The Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir, Jeff Singer, Stephen Wolf, and Carolyn Fiddler, with additional contributions from David Jarman, Steve Singiser, Daniel Donner, James Lambert, David Beard, and Arjun Jaikumar.
Leading Off
● FL-05: Freshman Rep. Al Lawson won his seat last year by beating scandal-tarred Rep. Corrine Brown, who was later found guilty of fraud and tax evasion, in the Democratic primary for this safely blue redrawn seat. However, Lawson may be in for another competitive primary that pits his Tallahassee-area base against a well-known Jacksonville politician.
Campaign Action
Florida Politics' A.G. Gancarski reports that ex-Jacksonville Mayor Alvin Brown recently told a crowd of local Democrats that he would run for something soon. While Brown doesn't seem to have tipped his hat as to what office he's eyeing, Gancarski writes that he's "been most persistently linked with a run against" Lawson. Brown has told at least one prominent Jacksonville Democrat that he plans to launch a campaign after Corrine Brown is sentenced and out of the news; the former congresswoman is due to be sentenced in November, though she's trying to delay that. (The two Browns don't seem to be related, though Alvin Brown unsuccessfully challenged Corrine Brown in a 1994 primary.)
It's unclear what argument Alvin Brown would make for why primary voters should fire Lawson. While Lawson, a former state Senate minority leader, does have a reputation as moderate, Brown notably refused to endorse Obama's 2012 re-election campaign, and he isn't exactly a progressive hero either. Both Brown and Lawson are also African American men, so that averts a few potential primary fault lines. But geography would likely play a key role if they wound up facing off.
During the 2016 primary, Jacksonville's Duval County made up 48 percent of the vote, and Corrine Brown carried it 62-20; however, she lost the rest of the seat 73-18, leading to her losing the primary 48-39. This time, Lawson would be the incumbent, and he has been trying to make inroads into Duval. Still, if he faced a candidate without Corrine Brown's ethical issues who could avoid being crushed outside of Jacksonville, he may have some problems.
However, that assumes that Brown will be the only credible candidate from Jacksonville. Gancarski also writes that Brown's chances could be hurt if state Sen. Audrey Gibson, who represents part of Jacksonville, runs. It's not clear if Gibson is eyeing this seat, though Gancarski says she didn't reply to a message for comment. Gibson is a longtime ally of Corrine Brown, and she's remained a vocal supporter even after Brown's conviction.
No matter what happens, Lawson may get outspent. Lawson raised little in his 2016 campaign, but that didn't matter much since Corrine Brown also had problems bringing in cash. However, incumbency doesn't seem to have helped Lawson with fundraising. The congressman took in just $36,000 during the third quarter of 2017, and he had only $74,000 in the bank at the end of September. But Alvin Brown raised a strong amount of cash during his unsuccessful 2015 re-election campaign in conservative Jacksonville, where he lost 51-49 to Republican Lenny Curry. We'll see if this goes anywhere, but if Brown is really interested, this could be a primary to watch.
Senate
● AZ-Sen: Ex-Arizona GOP Chair Robert Graham spent many, many, many months considering challenging Sen. Jeff Flake in the primary, but he finally may be in a hurry to decide now that Flake is retiring. Graham told The Hill on Wednesday that he's likely to announce his plans in the next week or so. State Treasurer Jeff DeWit has also been considering, but Graham recently said the two agreed not to both run. Trump and his allies sounded ready to back Graham when he was talking about taking on Flake, but that calculus may have changed now that this is an open seat.
After expressing some interest in a campaign after Flake retired, GOP Rep. Trent Franks definitively said on Thursday he wouldn't run. Rep. David Schweikert, a fellow member of the far-right Freedom Caucus, came just short of ruling out the idea. Schweikert's spokesperson saying that the congressman looks forward to backing the winner of the primary, and adding that he's considering a 2022 run for governor. Schweikert played all sorts of games with us during last cycle's Senate race so we're not going to count him out until he outright says "I'm not running," endorses someone who is, or lets the filing deadline pass, but we can probably pay him little thought from now on.
