The Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir, Jeff Singer, Stephen Wolf, and Carolyn Fiddler, with additional contributions from David Jarman, Steve Singiser, Daniel Donner, James Lambert, David Beard, and Arjun Jaikumar.
Leading Off
● NJ-Sen: On Thursday, Democratic Sen. Bob Menendez's bribery trial ended with the judge declaring a mistrial after jurors failed to reach a unanimous verdict. It's unclear if the government will seek a new trial, though GOP Senate leader Mitch McConnell called for the Senate Ethics Committee to investigate Menendez. Menendez has been under indictment since April of 2015 on charges of bribery, fraud, conspiracy, and making false statements. Prosecutors allege that Menendez used his office to benefit a friend of his, wealthy eye surgeon Salomon Melgen, who had provided Menendez with lavish gifts, including private air travel.
Menendez has maintained his innocence and made it clear for years that he plans to seek re-election in 2018. Menendez remained as feisty as ever after the trial ended, with him accusing the FBI and Department of Justice of being unable to "understand that the Latino kid from Union City and Hudson County can grow up to be a United States senator and be honest." New Jersey's powerful Democratic leaders have been supporting his campaign this whole time, and that hasn't changed. On Thursday, just after the mistrial was declared, Gov.-elect Phil Murphy made it clear that he'd support Menendez if he runs again.
For the last two years, Democrats have worried that Menendez would be found guilty and resign while Republican Gov. Chris Christie was still in office, which would allow Christie to appoint a Republican senator in his place. But Murphy will replace Christie in January, and it looks very unlikely that anything could compel Menendez to step down before then. However, if Menendez is the Democratic nominee next year, he could cause his party problems even without a conviction hanging over his head. A recent Quinnipiac poll gave Menendez a negative 31-49 approval rating, while Suffolk gave him a bad 23-47 favorable rating last month.
New Jersey is a blue state, but Menendez may have just taken enough damage to put him in danger even in a good Democratic year. Even if Menendez runs and wins, Democrats won't be happy if they need to spend heavily in this expensive state to save him while other incumbents need help. However, it may be just too much to hope that Menendez loses renomination. New Jersey is a state where party leaders still have a great deal of influence in primaries, and as long as Democratic leaders stay with the senator, he won't be easy to beat. It also won't be easy for an outsider to raise the vast sums of money needed to get their name out here. We'll see how things develop, but no matter what happens next, Menendez may be in for some turbulence next year at the ballot box.
Senate
● AL-Sen: On Wednesday, four more women publicly accused Republican Roy Moore of past advances. One told Al.com that in 1991, when she was 28, she went to Moore's law office and he immediately began flirting with her and grabbed her buttocks. Another said that in 1977, when she was about 18, Moore asked for her number at a mall. A few days after she declined to give it, she recounts that she was summoned to her high school principle's office where Moore had called to ask her out. After she relented under pressure, she says that her date with Moore ended with him giving her an unwanted and "forceful" kiss in his car in a dark parking lot.
But no matter what, Republicans seem to be stuck with Moore on the Dec. 12 ballot. While Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell and his friends have pitched crazy idea after crazy idea to try and get Gov. Kay Ivey to postpone the election, Ivey made it clear that, "The election's going to be December the 12th." The state GOP, which may have actually been able to take the Republican nomination away from Moore, also affirmed that they were standing by him. The White House also declined to call for Moore to drop out. Moore himself once again declared that McConnell should be the one to step down, not him, and attended a rally featuring a multitude of anti-abortion and anti-LGBT speakers. So no, he's not dropping out.
On Thursday, Fox News released another poll from the Democratic pollster Anderson Robbins Research and the GOP firm Shaw & Company Research, and they gave Democrat Doug Jones a 50-42 lead over Moore. Their last poll from mid-October found a 42-42 tie, which was Moore's weakest showing before the Washington Post first reported about Moore's predatory behavior last week. But there's a few big reasons to be cautious about this poll. Fox also asked who voters would back if Sen. Luther Strange, whom Moore beat in the September GOP primary, was running, and gave Jones a 48-38 lead. Strange has his flaws, but it's incredibly hard to believe that he'd be doing anywhere near as badly as Moore in this very conservative state.
