The Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir, Jeff Singer, Stephen Wolf, and Carolyn Fiddler, with additional contributions from David Jarman, Steve Singiser, Daniel Donner, James Lambert, David Beard, and Arjun Jaikumar.
Leading Off
● SC-Gov: South Carolina Gov. Henry McMaster's primary foes are hoping that his decades-long ties to powerful GOP political consultant Richard Quinn will give them an opening in next year's primary, and they just may be in luck. Quinn, his son, and three other politicians were indicted on Wednesday as part of a long-running state corruption investigation.
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Quinn was charged with criminal conspiracy and illegal lobbying, with the indictment declaring that Quinn "did attempt to influence the action or vote of members of the S.C. General Assembly by direct communication on behalf of entities which employed, retained or appointed defendant's businesses and defendant did not register as a lobbyist…" Quinn has been one of the most powerful people in South Carolina politics for decades. As The State's John Monk writes, "Quinn's reputation as a power broker with access to and sway with anyone in South Carolina who counted was legendary. His political domain was even given a nickname worthy of an empire: 'The Quinndom.'"
And the ranks of the Quinndom's bannermen include some very notable Republicans besides McMaster, who was promoted from lieutenant governor to governor after Gov. Nikki Haley resigned in January to join the Trump administration. Sen. Lindsey Graham; Rep. Joe "You Lie!" Wilson; and Attorney General Alan Wilson, who is also the congressman's son, are also members of this club. Columbia Mayor Steve Benjamin, a Democrat, has also hired Quinn. One Republican who did not work with Quinn was Haley, who tweeted in March that she "experienced the wrath" of Quinn's firm Richard Quinn & Associates.
There's no sign that McMaster himself has anything to do with Quinn's alleged wrongdoing, but McMaster may have a very tough time distancing himself from this story anyway. McMaster had been a Quinn client from his unsuccessful 1986 Senate campaign until this year. And we've mentioned before, Quinn helped save McMaster's re-election campaign for state party chair back in 2000. The party was in bad financial shape, but just before the vote, RQ&A and another firm contributed a total of $85,000 to the GOP's coffers. The party then released letters showing it had plenty of money in the bank, and McMaster won another term. But just days before the vote, the money was all wired back in secret—information that didn't come out until long after the election.
McMaster's ties to Quinn continued through the next decade. In March of this year, just after he became governor, McMaster declared that he'd keep working with RQ&A despite the legal cloud surrounding them, saying they've "worked together for a lot of years on political things, and I intend to continue working with them." McMaster eventually thought better of it and signed on a new consultant in May.
Next year, McMaster faces a primary from a few Republican opponents. McMaster's most formidable foe is Catherine Templeton, a former member of Haley's cabinet. Templeton has been arguing that McMaster is part of a corrupt establishment, and after Quinn was indicted, she immediately seized on this theme and declared that "South Carolina needs a new generation of conservative leadership that will deliver for our taxpayers instead of the corrupt good ol' boy system." If McMaster survives his primary, Democrats will likely try and attack him along the same lines.
Senate
● AL-Sen: Fox, which as usual employs Democratic pollster Anderson Robbins Research and GOP firm Shaw & Company Research, is out with a poll of the December Alabama Senate race showing Republican Roy Moore and Democrat Doug Jones deadlocked 42-42. Three other groups have released polls in the last few weeks, with Opinion Savvy giving Moore a 50-45 edge and GOP firms JMC Analytics and Cygnal showing him up by 8 points.
It would be remarkable if Jones is keeping things this close in a tough state like Alabama, but we need more information. And as is so often the case in very red states like this, there's good reason for Democrats to be pessimistic that the undecided voters will break their way. One thing to watch out for will be if the Senate Leadership Fund, which spent millions against Moore in the primary, gets involved. This well-funded super PAC, which is close to Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, recently announced that they wouldn't be helping Moore in the general… unless they think he actually needs it.
