#RBPi (#RESIST-by-Plugging-in) diaries expand awareness that:
- When the government is run by oil interests and global-warming deniers, switching to a Plug-in vehicle (a.k.a. electric car or EV) becomes a direct, effective act of #Resistance.
- On the merits, EVs are viable and increasingly attractive in many segments of the US new and used auto market.
If you are serious about resisting, have a car, and you haven’t plugged in yet, I hope to help you move ahead in the inevitable path to electrification, sooner rather than later. Because #Resist.
Launched with a whimper?
Back in 2010 when Nissan launched the Leaf, it was miles ahead of everyone else in the midmarket-price EV scene. But by the time it got around to launch Leaf Gen 2 seven years later, Nissan has been leapfrogged by GM and Tesla, with both competitors already delivering 200-plus mile, midmarket-oriented EVs.
And that’s before the official Gen 2 Leaf September reveal, which confirmed that the 2018 Leaf comes with a 40 kilowatt-hour battery — good for 150ish miles average range, at best. Substantially less than the Chevy Bolt and Tesla Model 3.
Loser right out of the gate? To many American drivers and auto journalists, yes. But the smart money is actually on the Gen 2 Leaf being a winner. And I agree.
Why? Follow me…
Head-to-head: Bolt, Model 3, Leaf
Let’s compare the three on key metrics, as we know them today. Definitions:
- Range (miles) — average range per EPA, far and away the most realistic and reliable estimate (as long as Pruitt doesn’t destroy this as well)
- MSRP ($k) — base price of a version that includes a quick-charge (QC) port, is not limited to a single color, and inclusive of un-waivable surcharges.
- Cargo (cu.ft.) — with rear seats up
- Availability (quarter) — when nationwide deliveries to non-employee customers begin
Question mark indicates a number not yet reliably known.
I start with the shorter-range version of each car.
Car |
chevy bolt |
tesla Model 3 |
nissan Leaf |
range |
238 |
220? |
150? |
msrp |
38.2 |
37.2 |
31.5 |
availability |
2017Q3 |
2018Q2? |
2018Q1 |
form |
Micro-crossover!? |
Sedan |
Hatchback |
Seats |
5 |
5 |
5 |
cargo volume |
17 |
15 |
24 |
Quick Leaf-focused highlights:
- Vs. the other 2, the Leaf offers more car with much less range, for much less money.
- The Leaf is actually beating the 220-mile version of the Tesla Model 3 to market. This is because, in opposite fashion to Nissan, Tesla decided to kick off with its pricier longer-range trim.
When you consider that the $7.5k Fed rebate is still relevant for the Leaf for the coming year-plus, that most leading EV states offer an additional $2-3k, and that Nissan has perfected the art of the Leaf Lease Deal (Nissan factors the Fed discount into the lease, b/c the Feds give it directly to them) — those 150-mile Leaf leases will be a viable financial option even for the lower middle class. Right out of the gate.
By the way, GM dealers have finally caught onto the secret to selling EVs not named Tesla: heavy discounts off the intimidating MSRP, and Fed-rebate-driven leases. The cheapest current Bolt lease is a Leaf-like $2600 down and $95/month for 3 years, offered in Massachusetts. Deals nearly as good are available elsewhere. September US Bolt sales topped 2600, with sales increasing every single month since February. It’s a great car, so if its size works for you (and it should work for a huge chunk of the population) do check it out, and don’t forget to bargain. 238 miles!
Speaking of which: Nissan does plan a >200-mile version for the Gen 2, starting the 2019 model. here’s the longer-range version stats head-to-head.
Car |
chevy bolt |
tesla Model 3 |
nissan Leaf |
range |
238 |
310? |
225? |
MSRP |
38.2 |
46-51 |
35-38? |
availability |
2017Q3 |
2017Q4? |
2018Q4? |
You may note that the Bolt’s numbers are identical to the above… it doesn’t have this dual-version thing. Also, the Leaf’s top-range version (and guesstimated price) is similar to the other two’s bottom version. Except for having far more space.
tesla Model 3 still elusive
To no one’s surprise, the Model 3 has now officially fallen behind its ramp-up schedule. The Model 3 was the first Tesla to launch on the originally announced schedule (the Roadster/S/X all had years of delay). But almost 3 months later, only 260 Model 3’s have been delivered, all to employees and people deep inside Tesla circles. It’s essentially a beta version stage, to work out kinks in the product and the process.
This stage was supposed to be over a month ago, with ~1500 wider-audience deliveries originally slated for September. But apparently it’s still ongoing... Hopefully they work those kinks out soon enough, and they probably will — but a couple more months delay to the Model 3’s hyper-ambitious production ramp won’t be a big shock either.
Anyhow, the delay, combined with Tesla’s decision to start with its more expensive flavor, means that the dream of an under-$40k Tesla will only materialize nationwide around mid-2018 at best.
So…. what are 150 miles good for?
Round numbers have magical marketing powers — ask anyone who tried to sell the same product for $99 and for $100. This is why the Gen 1 Leaf was originally pitched as a 100-mile EV… until the EPA poked a hole in that balloon with its (spot-on) 73-mile estimate. To be fair, you *could* squeeze 100 miles out of a 2011 Leaf, if you drove it at 40 MPH in perfect weather.
Likewise, with lots of PR pressure from Elon Musk, 200 miles have become a magical bar for EVs to cross in order to become “mainstream-viable”. At least in America. In practice, there is no single vehicle that meets every conceivable need. For example, if you go skiing every weekend and your favorite destination is a 70-mile drive up the mountains — and if there’s no charging option whatsoever at destination or along the way — then a 150-mile EV simply won’t cut it, because winter decreases the range by at least ~20%. However, good charging options, even at the halfway point, make this weekend trip completely doable.
