The Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir, Jeff Singer, Stephen Wolf, and Carolyn Fiddler, with additional contributions from David Jarman, Steve Singiser, Daniel Donner, James Lambert, David Beard, and Arjun Jaikumar.
Leading Off
● NY-11: Now that the new fundraising quarter covering the period of Oct. 1 to Dec. 31 has begun, we should expect a spate of candidate announcements. Ex-Rep. Mike Grimm kicked things off on Sunday when he announced that he would challenge his successor, Rep. Dan Donovan, in the GOP primary for this Staten Island seat. Grimm, who stepped down in early 2015 on tax evasion charges and served seven months in jail, apologized for his past actions, but he quickly began tying himself to Donald Trump.
Grimm also quickly went after the incumbent, telling the crowd that Donovan is "a nice guy, right? A bit of a sweetheart. But let me tell you something: He's never going to get anything done, not ever," adding, "And in Washington, nice guys finish last." And whatever else you may think about Mike Grimm, you can not say he's a sweetheart. In 2014, Grimm threatened a TV reporter after the State of the Union, declaring that he would "break you in half. Like a boy." And yes, the camera was rolling.
Donovan, a former Staten Island district attorney, has the support of the island's GOP power players. The head of the state Conservative Party, which usually supports GOP candidates in general elections, also said he was for Donovan. However, despite, or maybe even because of, his troubled history, Grimm very well may be able to beat the incumbent. Back in 2014, after Grimm was indicted, national Republicans abandoned this race, and Grimm's fundraising quickly dried up. However, while national Democrats spent heavily here, Grimm decisively won re-election against a flawed Democratic foe. Grimm always maintained that the Obama Justice Department was unfairly targeting him, an argument that struck a chord in a community where plenty of voters believe they've been neglected by their city, local, and national governments.
Grimm built up a cult of personality by stoking this resentment, and that cult may very well live on. The New York Times' Shane Goldmacher quoted one Grimm supporter on Sunday saying that, while it was wrong for Grimm to underreport his employee's wages at his restaurant and to file false tax documents, "He did his time. Every business does that. He was made an example of." It's probably too much for Donovan to hope that this is an isolated opinion. Daily Kos Elections community member Taget was at the event, and he has some very interesting and smart observations that are very worth checking out.
Grimm also has some other things going for him. At Grimm's event, many of the assembled spoke well of Grimm's response to Hurricane Sandy, which hit the area hard in 2012. Donovan also notably voted against the House version of Trumpcare, a decision he may be regretting in a seat where Trump performed extremely well in the presidential primary. (Trump carried Staten Island 81-10 against John Kasich.) Indeed, Grimm labeled Donovan a "liberal Democrat" in an interview in late August, declaring, "Whether it's going against the president on the health-care vote; whether it's going against the president on the Sanctuary City vote; whether it's all his anti-Second Amendment bills. These are all Democrat positions and he's been down the line on those positions, and that's a problem."
Grimm also simply seems more adapt at speaking the conservative language in the age of Trump than the much more low-key Donovan. At his kickoff, Grimm referenced Trump's fight with black NFL players by declaring before the national anthem began, "I know no one here is going to be taking a knee." Still, Donovan's team tried to flip the script and portray Grimm as the one who's out of touch with Trump and the GOP. Grimm's spokesperson argued that Grimm "lied to his constituents, then quit and left them in the lurch with no representation under President Obama" and "he had one of the most liberal voting records of all Congressional Republicans. Either way, voters can't trust Michael Grimm and we're trying to drain the swamp, not make it murkier."
This seat, which includes all of Staten Island and a part of Brooklyn, backed Obama 52-47 after Sandy, but it aggressively swung to Trump 54-44 last year. Several Democrats are running here, and there's no clear frontrunner yet. Donovan himself earned national notoriety in 2014 when, as district attorney, he declined to bring charges in the Eric Garner police brutality case. That wasn't much of a liability for him at the ballot box, however, and he easily won both the 2015 special election to succeed Grimm and last year's regular election.
Democrats may benefit from having a scandal-tarred loose cannon like Grimm as the GOP nominee, but that's not at all a given. Grimm proved in 2014 that he has a cult-like following, and if this seat is in play next year, Team Blue may prefer to face someone more generic like Donovan. No matter what happens next year, though, we know this primary will be anything but boring.
