AZ-Sen: Immediately after GOP Sen. Jeff Flake announced his retirement on Tuesday, speculation began about which Arizona Republicans would run for his seat. Ex-state Sen. Kelli Ward, who lost the primary to John McCain 51-40 last year, has been running for months, and polls showed her badly beating Flake, who had alienated many primary voters with his public criticism of Trump. Ward remains in the race, but she'll likely have a much tougher time catching on now that she's just another candidate rather than the hated Flake's main rival, especially since she is a poor fundraiser.
With Flake gone, a batch of new Republicans started making noises about running. Attention immediately turned to Rep. Martha McSally, who represents a competitive Tucson seat. McSally is a very strong fundraiser who has experience with tough races, and while a Senate bid would likely give Democrats a much better shot at her House seat, Senate Republicans wouldn't mind that trade. McSally has said nothing publicly, but a source close to her told the Washington Examiner that she was "being bombarded by supporters to consider." The Examiner also wrote that McSally's team was "expected to run the traps on a possible bid."
Rep. Trent Franks, a member of the nihilistic Freedom Caucus, told the Examiner that he was considering, adding, "If the objective for me were to become a U.S. senator...this would be an excellent time to do that. I don't know what the future holds, maybe there would be another time, but I'm just going to see who else decides to look at it for now." Franks eyed this race in 2012 and even reportedly was about to announce he was in, but he reversed course at the very last second. Back when Flake was running for re-election in late August, Franks reportedly met with Trump and a few other state Republicans and agreed that ex-state party chair Robert Graham was the most likely member of the group to challenge the incumbent, though things may have changed now that Flake is on his way out.
Rep. David Schweikert, another Freedom Caucuser, said on Wednesday that, while he wasn't ruling it out, "there is not a burning desire to do that; there just isn't." But Schweikert played all sorts of games last cycle when he sounded very unlikely challenge McCain, only to reportedly start looking at the race again. Ex-Rep. Matt Salmon, a far-right bomb-thrower who helped pressure John Boehner to leave the speakership, also spent last cycle considering a McCain challenge before he just decided to retire. Salmon has said nothing about this seat yet, but a source close to him told The Hill he was "still digesting everything."
A few Republicans talked about challenging Flake before he bailed, and they once again began making noises about running. State Treasurer Jeff DeWit, who is close to Trump, reportedly was unlikely to run against Flake, but he says that his retirement is a "game changer." An unnamed state GOP operative told CNN on Tuesday that DeWit would have Trump's support if he enters the race quickly, but he had "two days to grab the ring." The Washington Examiner, also citing unnamed party insiders, suggested that DeWit "could be discouraged from running by the opposition research book," though there aren't any details about what's in said opposition research book.
Trump and his allies, including DeWit, seemed to have been ready to back Graham two months ago, but there were no obvious developments in the ensuing time. Graham, the former state party chair, said after Flake retired that he's still considering, and that he and DeWit agreed that only one of them would run.
Wealthy attorney Jay Heiler, an ally of ex-Gov. Jan Brewer, said earlier this month that he was also considering challenging Flake, and he also quickly reaffirmed his interest and insisted that Flake's decision wouldn't impact his own. Notorious ex-Maricopa County Sheriff Joe Arpaio, who was pardoned by Trump in August, also had flirted with facing Flake, and said on Tuesday that he wasn't saying no. However, Arpaio is famous for talking about running statewide but never doing it, though unlike in past years, he has no elected office to fall back to.
GOP insiders also mentioned a number of other state Republicans who have yet to signal interest in this seat. Among the names dropped are: freshman Rep. Andy Biggs; wealthy former GoDaddy executive Christine Jones, who narrowly lost the primary to Biggs last year; Maricopa County Attorney Bill Montgomery; state Sen. Steve Montenegro, who is currently running for secretary of state against a GOP incumbent; Arizona Christian University President Len Munsil, who badly lost the 2006 gubernatorial election to Democratic incumbent Janet Napolitano; Attorney General Mark Brnovich; and ex-Rep. John Shadegg, who retired in 2010.
The one member of the GOP House delegation who has said no so far is Rep. Paul Gosar, whose office said he would seek re-election on Wednesday. Gov. Doug Ducey, who is seeking re-election next year, also quickly slammed the door on a Senate bid.
On the Democratic side, there has been little change so far. Rep. Kyrsten Sinema, who jumped in with the DSCC's support, still has no credible primary foes on the horizon. While California Rep. Ro Khanna suggested that Rep. Ruben Gallego could run, he apparently didn't bother asking his colleague since Gallego quickly said no. Rep. Raúl Grijalva did not show any interest in running himself either, but he relayed that, with Flake gone, there's "buzz among progressives and labor" about finding a more liberal candidate than Sinema. Grijalva didn't drop any names, and said that, "On some issues coming up — with DACA, with tax reform, with the budget — people are waiting to see how she positions herself."