One other possible red flag is that this poll gives Barack Obama a 52-45 favorable rating in what was always one of his very worst states. It's always possible that enough Republicans are so disgusted that they won't vote and that the Dec. 12 electorate will be considerably more Democratic than normal, or that Moore's taint is so bad that voters have soured on the GOP and see Democrats in a whole new light. However, it's probably more likely that this sample is just far too optimistic for Team Blue. We're sure to see more polls here, and hopefully, they'll give us a better idea where things stand.
● MN-Sen: On Thursday morning, broadcaster and model Leann Tweeden accused Democratic Sen. Al Franken of forcibly kissing her while rehearsing a skit on a USO tour in 2006 and then later groping her breasts while she slept, a moment captured in a photo that showed Franken’s hands either on or over Tweeden’s chest. In an initial statement in response, Franken said, "I certainly don't remember the rehearsal for the skit in the same way, but I send my sincerest apologies to Leeann. As to the photo, it was clearly intended to be funny but wasn't. I shouldn't have done it." In response, Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell called for an ethics investigation into the matter.
Franken soon thereafter released a lengthier statement in which he expressed much greater remorse, saying he wanted to apologize “to Leeann, to everyone else who was part of that tour, to everyone who has worked for me, to everyone I represent, and to everyone who counts on me to be an ally and supporter and champion of women.” Franken said there was “no excuse” for the photo, saying, “It's obvious how Leeann would feel violated by that picture. And, what's more, I can see how millions of other women would feel violated by it.” He also added, “While I don't remember the rehearsal for the skit as Leeann does, I understand why we need to listen to and believe women's experiences.”
Franken further said that an ethics investigation should take place, something top Senate Democrats also urged. The Senate Ethics Committee has yet to say what it will do, but given the demands of Senate leaders, it appears likely it will act.
● NE-Sen: Nebraska Democrats haven't had any luck statewide in years, and GOP Sen. Deb Fischer doesn't look like she'll be in any danger in 2018. Lincoln City Councilor Jane Raybould, who has little opposition in the Democratic primary, is hoping to change that impression with a new poll from PPP arguing that the incumbent is vulnerable even in this conservative state. The survey gives Fischer a 42-31 lead against Raybould, but also gives Fischer an upside down 35-45 approval rating. Team Blue absolutely would love to put another Senate seat into play, but even in a very favorable environment, it's going to take a huge investment from national Democrats to have any shot here. That’s a lot to ask for when so many Democrats are defending tough seats.
● PA-Sen: On Thursday, Rep. Lou Barletta unveiled endorsements from every member of Pennsylvania's House delegation. Barletta is the clear frontrunner in the GOP primary to take on Democratic Sen. Bob Casey.
Gubernatorial
● CT-Gov: On Thursday, Lt. Gov. Nancy Wyman announced that she would not seek the Democratic nod to succeed her boss, retiring Gov. Dan Malloy. Wyman, a former state comptroller, has deep ties to labor and progressive activists, and some potential candidates said they wouldn't run if she did. Some donors may also have been waiting to see what she would do before contributing to any of the many Democrats who are raising money, and we'll see if their fundraising improves now that she's said no.
● FL-Gov: Wealthy attorney John Morgan has been considering seeking the Democratic nomination for a long, long, time, and he's going to take a bit longer to make up his mind. Morgan recently said that he'd have a decision sometime in the first quarter of 2018.
Meanwhile, another Democrat is up with the first TV commercial of the campaign. All About Florida, a PAC allied with Miami Beach Mayor Philip Levine, is spending $800,000 on a spot that will air for five weeks. Levine is shown telling a crowd that it's time to "address climate change by addressing Tallahassee's climate of denial," and calling for a living wage.