3Q 2017 Fundraising
The third quarter of 2017 has just come to a close, and federal candidates are obligated to file fundraising reports with the FEC by Oct. 15. In the meantime, many campaigns will pre-emptively share summaries of their fundraising hauls, which we collect here.
● VA-07: Dan Ward (D): $263,000 raised
● WA-08: Kim Schrier (D): $270,000 raised (in seven weeks)
● WI-01: Randy Bryce (D): $1 million raised, $1 million cash-on-hand
Senate
● AL-Sen: Democrats are facing a familiar conundrum: A special election featuring a lousy Republican candidate is underway, but on turf that may once again prove too conservative for the party to have a chance. That's the situation in Alabama, where not only do Democrats face the uniquely awful Roy Moore, but their own candidate, former U.S. Attorney Doug Jones, is easily the best they've put up for the Senate in ages. But do national party groups like the DSCC jump on a long shot and risk nationalizing the race in a way that would actually hurt Jones, or do are they better off stepping to the side and letting Jones lead the way?
It's possible that door no. 2 might not be the worst option. Tucked down in the 15th paragraph of new article exploring this issue, the New York Times reports that Jones has raised a hefty $820,000 in just the last week, when Moore defeated Sen. Luther Strange in the GOP runoff. If Jones can keep the cash flowing from progressive organizations and individuals who are incensed by Moore, then he might wind up with the resources he needs without having to rely on outside groups.
Still, though, Republicans will tar Jones as a liberal no matter what Chuck Schumer does, so maybe all-in is the right choice. It's very hard to say, but you can bet that the DSCC has already been polling to see what the best path is.
● TN-Sen: Gov. Bill Haslam is one of several Republicans who are eyeing this open seat, but one prominent conservative organization is hoping to ward him off. The anti-tax Club for Growth, which is frequently a thorn in the side of the GOP establishment in primaries, took issue with Haslam's unsuccessful attempt to expand Medicaid, declaring that Haslam is "cut from the same cloth" as Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, as well as retiring Sen. Bob Corker and Sen. Lamar Alexander, adding that, "Any governor that supports Medicaid expansion is not going to be a candidate that will be well-received in a GOP primary." It's not clear which potential candidates the Club likes.
Meanwhile, as Democrats begin to consider (and reconsider) their options, there's one major name we haven't yet heard from: Grammy Award-winning singer and songwriter Tim McGraw, who is married to fellow country music superstar Faith Hill. Or have we?
It's no accident that McGraw, 37, has turned his professional obligation into a campaign whistle-stop. "I love politics," he says on the way back to his dressing room. "I love Bill Clinton. I think we should make him king. I'm talking the red robe, the turkey leg—everything." Then, because such things must be floated carefully and modestly, McGraw adds, "I want to run for the Senate from Tennessee. Not now, but when I'm 50, when music dies down a little bit. I know lots of artists and actors have those delusions of grandeur, but ever since I was a kid, it's been of interest to me."
That article was written 13 years ago, and McGraw is now … 50. And there also just happens to be open Senate seat in his home state. It was McGraw's also-famous father, Tug, the major league relief pitcher who coined the famous phrase "Ya Gotta Believe!" about the 1973 New York Mets, a once-beleaguered team that went from last place on Aug. 30 all the way to the World Series that fall. Is it time for Tennessee Democrats to believe again? Someone should check in with Tim McGraw.
● WV-Sen: Gov. Jim Justice, who switched from the Democratic Party to the GOP over the summer, made news last month when he appeared to endorse Democratic Sen. Joe Manchin's re-election bid. However, Justice said on Friday that he probably won't endorse anyone for a while, saying that he works with Manchin in his role as governor as well as the two main GOP candidates, Attorney General Patrick Morrisey and Rep. Evan Jenkins.
Gubernatorial
● CT-Gov: Until this week, we'd never heard state Commissioner of the Department of Veterans Affairs Sean Connolly mentioned as a possible Democratic candidate for this open seat. However, Connolly announced on Friday that he was stepping down from his post, and while he only said he was leaving "to pursue other professional opportunities," the CT Mirror's Mark Pazniokas writes that Connolly has been talking to Democrats about a possible run. A number of other Democrats are eyeing this race, and there's no early frontrunner.
