VA-Gov: There Is A Gap In Voter Enthusiasm But It's Coming From Trump Country

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Monday October 23, 2017 · 10:23 AM PDT

2017/10/23 · 10:23

While there’s always talk about low voter turnout and enthusiasm in off year elections like the Virginia governor race, there seems to be amble amount of evidence to back that up. But in this case, it’s bad news for lobbyist and former RNC chairman, Ed Gillespie (R. VA):

Trump, who promised to revive the coal industry, had some of his biggest victory margins in Appalachia’s coal region last year. But those same voters said they know little about Gillespie, a former Republican National Committee chairman, corporate lobbyist and multimillionaire who was raised in New Jersey and now lives in Northern Virginia.

The town of Pound, nestled near the Kentucky line, was once a booming coal center where the main drag got so busy with shoppers that people couldn’t find a parking spot. Now, many shops are boarded up with dusty “For Sale” signs. Some buildings are collapsing, overgrown with weeds. Jobs are scarce. Prescription pain pills are a major problem. The high school closed in 2011.

Eight out of 10 voters in Pound backed Trump, and some of the town’s remaining business owners and patrons say their faith has already been rewarded.

“I’ve seen more coal trucks in the last six months than I have in the past eight years,” said David Williams, who owns a TV repair and fishing gear store.

But Gillespie is about as un-Trumplike as a candidate can be, and generates much less interest. Williams said he’s doesn’t know much about who is on the Nov. 7 ballot or what they stand for.

“There hasn’t been a whole lot about the governor’s race being talked about right now,” he said. “I’m sure it’ll pick up when it gets closer to election time. I guess that’s right around the corner, isn’t it? I didn’t even think about that.”

There’s more:

Hair salon owner Kim Mcfall said what little she knows of Gillespie hasn't impressed her -- he's not enough like Trump, and too much like a typical politician.

"He's wishy washy," she said, adding that she'll probably vote for Gillespie -- if she has the time on Election Day.

The enthusiasm gap highlights the growing chasm between Trump enthusiasts and Republican establishment figures like Gillespie and Alabama Sen. Luther Strange, who recently lost a GOP primary runoff against Roy Moore, a Trump-like candidate supported by former presidential strategist Steve Bannon.

Similar tensions could dominate next year's midterm elections. Bannon is in open war with the GOP establishment and intends to lead a "populist nationalist conservative revolt" against incumbent Republicans in Congress.

Gillespie has largely tried to avoid talking about Trump on the campaign trail and declined to say whether he would invite Trump to campaign with him, fearful of alienating moderate voters in a state's more urban areas. Most polls show Trump is unpopular overall in Virginia, the only Southern state Hillary Clinton won.

But he'll need strong support from Virginia's rural voters like those in Pound if he's to counter Democrat Ralph Northam's likely advantage in the state's urban areas and Northern Virginia's voter-rich suburbs. Once a Democratic stronghold, southwest Virginia has become reliably Republican in recent elections.

To win over Trump voters without directly embracing the president, Gillespie has tried to run on Trump-like issues such as cracking down on unlawful immigrants who commit crimes and preserving Virginia's Confederate statues. He also campaigned recently in Abingdon, one of southwest Virginia's biggest towns, with Vice President Mike Pence.

After a recent debate in Wise, about 11 miles from Pound, Gillespie told reporters that his focus on improving the state's economy with tax cuts and fewer regulations will resonate with southwest Virginia voters.

Gillespie is in a real dilemma here. If he were to campaign with Trump that would help out with turning out his base:

The editorial page of region’s biggest newspaper, the Bristol Herald Courier, recently declined to endorse either candidate, saying Gillespie gives the impression he’s uninformed about issues important to southwest Virginia. And the rally with Pence only drew a few hundred supporters. (A private fundraiser with former President George W. Bush in Richmond a few days later, by contrast, drew about twice as many.)

Cliff Cauthorne, a Pound council member and chaplain at a nearby state prison, said Gillespie has only one good option for motivating his town’s voters: a Trump rally, “or two.”

“Him coming here with a coal miner’s hat on, it would just fire people up. It would fire people up,” Cauthorne said.

But Trump remains deeply unpopular in a state that Hillary Clinton won and his presence would only increase voter enthusiasm amongst Democratic voters who would love to make this race a referendum on Trump. Also, Gillespie moving further to the right on issues isn’t exactly helping him either. Like gun control:

He does not fully advertise his stance. A questionnaire he filled out earlier this year helped earn him the National Rifle Association's A rating, as well as its endorsement. The Gillespie campaign, which certainly knows that most Virginians are more moderate on gun control than is the NRA (whose headquarters is in Northern Virginia), has declined to release that document to voters.

What is publicly known about Mr. Gillespie's positions makes clear that if he is elected governor, he would oppose the enactment of any common-sense gun-safety measures in the state where a gunman killed 32 people on the campus of Virginia Tech in 2007 and where Rep. Steve Scalise (R-La.) was shot at a baseball practice in Alexandria this year.

Mr. Gillespie would oppose "any and all attempts to weaken the Second Amendment rights of Virginians," if necessary by using his veto power, according to his website. He reiterated that position even after the massacre in Las Vegas.

Mr. Gillespie would throw out the rule banning guns in state government buildings. As for whether he would also target laws requiring permits for concealed weapons, or banning them in elementary, middle and high schools, who knows? Mr. Gillespie is apparently content to give those answers to the NRA, but not to voters. And how about waiting periods for handgun purchases, which prevent 750 gun deaths annually, according to a new study in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences? Would Mr. Gillespie oppose those in Virginia?