● GA-Gov: Tech executive Clay Tippins, a retired Navy SEAL, filed paperwork to seek the GOP nomination back in September, and he announced this week that he was running. To say that Tippins starts the contest with no name recognition would be an understatement. A recent primary poll from the GOP outfits Landmark Communications and Rosetta Stone that was not conducted for any client found Tippins taking just 1 percent of the vote, while he also barely registered in released internal polls from primary rivals Casey Cagle and Brian Kemp. We'll see if Tippins has the personal resources and connections to raise the type of money he'll need to get his name out.
● MI-Gov: Civil litigation involving candidates for public office is a frequent occurrence, but much of the time, such lawsuits don't have an impact in the political realm. This case, however, seems as though it could be more serious for businessman Shri Thanedar, who is seeking the Democratic nomination in Michigan's gubernatorial race.
Earlier this week, a private equity firm called High Street Capital, which had purchased a controlling stake in a chemical testing company founded by Thanedar called Avomeen, filed a suit in federal court accusing Thanedar of making "fraudulent and misleading" claims to inflate his company's value. Thanedar told the Detroit News, "I patently deny every claim contained in this document and intend to fight it," and added, "Because this is a pending legal matter, I am prohibited from saying more at this time."
Thanedar made $20 million from the sale of Avomeen, and he's poured $6 million of his own money into his campaign, giving him by far the largest war-chest of anyone in either primary. But there's no telling, of course, what impact this lawsuit might have. It could proceed too slowly to affect next year's elections, or it could get quickly settled out of court, or it might prove meritless. By the same token, it could prove to be a serious distraction or result in a negative judgment for Thanedar, if not both. It's certainly too soon to tell, but aggrieved private equity firms tend to make for serious adversaries.
● MS-Gov: Miss odd-numbered gubernatorial election years already? Let's just dive right into 2019! Gov. Phil Bryant will be termed-out, and while there are no shortage of fellow Republicans who could run to succeed him, the list of potential Democratic candidates is much shorter. But Attorney General Jim Hood, who is one of just two Democrats who holds statewide office in the entire Deep South, said on Wednesday that he's considering. Hood said he is "exploring that idea, I am raising money to get in a position where uh we can do that, if that's what my wife decides we need to do," and expects to decide within the next year.
Hood has stubbornly survived in Mississippi as the GOP has won control of almost everything else. Hood won re-election 2015 by a 55-45 margin as Bryant was beating his little-known Democratic foe 66-32. But Hood has talked about running for higher office for years but never done it, so we'll need to see what happens. However, while it's unlikely we're ever going to see a good year for a Mississippi Democrat to run statewide for a long, long, long time, an open seat race with a Republican in the White House may give them their best opportunity for a break through for the foreseeable future.
● WY-Gov: Attorney Harriet Hageman, who served as a delegate to last year's Republican National Convention, recently filed for this slow-to-develop open seat race, but she says she's still deciding whether to run. It's unclear if Hageman has the connections she's need to mount a serious bid.
Meanwhile, a Republican who almost certainly does have the connections to mount a serious bid may be deciding soon. Secretary of State Ed Murray recently told the Wyoming Tribune Eagle that he "hope[s] to make a decision soon – hopefully within a month." State Treasurer Mark Gordon said last month that he probably wouldn't make up his mind before March, though he told the paper recently that he's thinking about a bid more seriously now than he was a few months ago.
House
● CA-49: Democrat Sara Jacobs, who served as a policy adviser for Hillary Clinton's presidential bid and who has held positions at the United Nations and in the State Department, announced this week that she was joining the field to take on Republican Rep. Darrell Issa. Politico reported back in September that Jacobs, a native of the San Diego area who recently moved back from the East Coast, had caught the attention of EMILY's List, though we'll see if they get involved here. Jacobs is the granddaughter of Irwin Jacobs, the co-founder of the telecommunications giant Qualcomm, so she may have some good useful in the business world.