● FL-Sen: Mason-Dixon takes another look at the likely general election between Democratic Sen. Bill Nelson and GOP Gov. Rick Scott and finds a 44-44 tie. Back in February, they gave Nelson a 46-41 lead. The poll gives both men very similar job approval numbers, with Nelson at 50-35 and Scott at 53-40. Other recent polls have also shown a very tight race. Scott is still publicly undecided about a run, but his new $2 million ad campaign touting his greatness doesn't leave much suspense about his plans.
Gubernatorial
● CO-Gov: The GOP pollster Braynard Group takes a look at a hypothetical Republican primary featuring ex-Rep. Tom Tancredo. The survey, which was obtained by Colorado Politics, gives Tancredo the lead with 22 percent of the vote, well ahead of state Treasurer Walker Stapleton's 9 percent. The survey has suburban Denver District Attorney George Brauchler at 7, Attorney General and prospective candidate Cynthia Coffman at 6, wealthy businessman Victor Mitchell at 1, and investment banker Doug Robinson, a Mitt Romney nephew, rounding to zero.
This is the first poll we've seen here with or without Tancredo. Pollster Matt Braynard did not reveal a client, though his very favorable commentary about Tancredo ("Whether you agree with him or not, you know he believes what he's telling you. He's not trying to snow you or manipulate you. People respect that") makes it sound like he's working with a pro-Tancredo group.
Tancredo, who was a leading anti-immigration zealot when he served in Congress almost a decade ago, now says he hopes to decide by the end of November. Tancredo ran in the 2014 primary and lost to ex-Rep. Bob Beauprez 30-27. Tancredo left the GOP in 2015 but rejoined it recently, and he said a few months ago that he was inspired to consider another run after local Republicans didn't speak out when a resort canceled a white supremacist conference that was scheduled. Braynard also tests Tancredo in a general election with Rep. Jared Polis, one of several Democrats running, and finds the two tied 25-25; with so many undecideds, it's hard to read much into that.
● HI-Gov: While Kauai Mayor Bernard Carvalho had shown some interest in challenging Gov. David Ige in the Democratic primary, he announced this week that he would run for lieutenant governor instead. Interestingly, Maui County Mayor Alan Arakawa, who said in April that Carvalho was "going to run for the governor's office, and he will be probably be the next governor," is also running for lieutenant governor. This is one of the reasons why we wait for the actual politician to declare their plans before we count them as an official candidate rather than let other people do their talking for them. Ige faces a primary with Rep. Colleen Hanabusa, and it looks unlikely that any other notable Democrats will join in.
● MI-Gov: Campaign finance reports from the third quarter are in, and the Democratic primary looks like it will be an expensive affair. Ex-state Senate Minority Leader Gretchen Whitmer, the presumptive frontrunner, raised $768,000 for the quarter and had $1.5 million on-hand. Abdul El-Sayed, the former head of the Detroit Public Health Department, took in $612,000 during this time and had $900,000 in the bank. But the Democrat with the largest war-chest is businessman Shri Thanedar, who is almost entirely self-funding his campaign. Thanedar invested another $2.7 million, and he had $5.67 million on-hand.
On the GOP side, Attorney General Bill Schuette, who has Trump's endorsement, has the most resources. Schuette raised $1.2 million for the quarter between his governor and attorney general account, and had $2.3 million on-hand. Lt. Gov. Brian Calley, who has not yet announced he'll run, raised just $333,000 for the quarter, and had $1.2 million in his lieutenant governor account (which can be transferred to a gubernatorial bid). Physician Jim Hines, who has been self-funding, had only $100,000 on-hand, while state Sen. Patrick Colbeck was in a truly hapless position with only $13,000 in the bank.
● NJ-Gov: Stockton: Phil Murphy (D): 51, Kim Guadagno (R): 37 (Oct.: 51-33 Murphy)
● TX-Gov: On Wednesday, state House Speaker Joe Straus announced that he would not seek re-election next year, but he didn't say no to a possible GOP primary bid against Gov. Greg Abbott. Just after Straus told a news conference that he's "not one to close doors," he added, "I've had people on a daily basis suggest I run for another office." Straus repeatedly said he didn't plan to run for anything in 2018, but refused to actually say no when reporters asked him about taking on Abbott. The filing deadline is Dec. 11.