● MI-Gov: Retiring Rep. Dave Trott has thrown his support behind Attorney General Bill Schuette in the GOP primary.
● NE-Gov: While GOP Gov. Pete Ricketts faces a challenge from state Sen. Bob Krist, a former Republican running as an independent, no notable Democrats have shown any interest in running here. It's possible that none will: While Nebraska Democratic Chair Jane Kleeb says that Team Blue will field a candidate, she was very open to the possibility that the eventual nominee could drop out and become Krist's running mate, which would allow Krist to take up Democratic support without running as a Democrat in this very red state.
Kleeb didn't commit to anything, but she told the Omaha World-Herald that "land[ing] a strong bipartisan ticket that mirrored our Legislature, I think that would be very good for Nebraska." However, to pull off this maneuver, Democrats will need to make sure a willing candidate makes it through the primary. A few local Democrats, including state Sen. Burke Harr, also argued that not fielding a candidate would not be good for the party.
● SC-Gov: After spending months considering a bid for the GOP nomination, ex-South Carolina Secretary of Commerce Joe Taylor has instead endorsed Catherine Templeton. Templeton, a former director of the Department of Health and Environmental Control, looks like Gov. Henry McMaster's main opponent in the primary, though Lt. Gov. Kevin Bryant is also running.
House
● AZ-09: With Democratic Rep. Kyrsten Sinema running for the Senate, Team Red has an outside shot to flip this Tempe-area seat, which shifted from 51-47 Obama to 55-38 Clinton. National Republicans are reportedly excited about retired Navy physician Steve Ferrara, but local conservative radio host Seth Leibsohn has also jumped into the primary.
● FL-18: Last cycle, Republican Brian Mast decisively won an open seat race for this Treasure Coast seat as this district was moving from 51-48 Romney to 53-44 Trump, and Team Blue is hoping to give him a tough race before he can become entrenched. Lauren Baer, who served in the Obama State Department, announced that she was running on Monday. However, Baer quietly began raising money in August, and she also announced that she had raised $250,000 from donors by Sept. 30. Baer was a senior policy advisor to both Secretaries of State John Kerry and Hillary Clinton and to U.N. Ambassador Samantha Power, and her family also owns and operates the local company Baer Furniture.
● ME-02, ME-Gov: Businessman Lucas St. Clair, a conservationist and the son of prominent philanthropist Roxanne Quimby, announced on Monday that he would seek the Democratic nod to challenge GOP Rep. Bruce Poliquin. St. Clair, who had expressed interest in running for governor last year, is a native of the 2nd District but currently lives in Portland in the 1st, though he says he's moving to Hampden back in the 2nd.
As Maine Public's Steve Mistler explains, St. Clair made news last year for his role in successfully creating the Katahdin Woods and Waters National Monument near Millinocket, which is located in this seat. Back in 2004, Quimby's non-profit, Elliotsville Plantation, had purchased about 100,000 acres of former timberland with the intention of creating a national park. However, nearby residents were not happy when Quimby closed off the land to hunting, snowmobiling, and timber production. With locals upset and Maine's congressional delegation showing no support, the project stalled for years.
But in 2013, St. Clair became the head of Elliotsville Plantation and helped turn public opinion around. Notably St. Clair, whom Mistler describes as "[a]n avid sportsman and fly fishing guide," announced that hunting and ATV riding would be allowed on part of the property. In 2016, with local residents now far more supportive, Barack Obama announced that he was designating the land as a national monument. However, GOP Gov. Paul LePage has been trying to convince Trump to rescind the designation, and Secretary of the Interior Ryan Zinke has recommended that Trump open the land up to commercial forestry.
St. Clair is close to Maine's conservation groups, and he's reportedly wealthy. However, when he was asked how much of his own money he plans to invest, he just said, "That remains to be seen," adding that he'll seek as many small donations as possible. This rural northern Maine seat swung from 53-44 Obama to 51-41 Trump, but Democrats are hoping that Poliquin is beatable. State Rep. Jared Golden, an Iraq and Afghanistan veteran, is already seeking the Democratic nod; businessman Jonathan Fulford, who lost close races to state Senate President Mike Thibodeau in both 2014 and 2016, is also in.