● NE-Sen: GOP Sen. Deb Fischer has no credible primary challengers in sight in this conservative state, but Steve Bannon may be hoping to change that. The National Journal's Josh Kraushaar writes that Bannon has spoken to former state Treasurer Shane Osborn about running, but there's no word on how interested Osborn is.
Osborn ran for Nebraska's other Senate seat in 2014 after incumbent Mike Johanns retired, and he originally looked like the frontrunner. However, Osborn's campaign drew some bad headlines after voters learned that he had produced a fake Navy memo to defend his military record. Ben Sasse ended up winning the primary with 49 percent, while Osborn grabbed third place with just 21.
Fischer herself has been a loyal, though quiet, supporter of the Trump agenda. But Fischer, who won her primary in a 2012 upset, also has been a Mitch McConnell backer, which is enough to earn her scorn from some elements of the party. Fischer is probably one of the last Senate Republicans who should need to worry about her primary, so if she actually does wind up in trouble next year, it will speak volumes about where the national GOP is.
● UT-Sen: Watching GOP Sen. Orrin Hatch's public deliberations about whether or not to run for re-election is about to fun to view as most sitcom "will they or won't they?"s. Hatch raised $937,000 during the third quarter of the year and has $4.75 million on-hand, which seems to indicate that yes, he'll run. But Hatch raised about the same amount last year, and he continues to keep us in suspense, so who knows? Hatch himself said last month, "Right now, I intend to run again. But who knows? By the end of the year, I'll make that determination."
● WY-Sen: Last week, the New York Times reported that Erik Prince, the notorious founder of the mercenary company Blackwater, was mulling a GOP primary bid against Sen. John Barrasso, even though Price lived in Michigan and doesn't have strong ties to Wyoming. Price has confirmed his interest to the Washington Examiner, and he's wasting no time trying to prebut any carpetbagging charges. While the Times said that Price had a Wyoming address for several years in the late 1990s and early 2000s, Price argued he has owned a home in the state for 25 years. He also said he totally loves the state, adding he "can relate to ranchers and roughnecks and professional game guides and farmers and homemakers."
Meanwhile, Barrasso's colleague Mike Enzi immediately made it clear that he'd back Barrasso. But freshman Rep. Liz Cheney, who represents the entire state, refused to weigh in. Back in 2013, Cheney herself challenged Enzi in the primary, and she encountered many of the same pitfalls that Price could face. Cheney had only moved to Wyoming from the D.C. area a year before she launched her campaign, and she couldn't make a convincing case for why primary voters should fire their senator. Cheney ended up dropping out in early 2014, though she won her House seat last cycle with little trouble.
Gubernatorial
● AK-Gov: This week, state Superior Court Judge Philip Pallenberg ruled in favor of the Alaska Democratic Party's lawsuit to allow independents to run in Democratic primaries, a decision that could have a big effect on next year's race for governor. Back in 2014, independent Bill Walker became the de facto Democratic candidate after Democratic nominee Byron Mallott dropped out of the general election to became his running mate, and Walker narrowly unseated Republican Sean Parnell a few months later. Walker is running for re-election once again as an independent with Mallott as his running mate, and Walker would have a tough time winning this time if he had to face a Republican and a Democratic opponent in the general.
However, this ruling, assuming it survives any appeals (the state says they'll decide whether to appeal over the next three to five weeks), could help the governor avoid that pitfall. If Walker runs for the Democratic nomination and wins it, he could once again be the de facto Democratic nominee without actually needing to run as a Democrat in this red state. However, Pallenberg did rule that if an independent wins the Democratic primary, that person's party registration and the fact that they won the Democratic primary should be listed on the ballot.
It's also far from clear if Walker will be able to get through a Democratic primary if he runs there. Ex-Sen. Mark Begich, who narrowly lost his seat in 2014, has been considering a comeback bid, and he'd be incredibly tough for Walker to defeat in a primary. State Sen. Bill Wielechowski also expressed interest in running if no candidate shares his values, and he's opposed Walker from the left before.
