On Monday, Donald Trump and Senator Mitch McConnell conducted a joint press conference to showcase just how super sympatico they are on every subject you can imagine. That’s how the Senate passed Trump’s … and moved forward on his big plan for … okay, moving on.
Behind the scenes, Trump, his administration and even some senators are increasingly worried that taxes will go the way of Obamacare repeal in the Senate: Months of bickering ending in extreme embarrassment.
Trump’s tax plan consists of massively lowering taxes to corporations already wallowing in record wealth, sharply cut taxes for the wealthy, let the rich pretend to be companies if their personal taxes aren’t already low enough, and raise taxes for middle class families.
To sell this plan, both Trump and Republicans in the Senate are going back to the well they’ve pumped so many times before—trickle-down economics. Sure, corporations have record profits that aren’t translating into jobs or higher salaries, but give them even more, and it’s sure to work. Absolutely, the wealthy already control more of the economy than at any time since 1929, but if we just hand them even more, they’ll shower the country with … presumably something more than what Trump paid for in a Russian hotel room.
It’s absolutely dead standard, done it before, and some more, supply side, Chicago-School, Gen-u-een Voodoo, and … there are a few Republicans who think perhaps they’ve taken just a few too many bites out of that apple. There are also, of course, senators who think Trump’s still vaguely defined plan doesn’t go half far enough in milking the last dime from those who didn’t have the sense to get themselves into the top one percent of the one percent.
All of which looks to make Mitch and Donnie Superfriends the shortest running show of the season.
The debate hasn’t even started on the GOP’s plan, yet some senators are pushing their own tax proposals, while others are increasingly emboldened to defy the Republican president. It’s a dangerous mix considering that McConnell can lose only two votes assuming Democrats band together in opposition.
The biggest pressure pushing for cooperation is 2018, but that’s a lot less palpable force in the Senate than it is in the House. With the big majority of senators facing swing-state elections on the Democratic side, Republican senators—with the notable exception of Nevada Senator Dean Heller, who is probably already engaged in circulating his resume with lobbying firms—may feel safe enough to fight for their own ideas. In fact, with Trump’s approval rating still in the thirties and the wind blowing to the left, Republican senators may feel compelled to put some distance between themselves and Trump.
Even if that means getting creative.
Sen. Ron Johnson (R-Wis.) is so skeptical that the Senate can enact the GOP's tax framework that he’s begun pitching his own tax plans to colleagues. It would shift the burden of corporate taxes onto shareholders and allow individuals to opt out of the existing tax code and into a system without the confusing array of tax preferences and deductions that people can now choose.
Because if there’s anything less confusing than one tax plan, it’s an optional second tax system that runs in parallel with the first.