The Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir, Jeff Singer, Stephen Wolf, and Carolyn Fiddler, with additional contributions from David Jarman, Steve Singiser, Daniel Donner, James Lambert, David Beard, and Arjun Jaikumar.
Leading Off
● AL-Sen: The shocking pedophilia revelations regarding Republican nominee Roy Moore in the upcoming Senate special election have drawn astonishing condemnation from top national Republicans. However, major state Republicans have yet to desert their reprehensible nominee, and we can count GOP Gov. Kay Ivey among them when she said the following on Friday:
"I'm going to cast my ballot on December the 12th, and I do believe the nominee of the party is the one I'll vote for," Ivey said. "I believe in the Republican Party, what we stand for, and most important, we need to have a Republican in the United States Senate to vote on things like the Supreme Court justices, other appointments the Senate has to confirm and make major decisions. So that's what I plan to do, vote for Republican nominee Roy Moore."
[...]
She was asked if she believed Moore's accusers.
"I certainly have no reason to disbelieve any of them," Ivey said. "The timing is a little curious. But at the same time, I have no reason to disbelieve them."
It represents breathtaking moral bankruptcy for Ivey to back a candidate whom she admits she believes is a pedophile simply because they'll further her party's quest for power, but this is the same sort of partisanship-over-everything attitude that put Donald Trump in the White House. However, a critical number of typical GOP voters may not share her stance, unlike in last year’s presidential race.
Change Research is the latest pollster to find Democrat Doug Jones surging into a lead. The firm says Jones is winning by 46-43, which represents an improvement for him compared Moore's 44-40 edge in their previous survey, which was in the field from Nov. 9 through Nov. 11 immediately as the scandal was breaking.
Pollsters have widely found that the revelations against Moore appear to have hurt him badly, though they disagree over just where things stand. Given the difficulty of polling in such a shifting environment, it's hard to know if Jones really has taken a lead or whether more Republican partisans will behave like their governor and hold their noses to vote for Moore.
Senate
● MI-Sen, MI-06: On Friday, GOP Rep. Fred Upton announced that he would seek re-election to the House rather than challenge Democratic Sen. Debbie Stabenow next year. Upton, who has represented the Kalamazoo area since 1987, had spent months mulling a bid for the upper chamber. Over the summer, a "source close" to the congressman even told MIRS News that they were 90 percent sure that he would run, which is another good reminder why you shouldn't count someone as a candidate until they actually announce they're running, no matter how likely their bid appears to be.
A few Republicans entered the Senate race while Upton was still debating his plans. Businessman and veteran John James actually led Upton 24-19 in a recent hypothetical GOP primary poll, and former state Supreme Court Justice Robert Young, Jr. has been in for a while. However, neither Republican had much cash at the end of September, though donors may take another look at them now that Upton's finally a no. Venture capitalist Sandy Pensler has also expressed interest. Other Republicans may also come out of the woodwork now as well.
As for Upton, he may still have to work hard to win re-election. While his 6th District went from 50-49 Romney to 51-43 Trump, a few Democrats have entered the race against him. Upton has always won re-election by double digits, but if 2018 is a good Democratic year, he could have a much more eventful campaign than usual.
● NJ-Sen: Flame off. Ex-Sen. Bob Torricelli had been making noises about running to replace Sen. Robert Menendez for years, but hours after Menendez's bribery trial ended in a mistrial, he announced he would not be launching a comeback against his fellow Democrat. "The Torch" dropped his re-election bid in 2002 following a series of seamy revelations that he'd accepted lavish gifts from businessman David Chang, so he never exactly was an ideal candidate for this seat. Torricelli insisted on Thursday that he was never interested in challenging Menendez in a primary and would support him if he runs for re-election next year.
While Menendez's numbers took a tumble during his trial, New Jersey's powerful Democratic leaders have lined up behind him. Notably, Gov.-elect Phil Murphy has committed to supporting Menendez while South Jersey political boss George Norcross and his brother, Rep. Donald Norcross, are both in his corner as well. Tellingly, no noteworthy Democrats have shown any interest in challenging Menendez in a primary. Menendez himself has not announced if he'll seek re-election, but his adviser Michael Soliman said an announcement is "in the coming weeks" and that "all things indicate to him running for re-election."
Menendez's problems may give the GOP an opening in this blue state, but it's not clear who is considering challenging him. Outgoing Assemblyman Jack Ciattarelli hasn't ruled it out, though he added that "[a]ny future run for statewide office, however, depends on whether or not the NJGOP is open to rebranding itself." Ciattarelli ran for governor this year and lost the primary 47-31 to Lt. Gov. Kim Guadagno.
Gubernatorial
● MI-Gov: Detroit Mayor Mike Duggan has said time after time that he won't seek the Democratic nomination for this open seat, but according to The Detroit News' Daniel Howes, Duggan is looking for someone to challenge primary frontrunner Gretchen Whitmer, a former state Senate minority leader. It's not clear what Duggan's beef with Whitmer is, but Howes writes that the mayor recently urged wealthy attorney Mark Bernstein to reconsider his plans not to run. Howes doesn't say how Bernstein responded, but Bernstein endorsed Whitmer back in July, so it would be quite awkward for him to change course and run against her.
Howes also writes that, with Matt Simoncini stepping down as CEO of the manufacturing company Lear Corporation, there's speculation he's interested in seeking the Democratic nod for governor. Simoncini, who is reportedly close to Duggan, was recently asked about a bid and said "I don't see that in the cards," adding, "It's just a life plan." That's not quite a no, but it doesn't sound like he's chomping at the bit to run.