After the bloodbath in Las Vegas, he did say he'd support legislation banning bump stocks, the accessory that allows semiautomatic weapons to fire near the rate of fully automatic ones — but only after the NRA first said it might back regulation.

And that’s only welcoming more attacks against his campaign:

Everytown for Gun Safety Action Fund, the political arm of one of the nation’s largest gun control groups, is pouring an additional $700,000 into Virginia elections.

The organization announced Monday it would donate $400,000 to Democratic gubernatorial candidate Ralph Northam and $300,000 to Democratic Attorney General Mark Herring’s re-election bid in the final two weeks before election day.

That comes on top of an earlier $1 million dollar commitment from the organization bankrolled by former New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg.

Gun control was thrust into the spotlight of the Virginia governor’s race after a gunman killed at least 58 during a country music festival in Las Vegas earlier this month.

Northam, the state’s lieutenant governor, reiterated his call to ban assault weapons and high-capacity magazines. He also wants universal background checks and to restore Virginia’s one-gun-a-month purchase limits, which Republicans had overturned.

Northam’s Republican opponent, Ed Gillespie, signaled he was open to regulating ‘bump stocks’ — the device used to accelerate gunfire in the Las Vegas shooting. after the idea got backing from the National Rifle Association. But otherwise, Gillespie opposes new restrictions on gun ownership.

Everytown also announced it would redirect $90,000 originally meant for mailers to radio ads targeting black voters. The ad features Lucy McBath, an African American staffer for Everytown whose son was fatally shot in a Florida gas station parking lot after an argument involving loud music.

And Democrats are heavily focused on getting their base out to vote:

The Voter Participation Center, which aims to register and turn out members of underrepresented populations in elections, is on pace to send out 2.2 million pieces of mail from September to Election Day. From Oct. 25 to Nov. 1, the group will send out four waves of get-out-the-vote mailers to unmarried women, African-Americans, Latinos, Asian-Americans and young people — a potential boost to Lt. Gov. Ralph Northam’s campaign for governor. Each group is part of the so-called rising American electorate — young people, non-white people, and unmarried women — which has leaned toward Democrats in recent years.

Some Democrats have worried about the low-key, genial Northam’s ability to excite the progressive base ahead of the critical Virginia gubernatorial election, which also serves as a de facto referendum on a president’s first year in office. Polls have shown the Democrat with a small but steady lead over Republican Ed Gillespie, a former lobbyist and RNC chair.

"The elections in Virginia couldn't be more important for the future of our communities, which is why the Voter Participation Center is investing heavily to make sure underrepresented Virginians register to vote and turn out on election day,” said Page Gardner, the founder and president of the Voter Participation Center.

And there’s more evidence of that:

In an effort to combat those historic trends, BlackPAC, a national organization aiming to mobilize black voters to go to the polls, launched a $1.1 million program to engage voters of color in Virginia. The effort includes a $600,000 canvassing program, with the remainder used for radio and digital ads and mailers.

BlackPAC says it has talked to more than 4,500 black voters in southeast Virginia and plans to have about 100 canvassers door-knocking in the final weeks of the race.

Adrianne Shropshire, BlackPAC’s executive director, noted that 89 percent of the people they spoke to said they plan to vote on Nov. 7.

BlackPAC formed last year, working in key presidential states like Florida.

In the wake of the Charlottesville violence, BlackPAC commissioned a poll that reached out to voters of color on how they felt in the aftermath and their anxiety over racism and other related issues, which they say helped guide the current canvassing efforts.

Shropshire commended Obama for addressing Charlottesville. She said that the former president touched upon many of the issues she hears from voters and said that they are paying close attention to the governor’s race.

“What we have found is the black voters we’re talking to are pretty highly aware of the election,” Shropshire told The Hill. “I would say that people understand the stakes surely the way President Obama defined them.”

“What is more striking to me, people feel a sense of urgency around the election,” she continued, adding that voters are just as concerned about jobs and the economy as they are surrounding issues of racial justice.

Speaking of which, Northam picked up another big endorsement:

The National Black Farmers Association today announced its endorsement of Dr. Ralph Northam to be the next governor of Virginia.

“Dr. Northam grew up on a farm himself, and knows the hard work it takes to be successful in this work,” said NBFA Founder and President John Wesley Boyd Jr. “He also knows that inequity exists in the system, and has proven he’ll listen to these concerns, and work to correct them. I am confident in our endorsement of Ralph Northam, knowing he’ll stand up for the civil rights of all our members, and make sure they have the resources, training, and access to economic development necessary to keep our industry thriving.”

Northam has been a supporter of Virginia’s Agriculture and Forestry Industries Development program, which provides seed money for projects that create value-added agriculture or forestry products in the Commonwealth, and requires those who benefit from the program to source at least 30 percent of their products from Virginia farms, boosting agribusiness.

Let’s keep up the momentum and usher in a big blue wave in Virginia this year. Click below to donate and get involved with Northam, the entire Democratic Ticket and the state party to make major gains in the House of Delegates:

Ralph Northam for Governor

Tim Kaine for U.S. Senate

Justin Fairfax for Lt. Governor

Mark Herring for Attorney General

Virginia Democratic Party

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VA-Gov: There Is A Gap In Voter Enthusiasm But It's Coming From Trump Country

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