● MN-01, MN-Gov: On Monday, GOP state Sen. Carla Nelson announced that she would seek this open southern Minnesota seat. Nelson, who had also talked about running for governor, earned an endorsement at her campaign kickoff from state Rep. Nels Pierson, who had been considering running himself until now.
This district, which includes Rochester and Mankato, swung from 50-48 Obama to 53-38 Trump, and Team Red is optimistic that they can flip it with Democratic Rep. Tim Walz leaving to run for governor. Nelson herself has also run well in a competitive state Senate seat over the last two presidential cycles. In 2012, Nelson won re-election 56-44 as Obama was winning her Rochester district 50-47. Four years later, as Trump was winning her seat 46-45, Nelson was re-elected 56-44. National Republicans reportedly encouraged Nelson to run for Congress; however, state Republicans were afraid that they'd lose Nelson's district and their one-seat Senate majority if she was elected to the House, and they reportedly wanted her to stay put.
Nelson doesn't have a clear shot at the GOP nod. Jim Hagedorn, who was the GOP nominee against Walz during the last two cycles, has been running for a while. In 2014, Hagedorn beat the national GOP's preferred candidate in the primary, and they gave his underfunded general election campaign little help as he lost to Walz 54-46. In 2016, neither party showed any interest in this race, but Hagedorn only lost to Walz 50.3-49.6. This time, Minnesota Republicans are showing more interest in Hagedorn: Rep. Tom Emmer, who is also an NRCC deputy, endorsed him in April.
● MN-02: Former healthcare executive Angie Craig, who narrowly lost to Republican Rep. Jason Lewis last year, has rolled out a big batch of endorsements from prominent Minnesota Democrats who are supporting her bid for a rematch. The top names include Sen. Al Franken and Reps. Rick Nolan and Tim Walz, along with a host of other state lawmakers, unions, and progressive organizations. Craig shouldn't have too much of a problem winning her party's nomination again: The only other Democrat running, high school football coach Jeff Erdmann, raised less than $30,000 in the second quarter of the year. Craig entered the race later and hasn't filed any fundraising reports yet, but we'll have third quarter numbers for both candidates by Oct. 15.
● NJ-07: Several Democrats are already running against fifth-term GOP Rep. Leonard Lance in New Jersey's 7th District, but on Monday, a new—and potentially more prominent—name joined them: Tom Malinowski, a former assistant secretary of state under Barack Obama who also spent over a decade as a director of Human Rights Watch. (He's even got his own detailed Wikipedia page, which is atypical for first-time House candidates.) Malinowski is hoping to contrast his career as an advocate and diplomat who's "stood up to dictators" with Donald Trump's catastrophically thuggish foreign policy, if you can even call it that.
But before he can get to Lance, Malinowski will first have to square off against the current field of Democrats, which includes two candidates who've already reported raising over six figures, teacher Lisa Mandelblatt and bank executive Linda Weber. It'll be a while before we get to see Malinowski's fundraising chops, though, since he won't have to file his first fundraising report until next year (Weber, Mandelblatt and the rest will have to do so by Oct. 15).
Lance himself, however, doesn't have an especially dominant bankroll: He pulled in $250,000 in the second quarter of the year, which is pretty meh for an incumbent, and had $351,000 in cash left over. And as what passes for a "moderate" in today's bonkers GOP, Lance is liable to face yet another primary challenge—something he's had to deal with every single cycle since he was first elected. He's also not particularly good at them: Lance has never won a primary with more than 61 percent of the vote, and last year, he escaped with less than 54 percent, a shabby showing that could prophesy doom in this age of off-the-wall Trump-induced rage.
Speaking of Trump, there's also the matter of this district's sharp swing to the left. In 2016, Hillary Clinton narrowly carried the 7th by about a point (48.6 to 47.5), after Mitt Romney had won a much more comfortable 52-46 victory there four years earlier, and Lance himself only won re-election 54-43 against an unheralded and underfunded foe. Could 2018 finally be the year that Lance gets done in, either by his own party or his opponents? It very well could be.
