We've just published this week's installment of our House ad reservations chart, which tracks TV and radio bookings by the four biggest outside groups (the DCCC, House Majority PAC, NRCC, and Congressional Leadership Fund) involved in House races. You'll see that we've now added a second set of columns to the right that show you the changes from the previous week, and there are a number worth taking note of. One small note: Our data lags slightly, so there've been some further developments that have taken place since the numbers in our chart were compiled, which we'll note below.
The biggest new move for Democrats comes in NJ-05, where the DCCC has thrown down a cool million bucks to support Democrat Josh Gottheimer in his bid to unseat Republican Rep. Scott Garrett, a race HMP has long been a believer in. CLF matched just $350,000 for the GOP. The D-Trip also added $569,000 for the three-way battle in NY-22, and HMP has added another $483,000 there as well. For its part, the NRCC tacked on another $457,000.
There were also two races in California where, for the first time, the DCCC put up funds. These came in CA-25 and CA-49, two tougher potential pickups, where the committee and each campaign together spent $85,000 and $153,000 respectively. We don’t know how much came from the DCCC, but whatever the exact split, the total amount was small. Still, these both bear watching to see if more outside money comes in later.
On the flipside, the DCCC reduced its overall Twin Cities reservation by about $600,000. It's possible this represents a pullback from MN-03: HMP abandoned this race the other day (something not yet reflected on our chart), though the D-Trip said it was still a believer. It could also reflect growing confidence in MN-02, a sentiment reportedly expressed by HMP. It's hard to say, though, since this money could be used for either district, as well as MN-08. The NRCC, meanwhile, sliced its Minneapolis/St. Paul reservations by about $450,000, but CLF added nearly $1 million, so that's a net increase of approximately $500,000 for the GOP.
The DCCC also shrank its reservations in Las Vegas, which covers both NV-03 and NV-04 by about $800,000, while the NRCC cut theirs by around $500,000. CLF, however, added $220,000. It's not clear why any of these moves were made. Also interesting is a $288,000 DCCC reduction in AZ-01, though they still have $1.5 million reserved. However, Republicans have yet to book any time at all here. It may just be that they have no faith in their badly damaged candidate, Paul Babeu, who was shown trailing 45-38 in a poll put out by Democrat Tom O'Halleran just the other day.
HMP also drew down its presence in NH-01 by a sizable $700,000. Again, we don't know why, but subsequent to our chart's compilation, the Hotline reported that the NRCC was also cutting $500,000. Despite the reductions, both sides have around $3 million booked here apiece, and HMP recently released a poll finding Democrat Carol Shea-Porter up 44-34, so it's doubtful they've suddenly experienced a loss of faith.
The only other NRCC move that really stands out is a $500,000 addition in IL-10, while at the same time, the DCCC cut about $540,000. But according to Roll Call (which says the reduction was $800,000—this kind of data's always a moving target), the D-Trip is simply moving that money from its independent expenditure arm to its "coordinated" side, which, as the name implies, is permitted to work directly with Democrat Brad Schneider. Normally, coordinated expenditures are restricted to just $48,000 per cycle, but Schneider and the DCCC are making use of so-called "hybrid" ads, which attack both Bob Dold! and "the Republicans" as a way to get around normal limits.
Finally, the CLF has been quite busy, piling on an addition $3.8 million, mostly in existing reservations. (Overall, the other three groups saw small net reductions of less than $1 million each.) Their largest single-district add-on comes in FL-18, where Democrats have self-funder Randy Perkins running. They've also put money into NY-01 for the first time, place a $500,000 reservation there, and they've added another $481,000 in NY-19. And according to Politico, CLF is also booking $500,000 in ME-02, though that one's not yet reflected on our chart.
There are also some additional developments that also haven't made it into our chart yet. Republican operatives cited by the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel say that the DCCC has cancelled a week's worth of airtime valued at $240,000 on behalf of Democrat Tom Nelson in WI-08, where he faces Republican Mike Gallagher. Last month, the GOP released a poll showing Nelson badly trailing; not only have Democrats not released any better data, the Cook Political Report's Dave Wasserman writes that unseen Democratic polls are apparently saying similar things. The D-Trip would only say that "[a]d reservations are changing every week." That they are!
And lastly, it appears that GOP Rep. David Jolly might finally be getting some assistance down in FL-13. The NRCC openly despises Jolly and hasn't stepped in to help him in his difficult race against Democrat Charlie Crist, but the deep-pocketed U.S. Chamber of Commerce just endorsed the congressman, and they're very likely to actually spend money here. In addition, a total mystery super PAC called People for Pinellas County recently booked about $240,000 in ad time here on Jolly's behalf, but good luck Googling them.
What's particularly concerning is that the DCCC is also adding $460,000 here, per Politico, on top of the $1.5 million already reserved by HMP. After this district was made considerably bluer in redistricting, Crist looked like a strong bet to win, and most polls have shown him comfortably leading. But this isn't the kind of move you make if you're feel a race is a lock. Lots of folks have suggested "Crist fatigue" might be a factor, but there's been little hard data to back up that claim. However, it could very well be real.
