racist elements was showing clear signs of splitting apart more than four years ago. When Trump entered the race last June, the fracking juice was injected between the rocks. Within two weeks, I was predicting Trump’s nomination.
Don’t believe me? Well, it took me a while to put my thoughts into print. In this DK blog titled “Yes, the GOP is Crazy – but that Does NOT mean Unpredictable!” from Nov 12 of last year, I wrote:
Here are my predictions for the future:
Ever since the leadup to the 2012 election, I have been predicting that 2016 would be the year (like 1912) of the Republican Party's Great Schism. Via the above process of elimination, I believe that Trump will get the nomination…
As Carson (slowly!) implodes, these folks will move toward Trump and perhaps Huckabee (but Huck will never have enough overall support). Rubio will get the establishment support but not the base because of being perceived as “soft on immigration”, and Cruz will get some of the base but none of the establishment. The Donald Steamroller will be very hard to stop. And a “brokered convention” that deprives Donald of the nomination would cause one version of the Great Schism.
But I don’t think it will be a brokered convention. I believe that the big winner-take-all states like Florida will be enough to put Trump over the top. And in this scenario, knowing that Trump is unelectable and will do great damage downticket, it will be the GOP establishment that will ultimately “bolt”…
To paraphrase Sherlock Holmes: “When you have eliminated all those candidates who are impossible, then whatever remains, however improbable, must be the truth.” That leaves one:
Not many, even that late in the game and here on Daily Kos, were willing to believe me. Check out the handful of comments that followed the blog, and the poll: 28% of those who voted thought Trump would get the nomination.
But with the Bushes, Romney, McCain and Graham all “bolting” and Cruz doing his best kamikaze imitation, I think I can claim that what has happened with Trump COULD have been predicted. As I wrote:
“There are certain things about the Republican electorate that such pundits are simply not allowed to recognize. These they have had to excise from their calculations when pontificating.”
And now the GOP will continue its explosion. Clinton will win by more than 10% of the popular vote, the Democrats will take back the Senate, and if the GOP hangs onto the House, it will be by less than ten members.
It’s going to be a fun fall—in all senses of the word!—for that mole!
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