The Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir, Jeff Singer, Stephen Wolf, and Carolyn Fiddler, with additional contributions from David Jarman, Steve Singiser, Daniel Donner, James Lambert, David Beard, and Arjun Jaikumar.
Leading Off
● CA-Sen: California state Senate President Pro Tem Kevin de León announced on Sunday that he would challenge California Sen. Dianne Feinstein, a fellow Democrat, in next year’s top-two primary.
De León, who also considered running for governor, did not mention Feinstein in his announcement, but argued that the Golden State "deserves a senator that will not just fully resist the Trump presidency, but also understands the issues that most Californians face every day: That’s fighting for Medicare for All. That’s fighting for our Dreamers. That’s fighting against climate change." That's a not-so-subtle jab at Feinstein, who has always had an uneasy relationship with state progressive activists, and made things worse in August when she called for "patience" for Trump, adding that, "The question is whether he can learn and change. If so, I believe he can be a good president." However, it remains to be seen how many California Democrats actually want to replace their longtime senator.
Campaign Action
De León, who represents part of the city of Los Angeles in the state Senate, is well-connected, and he could be able to raise the type of cash necessary to compete in this ultra-expensive state. But as we've written before, California's top-two primary system adds some hurdles to his already tough task. In the Golden State, all candidates run on one primary ballot, and the top two vote-getters, regardless of party, advance to the general election. It's extremely unlikely that Feinstein, who has the support of some influential California Democrats like Sen. Kamala Harris and Los Angeles Mayor Eric Garcetti, will take third place or worse. This means that anyone hoping to meet her in the general election will need to brush past all her other rivals. That's where things start to get complicated.
California is a very blue state, but if Republicans consolidate behind one candidate, that person could take enough support to lock a non-Feinstein Democrat out of the general election. Team Red is already wary about not having a candidate in the general election for governor, so they have extra incentive to try to get someone through the top-two Senate primary. If Republicans don't have any candidates in the general election for governor or Senate, it could keep conservatives from showing up in November in key House races that actually are winnable for Republicans.
If too many Democrats run for the Senate, that could split the anti-Feinstein vote too much to allow any Democrat but the incumbent to advance. Billionaire activist Tom Steyer and wealthy tech entrepreneur Joseph Sanberg have both expressed interest, though it's unclear what they'll do now that de León has made the first move. However, one notable Democrat won't be running after all. While Rep. Eric Swalwell didn't rule out a bid last week, he announced on Friday that he was supporting Feinstein.
If de León or another Democrat actually makes it to a general election with Feinstein, they'll also need a lot to go right to beat her. The incumbent may be able to court Republicans and independents that view her as the more conservative option. However, it's possible that GOP voters who have long disliked Feinstein will back a less-familiar Democratic challenger, even one running to her left.
As we've noted before, California hosted an all-Democratic Senate race in 2016, where Rep. Loretta Sanchez tried to appeal to Republicans. Sanchez ended up losing to now-Sen. Harris 62-38, and Harris even carried most of California's more conservative counties despite being the more liberal choice. Feinstein would be able to count on far more money and name recognition than Sanchez had, but 2016 is a good reminder that Republican voters may not just flock to the more centrist contender.
3Q 2017 Fundraising
We're collecting the Senate reports in our quarterly fundraising roundup chart, which we'll update continuously. We'll have a House fundraising chart after the Oct. 15 reporting deadline.
● AZ-Sen: Kyrsten Sinema (D): $1.1 million raised, $4.2 million cash-on-hand
● IN-Sen: Joe Donnelly (D-inc): $1.3 million raised, $4.3 million cash on-hand; Luke Messer (R): $735,000 raised, $2.4 million cash-on-hand
● MA-Sen: Elizabeth Warren (D-inc): $3 million raised, $12.8 million cash-on-hand
● MI-Sen: Debbie Stabenow (D-inc): $1.7 million raised, $6.9 million cash-on-hand
● MO-Sen: Josh Hawley (R): $821,000 raised, $782,000 cash-on-hand
● ND-Sen: Heidi Heitkamp (D-inc): $1 million raised, $3.8 million cash-on-hand
● CO-Gov: Donna Lynne (D): $380,000 raised, $320,000 cash-on-hand
● IL-Gov: Daniel Biss (D): $825,000 raised, $2.6 million cash-on-hand
● MA-Gov: Charlie Baker (R-inc): $6.5 million cash-on-hand; Jay Gonzalez (D): $50,000 cash-on-hand; Setti Warren (D); $36,000 cash-on-hand
● NJ-Gov: Phil Murphy (D): $5.4 million cash-on-hand; Kim Guadagno (R): $966,000 cash-on-hand
Senate
● AZ-Sen: End Citizens United announced their backing of Democratic Rep. Kyrsten Sinema for next year's Senate election in Arizona, adding to her support from the DSCC and other key Democratic-affiliated outside groups such as EMILY's List. Sinema thus far faces no notable opponent in the Democratic primary.