Straus, who hails from a San Antonio seat, is one of the more moderate elements in the Texas GOP. Straus became speaker after the 2008 elections when the entire Democratic caucus and a few Republicans voted for Straus over Republican Speaker Tom Craddick, and he survived repeated attempts by conservative members to take away his gavel. Straus notably defied Abbott this year when he blocked the anti-LGBT "bathrooms bill" from coming up for a vote, though he's supported him on other issues.
It's unclear how interested Straus really is (the Austin-American Statesman's Jonathan Tilove for one speculates that Straus is "simply giving Abbott and [Lt. Gov. Dan] Patrick something to think about"). However, it's very tough to see him beating Abbott. The governor has the power of incumbency, and he had a massive $41 million war-chest in July. And really, is it even possible to beat a Republican incumbent in a high-profile primary in Texas from the left? We doubt it.
Democrats haven't shown much optimism about denying Abbott a second term, but they at least want a viable candidate to help turn out voters for winnable contests. The Dallas News' Gromer Jeffers Jr. writes that state Democratic operatives are encouraging Michael Sorrell, the president of the historically black school Paul Quinn College, to jump in. When Jeffers asked Sorrell, all he said was "I'm not going to comment on that," which is not a no. Sorrell has run local campaigns in Dallas and been courted to run for office there, but never gone for it. Jeffers writes that Sorrell is less afraid of losing to Abbott and more worried that a campaign would take time away from Paul Quinn. Businessman Andrew White, the son of the late Gov. Mark White, also recently expressed interest.
● VA-Gov: Well, this is a weird one. Hampton University has released a poll of next month's gubernatorial race in Virginia, and they find a sizable lead … for Republican Ed Gillespie, who they have up 41-33 on Democrat Ralph Northam. That makes them the only outfit ever to show Gillespie with a clear advantage, and just the second since the June primaries to put him ahead at all. (In that time, at least 26 polls have been publicly released.)
As with any apparent outlier, Hampton's numbers require scrutiny, and not just because they happen to favor the Republican. (As our readers know, Daily Kos Elections has a long history of picking apart all kinds of polls, including plenty that have looked good for Democrats. Here's just one recent example.) The most startling thing about Hampton's results is the fact that they somehow have Gillespie up 8 points even though Donald Trump is down in the dumps with a miserable 39-56 job approval score while Democratic Gov. Terry McAuliffe has a strong 52-38 rating. Those approvals are similar to what we've seen in other polls, so how could this sort of electorate feel so warmly about Gillespie?
Hampton also had some serious issues with its primary polling—so serious that they were, in fact, disqualifying, which is something we rarely say about polls from established outfits. Back in June, they put out a survey in which they asked 741 voters how they'd vote in the Democratic primary, then asked those same 741 respondents whom they'd support in the Republican primary. Suffice it to say, you simply cannot model an electorate that way, and unsurprisingly, the results turned out to be grossly wrong in both cases.
If some other pollsters suddenly start showing Gillespie with big leads, then that'll be an entirely different story. But even Republicans aren't acting as though that's the case, as Gillespie's latest TV ad continues to push his desperate fear-mongering attacks on Northam about the restoration of voting rights for those who've completed their sentences. And Gillespie himself hasn't released a single poll to counter the two dozen that have found him trailing—or to bolster the lonely two that have him leading. So for now, the most reasonable conclusion is that Hampton is off-base.
House
● ID-01: State Rep. Christy Perry, who represents a Nampa seat, is the latest Republican to express interest in this safely red open seat. A few other Republicans are already running, but all of them have raised just a small amount of money.
● ME-02: While this northern Maine seat swung from 53-44 Obama to 51-41 Trump, Democrats are hoping it will swing back next year and throw GOP Rep. Bruce Poliquin overboard. State Rep. Jared Golden, a Marine veteran, entered the race in late August and raised $104,000 before the end of September, leaving him with $96,000 in the bank. Two other Democrats, bookseller Craig Olson and businessman Jonathan Fulford, raised $79,000 and $68,000, respectively, and they had comparable amounts in the bank. Wealthy conservationist Lucas St. Clair entered the race after the deadline. Poliquin is a strong fundraiser, and he brought in $443,000 for the quarter and had $1.5 million on-hand at the end of September.