● NJ-Gov: Anderson Robbins Research (D) and Shaw & Company Research (R) for Fox: Phil Murphy (D): 47, Kim Guadagno (R): 33 (Sept.: 42-29 Murphy)
● NY-Gov: On Wednesday, Republican Marc Molinaro created a committee ahead of a possible bid against Democratic incumbent Andrew Cuomo. Molinaro is the county executive of Dutchess, a swingy area in the Hudson Valley north of New York City.
Molinaro and Assembly Minority Leader Brian Kolb, who has also been mulling a bid, recently revealed that they've been discussing running as a ticket next year rather than running against each other, and they say they'll decide what to do in the next month. Neither Molinaro nor Kolb hinted which one of them would run for governor and which would campaign for lieutenant governor, though Molinaro's move may be a sign that he's leaning towards seeking the big job. Several other Republicans have also talked about challenging Cuomo in this very blue state.
● VA-Gov: On Wednesday, Democrat Ralph Northam got a pair of optimistic polls. Democratic group Anderson Robbins Research and GOP pollster Shaw & Company Research, working on behalf of Fox, gave Northam a 49-42 lead over Republican Ed Gillespie with likely voters, a big switch from the 42-41 Northam edge they found a month ago. Quinnipiac gave Northam a lead twice as big, finding him up 53-39. Quinnipiac has always been bullish towards Northam, and they gave him a 51-41 lead last month. These polls come a day after a trio of other firms found things closer, with Monmouth notably giving Gillespie a 48-47 edge.
● WI-Gov: At long last, Scott Walker has finally confirmed he'll seek a third term as governor next year, saying in a fundraising email that he intends to officially launch his campaign the week of Nov. 6. Walker had said all year that he'd wait to announce his plans until the passage of Wisconsin's budget, which was three months late, though he finally signed it a month ago. But it was always a bit of theater, since Walker had been raising money for another go-round ever since he abandoned his short-lived presidential bid two years ago.
In the meantime, several notable Democrats have gathered to challenge him. That's a big difference from last time, when the party struggled to recruit an opponent before finally settling on businesswoman Mary Burke, who didn't enter the race until October of 2013. This year, the Democratic field already includes state Superintendent of Public Instruction Tony Evers, businessman Andy Gronik, state Rep. Dana Wachs, state Sen. Kathleen Vinehout, and former party chair Matt Flynn.
And several more candidates are also considering, among them Madison Mayor Paul Soglin, former state Rep. Kelda Helen Roys, fire fighters union president Mahlon Mitchell, and Jefferson County District Attorney Susan Happ. In addition, Assemblyman Gordon Hintz did not rule out a bid back in May, but he was just elected as his caucus' minority leader, so he's probably out. (Also important: According to Wikipedia, Hintz "placed second in the 2003 National Air Guitar championships under the pseudonym 'Krye Tuff.'")
House
● FL-16: Democrats continue to expand the playing field in next year's House elections, and their latest notable recruit, personal injury attorney David Shapiro, comes in a district that so far hadn't popped up on many radar screens. It's easy to see why: Florida's 16th Congressional District, located on the state's Gulf coast and centered around Sarasota, has been represented by Republican Rep. Vern Buchanan for over a decade and went for Donald Trump by a 53-43 margin.
But Shapiro runs a prominent law practice that has advertised on local TV for years, making him the rare non-politician to start a race with a measure of name recognition. And while it's not clear whether he's rich enough to self-fund, he's definitely well-off, and he undoubtedly knows plenty of other trial lawyers—a community with many well-to-do practitioners who strongly support Democrats. Shapiro also has some electoral experience: In 2006, he lost a race in a very red state House district by just 1 point. He now says "the sting of that tight loss finally wore off" and that he's ready to run for office again.
