The Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir, Jeff Singer, Stephen Wolf, and Carolyn Fiddler, with additional contributions from David Jarman, Steve Singiser, Daniel Donner, James Lambert, David Beard, and Arjun Jaikumar.
Leading Off
● AZ-Sen: On Thursday, Arizona Rep. Kyrsten Sinema announced that she would seek the Democratic nomination to challenge GOP Sen. Jeff Flake. Sinema's decision has been expected for some time, and the DSCC endorsed her the following morning. Sinema also quickly earned an endorsement from EMILY's List, an influential group dedicated to electing pro-choice Democratic women. If Sinema wins, she will be the first openly bisexual person elected to the Senate, a distinction she already holds in the House.
Campaign Action
Sinema, who has represented a Tempe-area seat for three terms, had $3.2 million in the bank at the end of June, more than Flake's $3 million war chest. Sinema has spent years considering a bid for statewide office in this light red state, and the former Ralph Nader supporter has developed a reputation as a centrist in the House. Notably, Sinema voted against Nancy Pelosi in the 2015 and 2017 speakership elections, symbolically casting her vote instead for Democratic Rep. John Lewis, a civil rights icon. Sinema has also argued that national Democrats are moving too far to the left, and she said that it's "just not real" to promise single-payer health and free college.
It's possible that Sinema could be vulnerable in a primary, but there doesn't seem to be a credible opponent on the horizon. A few other Democrats have already announced that they'll challenge Flake, but none of them has much name-recognition or outside support. State Rep. Randy Friese has previously said he was leaning toward running, but he also announced on Friday that he would support Sinema and seek re-election to the legislature.
Trump carried Arizona 48-45, and Flake is a top Democratic target. Flake has been one of Trump's most vocal critics in the GOP while voting with him on most major issues, and he may have managed to just piss off voters from across the political divide without making many friends in the process. Flake faces a primary challenge from ex-state Sen. Kelli Ward, who lost her 2016 bid against Sen. John McCain 51-40, and a few recent polls show him badly losing. The local GOP pollster HighGround Public Affairs also recently found Flake losing a hypothetical general election to Sinema 41-33, while a poll for the Democratic group Senate Majority PAC had him down 47-40.
Senate
● AL-Sen: On behalf of the election data site Decision Desk HQ, Opinion Savvy is out with the first poll of the Dec. 12 special Senate election in Alabama since Tuesday's GOP runoff, and they give Republican Roy Moore a 50-45 lead over Democrat Doug Jones. Donald Trump carried Alabama 62-34 and Democrats haven't won a statewide election there since 2008, so this would be a remarkably close result for Team Blue.
Still, there are plenty of things to keep in mind with this poll. As we said at the top, this is the first survey we've seen, and other firms may find a different result. This poll was also in the field just after the primary runoff, where Moore, the infamous former chief justice of the state Supreme Court, was on the receiving end of millions of dollars worth of ads from appointed Sen. Luther Strange and his allies at the Senate Leadership Fund. Those ads didn't come anywhere close to stopping Moore, who dispatched Strange 55-45, but they could have hurt him with the rest of the electorate.
By contrast, no one has run a single commercial against Jones. Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell very much didn't want Moore, whom he tried to beat in the primary, in the Senate, but he'll want a Democrat in that seat even less: If the GOP feels like this seat is in any danger, Jones should expect plenty of Republican ads to be aimed at him.
However, this poll at least suggests that Jones could have an opening in this incredibly tough state. Moore, who was thrown off the court in 2003 after he refused to comply with a federal judge's order to remove a monument of the Ten Commandments from the grounds of the state Supreme Court, does have plenty of enemies. In 2012, Moore successfully ran for the court again, but he only beat his Democratic opponent 52-48 as Mitt Romney was easily carrying Alabama. (Moore was removed again for defying federal court orders regarding same-sex marriage.)
This survey gives Trump a positive 54-43 approval rating, so at least a fair number of Trump voters are on the fence right now. However, the poll does show Moore at 50 percent, if only just; if this survey is right, Moore just needs to hold onto the voters who already plan to support him in order to win. In a state as conservative as Alabama, that's not a tough task for any Republican.
So far, it's unclear if national Democrats plan to get involved. A pickup here would be huge, but it's still very unlikely. Still, if Democrats in D.C. see more polls showing Moore only modestly ahead, they may not be able to say no to coming in and helping Jones.
● MT-Sen: Businessman and Air Force veteran Troy Downing, who is one of a few Republicans challenging Democratic Sen. Jon Tester, has faced questions about his ties to Montana from the beginning of the campaign, and this story is the last thing he needed. The Bozeman Daily Chronicle's Freddy Monares writes that in July, Downing was cited with seven misdemeanors for allegedly trying to buy or purchase hunting and fishing licenses as an out-of-state resident, which is against the law; he was also hit with another misdemeanor for trying to transfer the hunting license, and one more for "assisting an unqualified applicant in obtaining a hunting license." The violations span each year from 2011 to 2016. Downing pled not guilty in August.
