Election Day in Virginia is a week away, and it’s time to drop the hottest election take possible: predictions for Democratic gains in the House of Delegates.
All 100 districts in Virginia’s lower chamber are on the ballot, and while they have to contend with the statewide races for governor, lieutenant governor, and attorney general for oxygen (attention, money, etc.), they’re one of the main electoral events on Nov. 7. Democrats’ ability to make gains here will be a major test of the party’s broader electoral strength in the Trump era.
And Virginia Democrats certainly have plenty of room for gains in the state House. Currently, they hold only 34 seats to the GOP’s 66. In a state that has favored Democrats statewide in 2016 (Hillary Clinton by a 50-44 margin), 2014 (Sen. Mark Warner by 49-48), 2013 (Gov. Terry McAuliffe by 48-45, Lt. Gov. Ralph Northam by 55-45, and Attorney General Mark Herring ... by 165 votes), and 2012 (Barack Obama by 51-48 and Sen. Tim Kaine by 53-48), the fact that Democrats hold barely one-third of state House seats seems … odd, to say the least.
The GOP’s expert gerrymander of the House of Delegates is the main cause of this disparity, but another factor has limited Democrats’ ability to make significant inroads against the Republican majority in recent elections: a dearth of candidates. In 2015, only 21 Democratic challengers took on incumbent Republican lawmakers in the House. This year, it’s a completely different story: Democrats are running in 54 of the GOP’s 66 seats. With only 12 unchallenged Republicans, Republican resources are spread thinner this cycle than they’ve ever been in modern Virginia political history. (On the flip side of the equation, only six Democratic lawmakers are facing Republican challengers, and of those, only three are considered “serious” in terms of dollars raised and the partisan voting propensities of the districts.)
Democrats need to flip 17 seats to win a majority in the Virginia House. That’s an almost inconceivable success rate for a single legislative chamber in a single night—without even beginning to take into consideration factors like gerrymandering. Coincidentally, Republicans currently occupy 17 House districts that Hillary Clinton won in last fall’s presidential election, but expecting Democrats to flip all of those seats is unrealistic for a couple of key reasons.
First, the off-off-year (odd year) electorate in Virginia is different than the presidential-year or even the midterm-year electorates—and historically, considerably worse for Democrats. Just look at the struggles Democrats have had trying to win state House seats in the recent past. Despite the statewide strength the party showcased with Obama’s victory in 2008, House Democrats lost a net of six seats in the 2009 elections and then lost another seven seats in 2011—just one year before Obama won Virginia a second time. In 2013, Virginia House Democrats picked up a single seat, and in 2015, Democrats netted just one more before Clinton delivered yet another statewide victory for Democrats the following year. Gerrymandering and overall political climate of course have played a role in each of these elections, but it’s reasonable to conclude that these numbers would have been improved with presidential-year turnout.
Second, the power of incumbency is real. Only three of the “Clinton 17” districts are open seats. Republican lawmakers in the other 14 districts have name recognition and existing records of constituent service on their side—and that’s to say nothing of their inherent fundraising advantage, too. These 14 Republicans started the cycle with existing campaign war chests, and their relationships with lobbyists, special interest groups, and moneyed donors make the task of fundraising intrinsically easier. Consequently, Republican incumbents continue to boast higher cash-on-hand totals.
But Democratic challengers haven’t gotten left in the fundraising dust—far from it, actually. As an example, take Democratic challenger Karrie Delaney’s performance in the most recent fundraising period: She came in eighth in terms of cash-on-hand. Additionally, seven of the top 10 fundraisers were also Democratic challengers—just as they had been in the previous reporting period.
Yeah, yeah, yeah. Enough numbers. I promised you predictions, and predictions you shall have.
I began privately handicapping the Virginia House of Delegates races after the primary election dust cleared in mid-June. At the time, based on the strength of the candidates and Democratic performance in Trump-era special elections, I anticipated a four to eight-seat pickup for Team Blue (and a pickup of four seats is nothing to sneeze at; the last time Virginia House Democrats netted that many flips was 2007). But candidate strength and $2 will get you a cup of coffee at Starbucks and not much else.
Over the course of the summer and fall, I evaluated fundraising numbers, field program strength, polling data, paid media programs, and any other info I could get my hands on (such as this marvelous visualization from the Virginia Public Access Project that estimates absentee ballot requests by county and region compared to 2013). Additionally, I analyzed the few Democrats facing serious Republican opponents, and I feel secure in predicting that all Democratic incumbents will win re-election. Daily Kos endorsed nine House candidates, and while I hope all nine will win, my official prediction is now in the range of five to eight pickups. If you hold a match to my comic book collection and force me to nail down a number, I’m going to go with six. Here’s where and why:
- Districts 2 & 42. Both of these seats became open when the incumbent Republican retired. House District 2 gave McAuliffe 53.5 percent of the vote in 2013, and Clinton won it with 57.9 percent last fall. In House District 42, McAuliffe won 51 percent, and Clinton won 58.8 percent. Both races feature Democratic women candidates with strong personal narratives, and both candidates are outraising their GOP opponents to a rather extreme degree. If Democrats don’t flip these two seats, all bets are off and Democrats are in for a terrible, horrible, no good, very bad night. But smart money is on Democrats picking up both districts.
- Districts 12, 13, 31, 32 & 67. These races aren’t going to be easy wins, but based on a combination of fundraising and candidate strength, paid media and field programs, and maybe a little insider intel, I think Democrats will win at least three of these five, and a sweep of all five is not outside the realm of possibility. Flipping District 31 would send Virginia’s first Latina lawmaker to Richmond. And unseating the extreme bigot who currently represents District 13 would be satisfying beyond words.
- Districts 21, 40, 51 & 72. These are longer shots for a variety of reasons, with historic performance and fundraising strength at the top of the list. Some of them (e.g., Districts 51 and 72) have barely been contested for the past decade, if at all. But these races are nevertheless likely to be extremely close either way, and it’s fair to expect several of them to be won or lost by 500 votes or fewer.
- Bonus sleeper race: District 85. Cheryl Turpin is running one of the strongest campaigns of the cycle, but she’s doing it in a district that’s historically unfriendly to Democrats, and it’s definitely outside of the Clinton 17. Turpin is vying to unseat 10-month incumbent Rocky Holcomb in this Virginia Beach seat that Trump carried by less than half a point. Turpin is also a returning candidate; she ran here in a special election this past January and lost this traditionally Republican seat by a surprisingly small margin. If Turpin flips this seat, all bets are off in the best way, and the total number of Democratic pickups could rise into double digits.
These are the districts I’ll be watching most closely next Tuesday night. But the remainder of the Clinton 17 are worth keeping an eye on, too. Districts 10, 50, 68, 73, 94, and 100 are by no means unwinnable; I’m just placing them in tier of longer-shot contests. Perhaps the stars will align and the dramatic trend of Democratic special election over-performances will bleed into Virginia’s general election. And Republicans are clearly spooked: Ugly, bigoted, and racist campaign communications have reared their heads in a number races that present key Democratic pickup opportunities, like Districts 13, 31, and 51. In District 12, the Republican incumbent is running away from his own party. Does this level of GOP fear and loathing on the campaign trail mean Democrats will win all of these seats? It’s impossible to say, but these Republican campaign tactics are not symptoms of electoral confidence.