More generally: when going out of town what you*really* care for is not so much the range, but a QC port and compatible QC stations along the way (that’s why I required QC in the head-to-head comparison). Without QC, on a multi-day trip your daily drive is essentially limited to the car’s range plus a little bit more.
By contrast, with QC… Present-day QC is still quite a bit slower than filling up on gas. However…
...it is still quicker than what people usually need to charge themselves!
On a long drive, most people do need to stop every once in a while. When we stop for lunch, it’s at least one hour, easily allowing the Leaf to finish quick-charging.
This spring we renewed our Leaf lease from an 84-mile 2014, to a 107-mile 2017 (it’s our 3rd Leaf lease, each one cheaper than the former). In August we went from Seattle to Oregon twice on consecutive weeks: once for the magical Total Eclipse, and once for a beach vacation. The longest daily drives were 230 miles on the eclipse trip and 255 miles on the beach trip. In all 4 directions we did 2 quick-charging stops — one for lunch, one for coffee. It works.
Extrapolate from 107 to 150 miles, and with adequate QC stations you can fairly easily do 350-400 miles in a day without impacting your schedule much. The main constraint is finding a location that has both QC and “people-charging”, at the right position for your charging stop. This bit is getting better every year now. Our Oregon trips were aided by the fact that Oregon already boasts one of the best — and one of the earliest — Leaf-compatible QC networks in the country. Little known fact: most of its funding (and also for the less impressive sibling WA network) came from the 2009 ARRA a.k.a. Stimulus. Thanks Obama! (pdf)
By the way, the 107-mile 2017 Leaf is now selling for a song. If you can find one, that is. Last month about 2/3 of the remaining US 2017 Leaf inventory was sold, leaving only ~500 across the nation. 107 miles started in 2016; you can already find them on the used market, starting around $15k. They come with an 8-year 100k-mile battery warranty. A new 2017 lease is probably a better deal if you can find one; but used 107-mile prices are sure to drop once Gen 2 hits the dealerships this winter.
So… will americans buy my 150-mile pitch?
Alas, despite being realistic on the merits, choosing a 150-mile EV as a household’s only car is still one mental step too far for most Americans. As the #RBPi manifesto says, I hope #Resistance can be a tie-breaker for some readers, but overall it’s a long shot.
The 150-mile Leaf’s true potential in the US market is with multi-car households. 57% of US households have more than one car. This includes the vast majority of families with 2 adults or multiple drivers. As I have been arguing since 2013, in most multi-car households, one of the cars can be replaced with a 70-mile EV even right now, with no loss of convenience. Suppose that after excluding families with no overnight charging access we’re left with half of those households; that’s still some 20-30 million cars that can be immediately replaced with short-range EVs. For reference, we have yet to reach even 1 million EVs on US roads, and this includes plug-in hybrids.
The real barrier an EV demand surge has been awareness and motivation. In the US…
- To most center- and right-leaning families, EVs have as much appeal as Eat Your Veggies to those who don’t.
- To most working-class families, EVs are rich white people’s toys, irrelevant for them. Nevermind that used 70-to-80-milers can be now found for $5-7k, and you save at least $1k/year on gas and maintenance.
- To many left-leaning families, EVs are a corporate ploy to fool you into thinking you can Save the Earth by Buying More Stuff.
The middle bullet seems to be cracking finally. Apparently, 6 of the 10 top used-car models in terms of how quickly they get sold, are EVs. So there’s that. But for these tens of millions of households that could use one EV but don’t… that two-digit range seems to be intimidating. I’m very hopeful that an affordable 150-mile EV, now with a less-polarizing look on it, will finally break that mental barrier and open the floodgates to this huge pool of potential demand among multi-car households.
last but not least: this is a global vehicle
Prospects for the 150-mile Leaf are far better in Europe, Japan and Korea. Over there:
- People think in kilometers, and 240 km sounds better (besides, they have their own hyper-optimistic range estimates which peg the range at >350 km)
- Global warming is not political football, but a real, universally acknowledged, and pressing problem
- What’s known here as a “compact” is considered a spacious family car
- People drive less, and generally shorter distances because countries are smaller
- Gas costs at least twice as much.
When the Gen 1 was launched, it was only made in Japan, but it was American drivers who got the first production Leafs, because this was the place to be. Now for the Gen 2, it is made in Japan, US and England — but Japan deliveries already started last week while US deliveries will wait a couple more months. The 107-mile Leaf was already a hit in Japan: nearly 15k units were sold there in 2016, totally dominating the local EV segment, vs. 14k in the US out of a 4x larger auto market and a 7x larger EV segment. One can only imagine how 150 miles will fare in Nissan’s home country.
In Europe, the ZOE subcompact made by Nissan’s Alliance sibling Renault, already sports 150-mile-ish range since last winter, and year-to-date is far and away the continent’s best-selling EV, with sales constrained mostly by production. So Nissan is clearly banking on many other markets besides the US (note to GM: Europe, Japan and Korea will love your Bolt).
In short, I won’t be surprised if 2018 sees two EVs break the 100,000 annual global sales barrier: the Leaf and the Model 3. For reference, the current annual-sales EV record was set by the Leaf in 2014, with 60k globally (half of them in the US). That record might be broken, barely, in 2017, only to be shattered next year. Who knows, perhaps other EVs will join the 6-figure-sales club in 2018 as well (Prius Prime PHEV?).
Do your part! Get yourself a used or new EV. Spread the word. And thank you for reading.