Monares writes that, in order to buy a resident hunting or fishing license, a person needs to be a Montana resident for at least 180 days, "must register a vehicle in Montana, file state income tax returns as a resident, and not possess or apply for any resident hunting, fishing or trapping privileges in another state." Downing, who operates a San Diego-based storage company, has residences in California and Montana, though he says he became a full-time Montana resident a few years ago. Downing's attorney argues these citations are all just "an administrative oversight."
Back in 2013, Republican Liz Cheney drew some similar headlines during her bid for a Senate seat in Wyoming. Cheney had only moved back to the state from Northern Virginia the previous year, and she soon decided to challenge Sen. Mike Enzi in the primary. A little while later, Cheney posted a $220 bond for trying to buy a resident fishing license the previous summer, even though she had not lived in the state the full year she needed to qualify. Cheney ended up dropping out of the race a few months later, and while her campaign failed for many other reasons, her weak ties to Wyoming did not help. (Cheney won a House seat four years later.)
Over in Montana, Downing faces a few opponents in the primary, most notably state Auditor Matt Rosendale. Even if this legal mess is resolved in his favor, Downing's foes will have an easier time arguing that he's only a tourist in the state he wants to represent.
● OH-Sen: Josh Mandel, the state treasurer in name only of Ohio, faces a GOP primary with businessman Mike Gibbons, and he's out with a new poll from Remington Research arguing he has zero to worry about. Remington shows Mandel leading Gibbons 50-5; with Melissa Ackison, a woman whose healthcare woes Trump has highlighted in denouncing Obama but doesn't seem to have many allies or much money in this race, also takes 5. This poll was in the field Sept. 26-27.
Gibbons' camp immediately cast doubt on Remington's accuracy, but they didn't respond with their own numbers. Of course, it's quite likely that Gibbons just has little support at this point in the race; while Gibbons has run some ads, he doesn't appear to have spent enough to get his name out statewide. It's unclear if Gibbons will have the wealth or connections to bring in the type of cash he'll need to boost his support, or if the better-known Mandel will easily advance to the general election with Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown.
● WI-Sen: Back in February, GOP Rep. Sean Duffy announced that he would not challenge Democratic Sen. Tammy Baldwin in next year's Wisconsin Senate race, but he's reportedly reconsidering. The National Journal's Josh Kraushaar writes that Duffy raised $550,000 from July to September. Duffy raised a larger $652,000 during the previous quarter, so this may not be notable on its own. But when Duffy's spokesman was asked about the congressman's future pans, he responded, "Congressman Duffy has support from all over Wisconsin, and he's well prepared for whatever is on the horizon." That's very much not a no.
Back in February, Duffy likely could have cleared the field if he ran, but two notable candidates have jumped in since then. Businessman Kevin Nicholson, who has the support of the anti-tax Club for Growth, and state Sen. Leah Vukmir jumped in a little while ago. It's not clear if either of them would be willing to defer to Duffy.
And while Duffy is often portrayed as a top-tier GOP candidate, we've noted in the past that he has a history of saying awful or just plain dumb things. Most notably, Duffy said in February that "good things" came out of the 2015 massacre at Charleston's Emanuel AME Church, and justified Trump's travel ban by arguing that white supremacist terrorism doesn't compare to the "death and destruction in Europe from refugees."
Gubernatorial
● IL-Gov: On Thursday, GOP Gov. Bruce Rauner signed a bill passed by the Democratic-led Illinois state legislature to expand public abortion funding in Illinois. Rauner essentially had two choices here: Kill the bill and make it easier for Democrats to attack him on abortion in a blue state or allow it to become law and piss off the GOP base, and he choose door number two. That decision could cost him dearly.
Several Republicans didn't hesitate to bluntly voice their disgust with the governor, with several state legislators, including Assistant Minority Leader Peter Breen, speaking out against his move and saying they could no longer support him. Perhaps worst of all, Chicago Cardinal Blase Cupich publicly said that Rauner "broke his word to the people, especially those who have continued to speak on behalf of the vulnerable child in the womb." The local press even started to speculate that Rauner wouldn't seek re-election next year, enough that his spokesperson felt compelled to respond and say the governor was running.
It's still unclear how much damage this will do Rauner politically. State Sen. Sam McCann has been talking about running against Rauner in the primary for months, and while he blasted the governor as a liar on Thursday, he tells Politico he's still undecided. Politico's Natasha Korecki writes that some other potential names of possible primary challengers circulating around are state Rep. Jeanne Ives, state Sen. Kyle McCarter (who lost a primary challenge to Rep. John Shimkus 60-40 last year), and conservative radio host Dan Proft, who took sixth place with 8 percent of the vote in the 2010 primary.
