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After special counsel Robert Mueller delivered an air-tight but collusion-free legal indictment Monday of Donald Trump's former campaign chair Paul Manafort, Trump offered his verdict via Twitter in all caps, see, "there is NO COLLUSION!" Take that, Mueller!
Then Mueller dropped the hammer with the collusion-rich plea agreement of former Trump campaign adviser George Papadopoulos. It was as if Mueller had served up a tasty bit of cheese and Trump, with the immediate gratification impulses of a rat, came out to feast.
In fact, if there's one takeaway from the unfolding of events Monday, it's just how small Donald Trump really is when he's competing within the legal framework of our country instead of the political one. Trump has a phone, a digital platform, and a lot of anger at the disposal of his deteriorating mind. Mueller has the law, the judicial system, and a wealth of institutional knowledge at the ready of what appears to be a commanding mind. Shouting "NO COLLUSION" at the Constitution and all its legal descendants is like yelling at an army in a firefight to stand down as bullets whiz past them. Useless.
As Susan Hennessey and Benjamin Wittes write at Lawfare blog.
Mueller’s opening bid is a remarkable show of strength. He has a cooperating witness from inside the campaign’s interactions with the Russians. And he is alleging not mere technical infractions of law but astonishing criminality on the part of Trump’s campaign manager, a man who also attended the Trump Tower meeting.
Of course, there’s not just one conclusion from Monday, there’s plenty. Here’s a few more.
The timeline works against Team Trump
Even a short barebones timeline looks incriminating:
March 19—Clinton aide John Podesta’s email gets hacked
March 31—Papadopoulos attends a “national security meeting,” says he has contacts in Russia
April 26—In a meeting with Papadopoulos, Russians tell him they have “thousands of emails” containing “dirt” on Hillary Clinton
June 7—Trump promises to deliver a "major speech" on Hillary Clinton
June 9—Russian officials and Trump’s senior campaign staff meet in Trump Tower
July 27—Donald Trump issues a plea to Russians to steal Hillary Clinton’s email
The remarkable similarities between Russia's Papadopoulos and Don Jr. approach
There's a Russian cut out—someone lower down the Kremlin food chain who upon further review definitely has ties to Vladimir Putin. There's an approach and offering of “dirt” on Hillary Clinton that can benefit the Trump campaign. There's a Trump campaign aide who's very receptive and accepts the meeting.
The campaign aide later lies about the details and substance of the meeting.
The Papadopoulos meeting appears to be a testing ground for how well received the Russian come on would be by someone even closer to Trump. Very well received, in fact.
The nation's top law enforcement official is in trouble
The March 31, 2016, “national security meeting” Trump tweeted about is a major problem for both Trump and Attorney General Jeff Sessions.
“The indictment says Papadopoulos attended a ‘national security meeting’ about March 31 with ‘Trump and other foreign policy advisers for the campaign,” Aaron Blake notes. “It says Papadopoulos told ‘the group’ that he had connections and could arrange a Trump-Putin meeting. The text doesn’t technically say whether Trump was present when this claim was made. But if he was, it would render Trump’s own denials of his campaign’s contact with Russia pretty dishonest.”
At least in the short-term, this has more immediate implications for Sessions, since he gave sworn testimony that he was “not aware” of any communications between the Russians and the campaign.
White House aides and former campaign staff are “freaking out”
Yep. “The walls are closing in.” Here’s why:
“Mueller's team controlled the selection of facts in the Papadoupolous plea. Three messages, at least, shaped their choice,” author and former Post reporter Barton Gellman explained in a series of tweets: “One: Mueller knows things, some of them about Russia, and has proof. He's warning other campaign witnesses against perjury. Two: He's not saying exactly what he knows or how. Uncertainty there inspires dread, may flush out evidence he doesn't even know about. Three: Early cooperation will save you from the worst. Mueller could have taken a lot harsher approach to the Papadopoulos facts. Classic leverage … He may know what you're hiding. He'll scorch you & yours if you lie. Spill and he'll go easier. Don't wait too long.”
It’s not over till it’s over
If you’re like a lot of people, you felt some measure of hope for the first time in a long time as the events of Monday unfolded. A word of caution now.
Trump is so hobbled in the legal realm that he may yet try to return this discussion to the political realm. That’s a serious problem, since Trump’s supporters and conservative media are convinced that “none of this is real” and the real scandal is still Hillary Clinton.