● MI-01: Last cycle, Republican Jack Bergman won this open seat battle against former state Democratic Chair Lon Johnson 55-40 as this northern Michigan seat moved from 54-45 Romney to 58-37 Trump. Despite that discouraging showing, ex-Rep. Bart Stupak, who retired in 2010, recently told a local Charlevoix County Democratic Party meeting that Johnson is "thinking about" another try. Johnson does not appear to have said anything publicly yet. Johnson did raise plenty of cash during his unsuccessful bid, but the GOP relentlessly tied him to unpopular national Democrats.
Democrats still do relatively well in local races in the Upper Peninsula, which is entirely located in this district, so this seat may be a plausible target in a better year. It's also worth noting that Dan Benishek, Bergman's Republican predecessor, only won re-election 48.1-47.6 while Romney was easily carrying the seat. Still, given how Trumpy this area is, national Democrats may just decide to focus elsewhere no matter who runs.
Two Democrats have already entered the race, but neither of them has raised much money so far. Retired Marine Lt. Col. Matthew Morgan raised $65,000 during the third quarter and had $90,000 on-hand, while Northern Michigan University professor Dwight Brady had only $23,000 in the bank. Bergman himself took in $118,000 for the quarter and had $171,000 on-hand, not very impressive for an incumbent, but it may be more than enough in a seat this tough.
● MI-06: As longtime GOP Rep. Fred Upton mulls a bid against Democratic Sen. Debbie Stabenow, he's raising money that can either be used for a Senate race or for a re-election campaign to this Kalamazoo-area seat. Upton took in $524,000 from July to September, and he had $1.1 million on-hand. Upton has rarely had to struggle with re-election to this seat, which went from 50-49 Romney to 51-43 Trump, but a few Democrats are running here.
Matt Longjohn, a former YMCA national health officer, took in $197,000 from donors in his opening quarter and self-funded another $16,000, leaving him with $172,000 on the bank. Western Michigan University Professor Paul Clements, who lost to Upton 56-40 in 2014 and 59-36 in 2016, is trying again, but he brought in just $84,000 and had $76,000 on-hand. George Franklin, a former lobbyist for the cereal company Kellogg, entered the race after the deadline.
● MI-07: Last cycle, then-state Rep. Gretchen Driskell challenged GOP Rep. Tim Walberg for a southern Michigan seat that spans the border with Ohio. Driskell raised a serious amount of money but lost 55-40 as the district moved from 51-48 Romney to 56-39 Trump. Driskell is back for another round, and she raised $226,000 for her opening quarter and had the same amount in the bank at the end of September. Walberg raised $252,000 during this time and had $574,000 on-hand.
● MI-08: GOP Rep. Mike Bishop is a strong fundraiser, but former Defense Department official Elissa Slotkin outpaced him in her opening quarter. Slotkin outraised Bishop $451,000 to $363,000, though Bishop maintained a $710,000 to $377,000 cash-on-hand edge over the Democrat. This seat, which includes Lansing and some of Detroit's conservative suburbs, went from 51-48 Romney to 51-44 Trump.
● MI-11: Sophomore GOP Rep. Dave Trott announced in mid-September that he was retiring from this 50-45 Trump suburban Detroit seat, and we'll need to wait until early next year to get a better feel for which GOP candidates are capable of raising enough money for a serious campaign. Businesswoman Lena Epstein left her Senate race behind to run for this seat, and her Senate money can be immediately transferred to a House bid. From July to September, Epstein raised only $123,000 from donors but loaned herself $365,000, and she had $783,000 in the bank. That's not an impressive war-chest for a Senate campaign in Michigan, but it will do for a House race. The only other Republican who began fundraising before the deadline was state Rep. Klint Kesto, who took in $46,000 during his brief time in the race.
On the Democratic side, two candidates have been raising money for what they thought would be a run against Trott. Fayrouz Saad, a former director of immigration affairs for Detroit, raised a credible $251,000 in her first quarter in the race, and she had $184,000 on-hand. Haley Stevens, the former chief of staff to President Obama's 2009 Auto Task Force, has been running since April, and she took in $201,000 for the quarter and had $416,000 on-hand. Two other Democrats, businessman Dan Haberman and state Rep. Tim Greimel, entered the race in October.