Ives told Chicago Business's Greg Hinz that she hopes Rauner gets a primary challenge, and she has not ruled out doing it herself. Hinz writes that Ives "is particularly well connected to key conservative players with access to big campaign cash." As the governor's intra-party foes know, they need to have just one strong candidate to avoid splitting the anti-Rauner vote.
Rauner is extremely wealthy and will have the resources to defend himself no matter what. But Korecki writes that possible primary foes aren't hesitating because they're afraid of Rauner's checkbook. Instead, they're worried that Trump's unpopularity could take down the Republicans running statewide here. Illinois' filing deadline is Dec. 4, so possible candidates don't have too long to decide.
But if Rauner does dodge a primary, or even if he wins renomination, he could still have problems. If conservatives decide to stay home next November over this, it wouldn't just cost Rauner, it would drag down Republicans in key congressional races. At the very least, Rauner's future Democratic foe has more than enough clips of Republicans harshly denouncing him to use in ads next year.
● VA-Gov: GOP candidate Ed Gillespie is doubling down on racist anti-immigrant, anti-Latino tropes in his ads. After receiving widespread criticism for a positively Willie Horton-esque ad just last week, Gillespie released a followup spot that will air in the Roanoke market, which covers much of the rural Southside and Southwest parts of Virginia. The new ad again goes hard on the MS-13 fear-mongering, displaying the gang's "Rape, Control, Kill" motto on-screen before tying Democrat Ralph Northam's vote against banning "sanctuary cities" to the proliferation of the gang (which actually predominantly targets undocumented immigrant communities).
But Virginia actually doesn't have sanctuary cities—a fact Gillespie acknowledged in a recent debate but conveniently omits from his ads on the issue. Gillespie hasn't led in a single poll since March, despite dominating the airwaves with TV ads all summer—a fact that has the campaign spooked and willing to stoop to pushing lies and racism in an attempt to energize the GOP base.
House
● AZ-09: Democratic Rep. Kyrsten Sinema's decision to run for the Senate opens up her 9th Congressional District, which includes all of Tempe and part of Chandler, Mesa, Scottsdale, and Phoenix. This seat was originally quite competitive when it was drawn up at the beginning of the decade, and Sinema won it by a narrow 49-45 as Obama was beating Romney 51-47 here. However, Sinema decisively won during the 2014 GOP wave, and the entire Democratic ticket carried the seat that year as they were losing statewide. Sinema easily beat a weak GOP foe last year as Clinton was winning by a wide 55-38 here. However, via Greg Giroux, Republican Sen. John McCain won 48-47 here in 2016, so Team Red may have an outside shot.
Back in August, before Sinema announced she would leave the seat, local NBC-affiliate KPNX reported that Phoenix Mayor Greg Stanton, a fellow Democrat, would run in her place. Stanton has not said anything yet, but Roll Call's Bridget Bowman writes that political insiders expect Stanton to run, and The Arizona Republic political columnist Elvia Diaz wrote on Friday that Stanton will jump in "soon." Ex-state House Minority Leader Chad Campbell has reportedly been considering as well, but an unnamed source tells Bowman that he probably won't run against Stanton.
Under Arizona's resign-to-run law, Stanton will need to resign as mayor if he seeks this post because more than a year will remain in his term; Diaz writes that this will probably happen between January and March. (Phoenix's next mayoral race is in 2019; Stanton cannot seek a third term.) Only about a third of the 9th is in the city of Phoenix, but the entire seat is in the Phoenix media market, so Stanton shouldn't struggle with name recognition if he runs.
Team Red will have a very uphill climb here, but they seem to have a credible candidate. Retired Navy physician Steve Ferrara raised $253,000 from April to June, and Bowman reports that national Republicans view him as a strong contender.
● MD-06: Wealthy businessman David Trone is already up with his first two cable TV ads months ahead of the Democratic primary for this open seat. Both spots praise the Dreamers as ordinary hard-working Americans, and hits Trump and Congress for considering deporting them. There's no mention or appearance of Trone in either spot whatsoever except at the very end, where Trone is heard declaring, "I'm David Trone, and I approve this message" as a picture of his logo flashes by.
● PA-11: While Democratic state Sen. John Yudichak expressed interest in seeking this open 60-36 Trump seat, he announced Thursday that he wouldn't go for it. This Wyoming Valley seat is very much a reach target for Team Blue, though dairy farmer Dennis Wolff, who served as state agriculture secretary under Democratic Gov. Ed Rendell from 2003 to 2009, has also talked about running.
Grab Bag
● Statehouse Action: This Week in Statehouse Action: Fall In District Lines edition has it all: special election wins, nonsense Nevada recalls, a Virginia Republican being transphobic and terrible to his opponent, and more!
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