● SC-01: Over the weekend, Charleston County GOP Chairman Larry Kobrovsky expressed interest in challenging iconoclastic Rep. Mark Sanford in the primary, though he said he wouldn't announce anything until after a local state House special election on Nov. 7. Kobrovsky ran for this Charleston-area seat in 2010 and took fourth place in the crowded primary with 11 percent of the vote. Kobrovsky described his differences with Sanford, who is one of Trump's louder intra-party critics, as "not personal," but added that now isn't the time for a "philosopher king." Sanford already faces a primary challenge against state Rep. Katie Arrington; if no one takes a majority, there will be a runoff. Trump won 54-40 here.
● UT-04: Last cycle, GOP Rep. Mia Love won her second term 54-41 against a credible Democratic opponent as Trump was beating Clinton 39-32 here, with conservative independent Evan McMullin grabbing 22 percent. Until recently, no notable Democrats showed much interest in challenging Love, but over the weekend, Salt Lake County Mayor Ben McAdams told The Salt Lake Tribune that he was "seriously considering" getting in. While McAdams lives outside the 4th, he accurately pointed out that about 85 percent of the district's residents live in Salt Lake County. Last year, McAdams won re-election against a GOP foe 59-41, running ahead of Clinton's 42-33 win in the county (McMullin took 19 percent).
This district has been tough to get a good read on. In 2012, Love gave Democratic Rep. Jim Matheson his first serious challenge in years, and it looked like Mitt Romney's strong performance in Utah would put her over the top. However, while Romney carried this seat 67-30, Matheson pulled off a tight 48.9-48.5 win. Matheson decided to retire in 2014, and for almost a year, it seemed that Love would win this seat without much of a fight. However, Democrat Doug Owens kept things unexpectedly close during the GOP wave and lost just 51-46.
Democrats were determined not to overestimate Love in 2016, and Owens ran again. However, outside Democratic groups only spent modestly in the face of bad polling, and Love prevailed by double digits. Love may have finally won over voters who were skeptical of her in the past now that she's the incumbent, but if 2018 shapes up to be a good year for Team Blue, a strong Democratic candidate could have an opening.
● WA-08: Issaquah City Councilor Tola Marts, a Democrat, announced on Monday he was dropping out of the race for this swing seat. Marts had begun campaigning months before GOP Rep. Dave Reichert decided to retire, but he raised very little money.
Mayoral
● New Orleans, LA Mayor: The Oct. 14 jungle primary to replace termed-out Mayor Mitch Landrieu is coming up quick, but two new polls have two very different reads on the race. Market Research Insight, which as usual is polling on behalf of several businesspeople, shows ex-Judge Michael Bagneris, who badly lost to Landrieu in 2014, taking first with 33 percent of the vote. Desiree Charbonnet, another former judge, leads City Councilor LaToya Cantrell 30-23 for the second spot in the November runoff. (All three candidates are Democrats.) Just two weeks ago, MRI found a tight three-way race; however, they say that Bagneris' supporters are considerably less committed to their candidate than Charbonnet and Cantrell's are to theirs, so any Bagneris gains could prove to be temporary.
However, the local firm Clarus Research Group, polling for The Advocate and the station WWL-TV, finds something completely different. They give Cantrell the lead with 27 percent, while Charbonnet leads Bagneris 26-19 for the other runoff spot. Landrieu has not endorsed anyone yet, though he doesn't sound inclined at all to support Bagneris. Rep. Cedric Richmond, who represents most of New Orleans in Congress, unsurprisingly endorsed Charbonnet recently.
Grab Bag
● International Digest: Chancellor Angela Merkel's center-right Christian Democratic Union party won a fourth consecutive term in power in Germany. However, the Alternative for Germany party's historic 13 percent of the vote will see the far-right enter parliament for the first time in many decades. The center-left Social Democrats quit the so-called "grand coalition" with arch-rival Merkel after their 21 percent was the party's worst result in post-World War II history. Merkel will consequently have to seek new coalition partners with the center-right Free Democratic Party and the center-left Greens. Check out this story and more in the October edition of the Daily Kos International Elections Digest.
