I’ve recently updated my estimates of how many people are at risk of losing their healthcare coverage in the event of a full repeal of the Affordable Care Act with immediate effect.
The full details (including methodology and tables for all 43 states to date) can be found over at ACA Signups, but here’s the main updates:
- I’ve added Colorado, Connecticut and Minnesota
- By request, I’ve added a new column to all states: The total number of people who selected Qualified Health Plans from the various ACA exchanges in each Congressional District. This number will always always somewhat higher than the “High Subsidy Exchange Enrollees” column, due to the following formula:
(Total Enrollees as of 1/31/17) x (% actually enrolled in effectuated policies) x (% who receive federal tax credits) x (% who receive substantial tax credits) = High Subsidy Exchange Enrollees.
Roughly 10% of those who select policies never end up paying even the first monthly premium, and roughly 10% of those who receive tax credits only receive nominal assistance. The percent who receive any subsidies ranges widely from state to state (and even somewhat from district to district), but it hovers around 85% nationally.
So, in a district with 20,000 total QHP selections of which 85% receive tax credits, my estimate would be:
20,000 x 0.9 x 0.85 x 0.9 = 13,770 high-subsidy exchange enrollees who would likely lose their coverage post-repeal, or around 69% of the total.
Anyway, I’ve posted the tables for the three newcomers below; the other 40 can be found here. Please feel free to share widely (but try to include the ACA Signups source link; not only for the credit but also so there’s a methodology reference).
It takes an awful lot of time and effort to maintain the ACA Signups website. If anyone’s in a position to help support the ACA Signups project, it would be tremendously appreciated.