● TN-Sen: The Club for Growth, a hardline anti-tax group, gave its endorsement to Rep. Marsha Blackburn on Friday in the Republican primary for Tennessee's open Senate seat. Although the Club has long backed insurgent extremist candidates against more party establishment-backed rivals, Blackburn has maintained relatively good relations with national GOP leadership.
So far, her only notable primary foe is Andy Ogles, who leads the state chapter of the Koch-affiliated Americans for Prosperity, but other candidates may end up running after GOP Sen. Bob Corker decided to call it quits next year. Nevertheless, this endorsement is yet another one of the advantages Blackburn starts with that makes her a formidable contender for the nomination.
Gubernatorial
● ME-Gov, ME-Sen: Longtime Maine Sen. Susan Collins, a Republican, had been considering for months whether to run for governor next year to succeed fellow Republican Paul LePage, and the popular senator's indecision had weighed heavily on the plans of candidates from both parties. On Friday, Collins finally declared that she will ultimately remain in the Senate and stay out of the governor's race, likely setting off a chain reaction as the state's political juggernaut not running creates significant space for lesser-known candidates. Collins isn’t up for re-election until 2020, so running for governor would have been a free shot for her.
Collins has long been overwhelmingly popular amongst the broader electorate and would have been an extremely tough general election foe for Democrats to face. However, her highly visible opposition to Trumpcare may have seriously damaged her standing with her own party had she chosen to run in the closed primary, and a PPP poll from back in August showed her losing a hypothetical primary by 44-33 to former state health commissioner Mary Mayhew, who is already running. Collins may have ultimately felt that a tough primary simply wasn't worth it.
Without Collins, the Republican field is consequently wide open. In addition to Mayhew, state Senate Majority Leader Garrett Mason and state House Minority Leader Ken Fredette are also running in the Republican primary, but several other candidates could also jump in now.
Collins' decision to stay out of this contest will consequently make Maine one of the top pick-up opportunities for Democrats next year in this blue-leaning yet very swingy state. Team Blue already has a crowded primary that includes state Attorney General Janet Mills, former state House Speaker Mark Eves, former state Sen. James Boyle, businessman Adam Cote, and prominent activist Betsy Sweet. State Sen. Mark Dion, who is a former sheriff for Cumberland County, also jumped into the race in recent days.
Looming over next year's primary is Maine's new instant-runoff voting system, which voters passed in a 2016 ballot initiative. Although a non-binding state Supreme Court ruling indicated this past spring that the law may ultimately be unconstitutional for state-level general elections, the court's advisory opinion likely won't affect state-level primaries (and federal races). While the state legislature may yet still try to rectify the situation to avoid near-certain lawsuits and legal chaos, for now the new electoral system could completely upend the dynamics of the primary race for both parties.
● NJ-Gov: Stockton University's first poll of next month's gubernatorial election in New Jersey is right in line with all the other surveys we've seen. Stockton finds Democrat Phil Murphy with a strong 51-33 lead over Republican Kim Guadagno, who not only has never led in a single poll but hasn't even come close—and her racist gutter-trash campaign doesn't appear to be helping her either, thank the maker. It's a remarkable turnaround from just four years ago, when Chris Christie was untouchable in his bid for re-election. Of course, it's the brutally unpopular Christie himself who's played a hefty role in the trajectory of the race to succeed him.
House
● MA-03: Consultant Lori Trahan, who was once chief of staff for former Rep. Marty Meehan, formally joined the Democratic primary for Massachusetts' open 3rd Congressional District on Thursday and said she'd already raised $242,000 in the final two weeks of September. (Meehan, Trahan's old boss, represented the predecessor version of this district until he resigned in 2007.) A large, well-funded, and very diverse group of Democrats has converged on this seat, which Hillary Clinton won 58-35 but in which Republicans running further down ballot have done much better.
● ME-02: Surveying on behalf of an unnamed group, the Democratic pollster Global Strategy Group ventured into northern Maine's rural 2nd Congressional District and found Republican Rep. Bruce Poliquin leading Democrat Lucas St. Clair by just 44-41. St. Clair is a wealthy businessman who joined the race earlier this month, but this survey suggests that he already starts out with significant name recognition, likely stemming from his locally prominent success in securing the conservation of former timberland in the North Woods in order to become a federally recognized national monument.