Still, he's taking on a meaty target. In addition to representing a very Republican seat, Buchanan is also one of the wealthiest members of Congress, with an eye-popping net worth of $115 million, so he can definitely self-fund if he feels the need to. Democrats also tried seriously challenging him back in 2012, but he still prevailed over ex-state Rep. Keith Fitzgerald 54-46.
This seat could be winnable under the right circumstances, though. Back in 2006, when its predecessor (then numbered the 13th) came open, Buchanan only beat Democrat Christine Jennings by an incredibly narrow 369 votes, a margin of just 0.15 percent. And Buchanan may only have won that race thanks to a massive undervote in the most Democratic part of the district, possibly due to a poorly designed ballot on electronic voting machines that lacked any paper trail. An open seat is a different beast, of course, but those results suggest Buchanan could be vulnerable.
● IN-06: Businessman Greg Pence, an older brother of Vice President Mike Pence, has been talking about running for this safely red eastern Indiana seat for a while. Pence hasn't announced anything yet, but he set up a campaign committee with the FEC this week. The two Pences are close, and if Greg Pence is in, he certainly won't need to worry about fundraising.
● MA-03: Massachusetts' open 3rd Congressional District has attracted more than its share of ambitious Democrats, but that isn't stopping two more from jumping in: Nonprofit director Steve Kerrigan, who was the Democratic nominee for lieutenant governor in 2014, and Westford School Committee chair Terry Ryan, who's also the director of the Merrimack Valley Small Business Center. Half a dozen other Democrats are already running or are exploring bids.
● MI-11: GOP state Rep. Laura Cox, who had been considering a bid for Michigan's open 11th Congressional District, has instead announced she'll run for the state Senate.
● NH-01: Rochester City Attorney Terence O'Rourke, who'd been considering a bid for New Hampshire's open 1st Congressional District, has now officially joined the race, making him the first Democrat to do so. O'Rourke is also an Army combat veteran who served in Iraq and won a Bronze Star.
● TN-07: On Tuesday, Franklin Mayor Ken Moore told a local radio host that he's considering a bid for this safely red Middle Tennessee seat, and will decide in two weeks. Moore argued that "most people feel like the people in Congress need to be working together to try to accomplish some things," adding, "It is a dysfunctional time in our country, and I think this country needs to come back together." That doesn't exactly fit the "burn it all down!" attitude of modern GOP primary voters. (Moore doesn't appear to have said he'd run as a Republican, though he'd have a tough time winning as anything else in this 68-28 Trump seat.)
● UT-03: The Nov. 7 special election to replace ex-GOP Rep. Jason Chaffetz has attracted almost no national attention, and that's very unlikely to change. Dan Jones & Associates, polling on behalf of the Salt Lake Tribune and the University of Utah, gives Republican John Curtis a 46-19 lead over Democrat Katie Allen; independent Jim Bennett, the son of the late GOP Sen. Bob Bennett, grabs 9.
Legislative
● Special Elections: Johnny Longtorso recaps Tuesday night's happenings:
Massachusetts Senate, Bristol & Norfolk: Democrats held on to this one, with Paul Feeney defeating Republican Jacob Ventura by a 47-44 margin. Independent Joe Shortsleeve came up short with 9 percent.
The results represent an underperformance compared to the 2016 presidential results (but a slight overperformance vis-à-vis the 2012 numbers), and it's very possible that the improbably named Joe Shortsleeve was the cause. Shortsleeve is a prominent local reporter who had initially wanted to run as a Democrat but realized he'd never get the party's nomination after being very vocal about having voted for Trump last year. It's therefore possible he pulled votes from Ventura, but Shortsleeve also said he'd voted for Bernie Sanders in the Democratic primary. Given that plus his stated party preference, Shortsleeve may well have hurt Feeney more.
It's also worth noting that this district is very Republican downballot: Even as he was losing his re-election bid in 2012, Scott Brown still won Bristol & Norfolk 58-42, and in 2014, Republican Gov. Charlie Baker carried this seat 59-37.