All the attention on Russia by Rump and the Hemorrhoids is really puzzling from the point of view of US strategic interests. Clearly the Obama Administration didn’t feel there was much to do with Russia other than try to contain its bad behaviors to within Putin’s own currently existing sphere.
So why is Russia so important to Rump?
Russia is the 12th largest economy in the world. It produces nothing this country needs. Its only economic assets are its oil and gas that are sold mainly into Europe. That 12th place ranking puts Russia in the same neighborhood as Australia and Korea, a bit more than half the size of France’s economy and less than 10% the size of China’s. The oil and gas asset base of Russia give it 6th rank in GDP Purchasing Power, but that fluctuates with oil and gas prices, and will likely become less important as the world shifts away from fossil fuels.
Russia’s economy contracted by 3.7% from 2014 to 2015 and continued to get smaller in 2016 (numbers not in yet). This puts Russia in a layer with Brazil and Belarus for reverse economic growth, and trails large economies like China’s 6.9% growth, India’s 7.3% growth, the US at 2.4% (and accelerating), and peer economies in size such as Mexico at 2.4%, Australia at 2.5% and Canada at 1.2%.
Per capita GDP ranking for Russia shows the poverty suffered by most of its population at 71st in the world with $8838 per person only slightly higher than China(!) at 75th with $8261 per person, less than half of troubled #42 Greece at $18,078 and about on par with #72 Mexico at $8699, the non-threatening neighbor whom Rump treats like an enemy.
Russia does have the world’s second most powerful military, but is spending a little more than 1/3 the amount China is and has less capacity than China to sustain high levels of spending with its weak economy. Russia’s ability to project conventional military power even in its own backyard is limited by its economic weakness — it cannot sustain deployments and cannot maintain the equipment it has. Russia is a nuclear power, but absent some wild changes in policy and circumstance that power is either irrelevant or means armageddon, without much in between.
Russia’s international allies and clients amount to Serbia and Syria, with Turkey possibly edging that way. A long-time mutual understanding with India is weakening as that country aligns with the prosperous West and remains hostile with China. China and Russia are friendly on military trade terms, but China’s other interests are much better served by relations with the West. Former Warsaw Pact nations are aligned closer with the West, a source of friction for Russia. Former members of the USSR other than Belarus have tense relations with Russia. Russia has had long-time relations with Iran, but even that country’s longer term interests are with the West rather than Russia. Russia is not a lynchpin to any world networks of allies.
Russia has a highly active intelligence capability and cyberwarfare capability, which we have seen exercised crucially and against US interests.
So. The punchline.
Why is Russia so important to Rump when it is not all that important to US interests? Why buddy-buddy with Putin and the short finger to China? Is there any way that can be consistent with the interests of the United States?
The answer for Rump has been pretty obvious through implication despite Rump’s ability so far to shield himself from transparency. He has been the beneficiary of Russian oligarch and autocrat largesse on many fronts. Other members of his prospective administration have more personal interests, such as Rex Tillerson’s $500 billion oil and gas interests and the golden shower that goes with that much money.
The investigations to come will scrape away some of the orange paint shielding Rump, and with that transparency expose him and the rest of the Hemorrhoids as traitors. With luck and some good political communications work, much of the Republican Party will be smeared with the same brush that they used to paint themselves orange supporting Rump. Perhaps that raw lust for power will finally bring their downfall.
God willing.
Comments are closed on this story.