Last year, in the early buildup to the election (January 2016), I posted “What Donald Trump and Jimmy Carter have in common”. At that time, the Republicans hadn’t settled on Trump yet. It was starting to become clear that Trump might win the nomination (and folks here were giddy about the Republicans’ seeming self-destruction). Still, it was bucking conventional wisdom to suggest that Trump might able to win the general election. A Trump presidency filled me with dread, but took comfort in the data-backed skepticism of Trump’s general election prospects.
The comparison of Carter to Trump in 2016 still holds true today in 2017. Though that gave me dread in 2016, it gives me hope in 2017. The subsequent election of 1980 holds lessons about 2020 that feel less dreadful IF we learn from history. The history lesson: ”Jimmy Carter, populism and Donald Trump” (Medium/@robla) , a 2017 followup on my 2016 speculation. This is isn’t meant as an “I told you so” editorial (at least, not entirely :-), but more as a framework to think about 2020.
In my followup, I revisit the 6-point comparison that I made then, and how it applied to both 1976 and 2016, providing a much more detailed analysis which is hopefully more correct and coherent narrative.
There’s a lot of source material summarized in my followup and put into context. Here’s a partial bibliography:
- George McGovern called “The Last Populist”, by Ryan Cooper of The Nation.
- Joshua Mound’s New Republic story describing this in “What Democrats Still Don’t Get About George McGovern”. McGovern’s loss galvanized the neoliberal backlash
- Damon Linker’s 2014 editorial in The Link about Mitt Romney, where he laments the “laughable” campaign to get Romney to run.
- Rick Perlstein’s Nixonland (2008) and Radio Open Source’s 2017 discussion of Nixon — Nixon’s Southern Strategy plays a huge role as an adversary to the New Deal, and laying the foundation for anti-government sentiment exploited by his successors
- Much about Frank Church, the Democratic U.S. Senator from Idaho. His obituary in the Washington Post talks about Church’s upbringing during FDR’s administration. Church led the “Church Committee” hearings in the mid-1970s, and was prominent enough to win a Democratic nominations in Nebraska, Idaho, Oregon, and Montana in 1976. However, he lost his senate seat to a Republican in 1980, when Reagan won Idaho in a 41-point landslide.
- The infamous LBJ campaign commercial: “Confessions of a Republican” (video via Walter Einenkel @ Daily Kos). The actor (Bill Bogert) was actually a Republican at the time, and was interviewed by Rachel Maddow in 2016, lamenting the continuation of the Goldwater wave.
- Ari Berman’s “The Redemption of Howard Dean”, which lauds Dean’s 50-state strategy
- Jimmy Kimmel’s very compelling speculation about Trump’s populist appeal
- Speaking of populism: “Dawn of the Berniecratic Party” in U.S. News as well as some 2013 speculation about a 2016 Elizabeth Warren run (in The New Republic).
- A wonderful 1977 Saturday Night Live skit where Aykroyd portrays Jimmy Carter.
- James Fallows’ 1979 Carter became ”The Passionless Presidency”, describing the chaos inside the Carter administration. Fallows had resigned as Carter’s chief speechwriter, and Carter’s Press Secretary (Jody Powell) was quoted in People as saying: “Goddammit, Jim, this is the kind of thing you send as a letter to the President. You don’t publish it.”
- A story on Hidden Brain about Allan Lichtman — Lichtman also predicted that Trump would win. Lichtman also now believes Trump will be impeached.
The full writeup has a lot more context (because: more words!). I spent a lot of time with the source material to refine my 2017 followup.
In a conversation with a Republican, trying to compare Trump to Hitler will get you written off as a crackpot. Want to really get under a Republican’s skin? Tell them that “Donald Trump is the Republican version of Jimmy Carter. The Democratic nominee (whoever we pick!) is going to really going to kick Trump’s ass in the 2020 election!” The great thing about that: Republicans like Pat Buchanan refer to Carter’s presidency as “the days of malaise”, and don’t have a lot of respect for Carter. These are the “days of malaise”, and in 2020, we’re going to put an end to them.