Maine's 2nd District is one of the most heavily white working-class districts in the country, and it accordingly lurched to the right from 53-44 Obama to 51-41 Trump last year as Poliquin was winning by a similar margin over a touted Democratic foe. However, Democrats likely need to put districts into play with a recent history of backing Democrats, such as this one, if they hope to win the House next year. Polls like this suggest it could be a battleground if Trump's popularity ends up costing down-ballot Republicans dearly next year.
Nevertheless, St. Clair isn't the only Democrat running, as he faces a primary field that includes state Rep. Jared Golden and businessman Jonathan Fulford, who narrowly lost tough state Senate races in 2014 and 2016. GSG also tested the primary and found St. Clair out with a huge 40 percent plurality while Golden took just 8 percent and Fulford 5 percent. That lead corresponds closely with the respective candidates' name recognition, meaning St. Clair's nomination is by no means guaranteed if or when his opponents get their names out. GSG did not release general election matchups between Poliquin and the other Democratic candidates if they tested them.
● MN-01: On Friday, Democratic activist Regina Mustafa announced that she would suspend her campaign for Minnesota's open 1st Congressional District. There's still a large group of Democrats running here, with former Defense Department official and Iraq vet Dan Feehan probably the most prominent among them. However, we'll have a better sense of where all the candidates stand in relation to one another after third quarter fundraising reports are due on Oct. 15.
● MN-02: EMILY's List is once again endorsing former healthcare executive Angie Craig as she seeks a rematch with GOP Rep. Jason Lewis in the Minneapolis suburbs. EMILY also backed Craig last year, when she lost to Lewis 47-45 for what was then an open seat.
● MT-AL: Democratic state Rep. Tom Woods, who is a member of his party's leadership in the legislature, announced on Thursday that he'd run against Republican Rep. Greg Gianforte, who took office after winning a special election earlier this year (and whose mugshot was finally released the other day). Woods, who emphasized a Bernie Sanders-esque platform of Medicare-for-all and free college in his kickoff, joins two other Democrats in the primary, former nonprofit director Grant Kier and attorney John Heenan. Musician Rob Quist, who lost to Gianforte in the special, is also considering a rematch.
Mayoral
● New Orleans, LA Mayor: New Orleans held its jungle primary Saturday to replace termed-out Mayor Mitch Landrieu, and City Councilor LaToya Cantrell and ex-Judge Desiree Charbonnet will face off in the Nov. 18 runoff. Cantrell led the field with 39 percent of the vote, while Charbonnet beat ex-Judge Michael Bagneris, who unsuccessfully challenged Landrieu in 2014, 30-19 for the other runoff spot. Either Cantrell or Charbonnet would be New Orleans' first female mayor, as well as the first African-American woman to lead the city. Both finalists, like almost every notable political figure in the Crescent City, are also Democrats.
Charbonnet decisively outspent both Bagneris and especially Cantrell, and she had the support of Rep. Cedric Richmond, who represents most of New Orleans in the House. But unlike her main rivals, Charbonnet was attacked on TV by two different groups. One super PAC, called Not For Sale NOLA, raised $190,000 from prominent local business people. Bombastic reality TV host Sidney Torres IV, who stars in a reality TV show that features him as a real estate investor/guru, also went after Charbonnet after she decided to cancel on a debate he was hosting, and his own group has also been airing ads against her. We'll see if those dynamics continue to play out in the runoff.
Charbonnet and Cantrell also have very different backgrounds. Charbonnet hails from a well-connected political family that has lived in New Orleans for centuries, and also operates the prominent Charbonnet Funeral Home in the Tremé neighborhood. By contrast, Cantrell is originally from Los Angeles and moved to New Orleans for college. Cantrell rose to prominence for her work helping her neighborhood recover from Hurricane Katrina, and she won elected office in 2012 by beating a city council candidate backed by Landrieu and Richmond.
Both women have earned national media attention before their mayoral campaigns. Charbonnet was the subject of a 2016 piece in The Atlantic for her efforts on the bench to steer repeat offenders in drug and prostitution cases, as well as offenders with mental illnesses, towards treatment programs rather than sending them back into the criminal justice system. In 2015, Cantrell was the subject of an in-depth Politico Magazine profile titled "LaToya Cantrell, Madame Mayor?" that highlighted her post-Katrina work and her successful drive to ban smoking in bars and casinos.