● OH-Gov: State Supreme Court Justice Bill O'Neill may be the sleaziest guy running in a Democratic primary that could include Jerry Springer. After broadcaster and model Leeann Tweeden accused Minnesota Sen. Al Franken of forcibly kissing her and groping her in 2006, O'Neill published a Facebook note that began, "Now that the dogs of war are calling for the head of Senator Al Franken I believe it is time to speak up on behalf of all heterosexual males," and described how he had been "sexually intimate with approximately 50 very attractive females." And yes, O'Neill confirmed he had written the post.
In case his Facebook post wasn't bad enough, O'Neill went on to defend Alabama Senate GOP nominee Roy Moore. O'Neill told Cleveland.com that Moore, whom multiple women have accused of predatory behavior, "apparently seems to be a challenged individual when it comes to morality. I think that's very, very clear. He's been convicted of nothing and he's never had the opportunity to defend himself and that violates due process in America. The media is about to determine the election of a United States Senate campaign."
Things went from bad to worse for O'Neill when his campaign manager resigned in light of the candidate's reprehensible Facebook post. Of course, O'Neill himself may not be in the campaign for much longer. State Democratic Party chair David Pepper revealed that O'Neill had told him just this past Thursday that he would drop out of the race if Richard Cordray joins the Democratic primary, which looks increasingly likely. Finally, O’Neill himself told WKYC TV reporter Monica Robins on Friday that he'll likely drop out of the governor's race on Nov. 24. No time like the present, buddy ...
House
● IL-03: Democratic Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand, who represents the state of New York but is nationally prominent, has announced her endorsement of marketing consultant Marie Newman in Illinois' 3rd Congressional District. Newman, whom Daily Kos itself has also previously endorsed, is waging a progressive primary challenge against socially conservative Democratic Rep. Dan Lipinski, who often votes with Republicans on key issues like restricting reproductive rights. Gillibrand's endorsement is notable in that she is opposing the re-election of a fellow sitting Democratic member of Congress.
● IL-06: Illinois Reps. Jan Schakowsky and Cheri Bustos have endorsed fellow Democrat Kelly Mazeski, who serves on the Barrington Hills Planning Commission, in the race against Republican Rep. Peter Roskam in this swingy seat in the Chicago suburbs. Mazeski faces several other notable Democrats in the primary, and she had the most cash-on-hand of any Democrat at the end of the third quarter, with $343,000 in the bank.
● PA-15: On Friday, state Rep. Justin Simmons announced he was dropping his bid for the GOP nomination in this open Lehigh Valley seat. Simmons launched a primary campaign against Rep. Charlie Dent days before Dent announced he was retiring, with Simmons positioning himself as the true-red Trump fan in the contest. Just before he left the race, however, Dent released several friendly messages Simmons sent him last year, including a request for help with a fundraiser and an August text asking, "Do you think there's any chance the party can replace Trump on the top of the ticket?" Things didn't get much better for Simmons afterwards. Two days before he dropped out, Morning Call published a story revealing that Simmons had missed almost 500 votes since he arrived in the legislature in 2011.
State Rep. Ryan Mackenzie, Lehigh County Commissioner Marty Nothstein, and Dauphin County Commissioner Mike Pries are all competing for the GOP nod for this 52-44 Trump seat. Additionally, former CIA officer Scott Uehlinger, who was a delegate to the 2016 Republican National Convention, quietly announced at some point that he was running here. Uehlinger has written columns for right-wing sites and hosts a podcast.
● TX-02: Businessman Rick Walker, who serves as CEO of a firm that assists other companies in securing certification for being environmentally friendly, is the latest Republican to join the race for retiring GOP Rep. Ted Poe's open seat. Walker doesn't appear to have run for office before, and it's unclear if he has what it takes to run a strong race. State Rep. Kevin Roberts is the only other Republican running in the primary so far, but others may join the contest for this suburban Houston district, which lurched leftward from 63-36 Romney to just 52-43 Trump last year.
● VA-02: Retired Air Force Col. Dave Belote dropped out of the race to take on GOP Rep. Scott Taylor on Thursday, but it sounds like national Democrats already have a new candidate. Rep. Donald McEachin, who represents a neighboring seat and serves as a DCCC regional vice chair, told the National Journal's Ally Mutnick that he was excited about the prospect of Navy veteran Elaine Luria running. However, Luria herself has not yet said anything publicly, though she left the military in the spring and also runs a few local paint-your-own mermaid studios in Virginia Beach (mermaids have become this seaside city’s unofficial emblem in recent decades). As McEachin notes, the armed forces have a huge presence in this area, so Luria's career in the Navy could be a big asset. (Taylor himself is a former Navy SEAL.)
McEachin also told Mutnick that state Sen. Lynwood Lewis, who had been considering a bid of his own, has decided not to run. That may be for the best, though: Virginia Republicans hold a slim 21-19 majority in the state Senate, so if Lewis ran and won a seat in the House, that would necessitate an expensive contest to replace him. (Lewis himself won his seat in a 2014 special election by all of nine votes.) Taylor's 2nd District, which includes all of Virginia Beach and part of Norfolk, is quite competitive. The seat backed Trump 49-45, and according to analyst Miles Coleman, Democrat Ralph Northam carried it 51-47 in this month's gubernatorial race.