This coastal seat, which includes part of the San Diego suburbs, swung from 52-46 Romney to 51-43 Clinton, and Issa only won re-election 50.3-49.7. Environmental attorney Mike Levin, real estate investor Paul Kerr, and Marine veteran Doug Applegate, who was Issa's 2016 opponent, have been running here for months.
● FL-27: EMILY's List, an influential group that backs pro-choice Democratic women, has taken sides in another crowded primary and endorsed former state judge Mary Barzee Flores. The only other woman running here is Miami Beach Commissioner Kristen Rosen Gonzalez, but she has had trouble raising money compared to the rest of the field. This Miami-area seat is a top Democratic pickup opportunity, and the Republican candidates have so far raised a shockingly low amount of cash as they try to succeed retiring Rep. Ileana Ros-Lehtinen.
● IA-03: Insurance company owner Eddie Mauro has officially only been exploring a bid for the Democratic nomination for months, but he raised $84,000 and self-funded another $100,000 during the third quarter of 2017. Mauro, a former school baseball and football coach, announced this week that he was officially running. Mauro, who hails from a well-known Des Moines South Side family, has only run for office once, losing his 2016 primary to a sitting state representative 67-33. A few other Democrats are challenging GOP Rep. David Young in this 49-45 Trump seat in central Iowa, and real estate company president Theresa Greenfield looks like an early frontrunner.
● PA-15: After two months of consideration, Dauphin County Commissioner Mike Pries announced this week that he would seek the GOP nod for this open Lehigh Valley seat. Pries' Dauphin base only makes up about 9 percent of this seat, so he may need a lot to go right to have a chance in the primary. So far, state Reps. Ryan Mackenzie and Justin Simmons and Lehigh county Commissioner Marty Nothstein are running to succeed retiring Rep. Charlie Dent. This district went from 51-48 Romney to 52-44 Trump, and the Democratic field is still taking shape. Pastor Greg Edwards entered the race in mid-September and raised $57,000, and while a few other local Democrats have made noises about running, no one else has jumped in since Dent announced his retirement two months ago.
● TX-21: While Austin City Councilor Ellen Troxclair was mentioned as a potential GOP candidate to succeed retiring Rep. Lamar Smith, she signed on help state Rep. Jason Isaac's campaign instead. Isaac (aka not Captain Gabriel Lorca) and retired CIA officer Eric Burkhart so far have the primary to themselves in this 52-42 Trump seat with less than a month to go before the Dec. 11 filing deadline.
● VA-02: On Thursday, retired Air Force Col. Dave Belote dropped his bid for the Democratic nomination to face GOP Rep. Scott Taylor, citing his mother's health. Belote, who chairs the Virginia Beach Democratic Party, had shown some promise as a candidate, raising $175,000 during the third quarter of the year.
While Democrats fielded only an underfunded perennial candidate last cycle, this is a race they can't afford to ignore next year. This Hampton Roads seat backed Trump 49-45, and according to Miles Coleman, Democrat Ralph Northam carried it 51-47 in last week's gubernatorial race. However, it's not clear who will step up to replace Belote. State Sen. Lynwood Lewis, who represents part of the Norfolk area, has reportedly been interested. While the National Journal reported in August that Lewis would decide in the next month, however, we've heard nothing from him since then.
Grab Bag
● Statehouse Action: This Week in Statehouse Action: November and Everything After edition features continuing Virginia action, updates on GOP recall shenanigans in Nevada, and the answer to the burning question of whether Minnesota’s governor can veto the legislature’s entire operating budget.
Sick of scrolling to the bottom of the Digest each week to get the latest state political updates? Sign up here to get This Week in Statehouse Action delivered hot and fresh to your inbox each Thursday (except next Thursday, because Thanksgiving)!