● MN-01: Democrats aren't going to have an easy time holding onto this open southern Minnesota seat which swung from 50-48 Obama to 53-38 Trump, but Team Blue has some candidates with a credible amount of money. Former Defense Department official Dan Feehan raised $202,000 in his first quarter in the race, and he had about that amount in the bank. Feehan also was one of a dozen Democrats who received an additional $45,000 from supporters into a special vehicle called the Serve America Victory Fund from a fundraiser organized by Massachusetts Rep. Seth Moulton (see our Fundraising item below for details about why that money is counted separately).
A few other Democrats had about $100,000 in the bank at the end of September. Attorney Joe Sullivan took in $94,000 from donors and self-funded another $30,000, giving him $103,000. Former Army Reserves Judge Advocate General Rich Wright raised just $40,000 but self-funded another $72,000, and he had $98,000 in the bank; Wright badly lost his last two bids for the state legislature. But Vicki Jensen, who lost her state Senate seat last year, had only $7,000 on-hand, while businessman Colin Minehart didn't report raising anything.
On the GOP side, businessman Jim Hagedorn had the field to himself until state Sen. Carla Nelson (who beat Wright last year) jumped in after the Sept. 30 deadline. Hagedorn raised $100,000 for the quarter, and he had $237,000 on-hand. Hagedorn ran for this seat in 2014 and lost to Democratic incumbent Tim Walz 54-46. Hagedorn ran again in 2016 and once again received very little outside help, but he only narrowly lost to Walz, who is now running for governor.
As always, it's good to remember that not all these candidates may be in their party's primary. In Minnesota, both parties hold endorsement conventions months before the primary, and many candidates will drop out if someone else wins the endorsement. And while winning a party endorsement doesn't guarantee victory in a contested primary, it's usually a big asset. The convention delegates often favor candidates who are perceived as more ideologically pure.
● NH-01: Another Democrat is eyeing this open swing seat. Rich DiPentima, a longtime public healthcare official who previously served as deputy public health director for the Manchester health department, tells the Union-Leader he's considering and will take the "next few weeks" before deciding. DiPentima, who like so many people in New Hampshire once served in the state House, is 72, which is pretty old to begin a career in Congress.
● Fundraising: Due to the complexities of federal campaign finance law, fundraising reports filed by candidates can sometimes be a bit opaque without meaning to be. An important example surfaced this past quarter, stemming from a fundraiser last month organized by Massachusetts Rep. Seth Moulton to help a dozen fellow veterans running for the House as Democrats. All of the beneficiaries collectively raised money from supporters into a special vehicle called the Serve America Victory Fund, and after the event, the proceeds were split just about equally between all candidates, netting them an average of $45,000 each.
However, this sum didn't get folded into the line item that reflects normal contributions campaigns receive from donors, which is the first number you see in the "3Q Raised" column in our big quarterly fundraising chart. Rather, each campaign, in its own quarterly report, listed their take as a "transfer" from another committee, which it in fact was.
Transfers aren't terribly common: Less than 10 percent of the candidates appearing on our third-quarter chart reported a material one. They also typically involve transfers of money from an old fundraising committee to a new one, so they don't usually reflect current fundraising strength. (You can find all transfers in the last column of this spreadsheet.) For instance, Colorado Republican Darryl Glenn somehow had $233,000 left over from his failed Senate campaign last year that he just shifted to an account for his current bid for the House—old wine in a new bottle, as it were.
That's not always the case, though, as the Serve America fundraiser shows. This was money these campaigns humped to raise themselves, and did so very recently. As such, it's reasonable to view these particular transfers as part of each campaign's traditional fundraising totals. Thus, someone like Jason Crow, who is running in Colorado's 6th Congressional District, really raised $219,000 for the quarter: $174,000 directly to his own committee, and another $45,000 via the Moulton event. The same is true for all of the other candidates involved in the fundraiser, a full list of which you can find here.
Grab Bag
● Statehouse Action: This Week in Statehouse Action: Little Capitol of Horrors edition is full of chills and thrills and holiday-appropriate horror movie references! Special elections continue to spook Republicans, the Virginia GOP is furthering its fear-mongering, and North Carolina lawmakers are definitely things that go bump in the night.
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